Thread by @GoodwinMJ

Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread

We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want

One of the reasons that many in Britain have been repeatedly shocked by political change -Ukip, Corbyn, Brexit- is because they've not been paying sufficient attention to public opinion & voters

The seeds of future revolts have already been planted

The following draws on some work out today using the British Social Attitudes survey & @whatukthinks and some bits I've been doing for @jrf_uk and others

First, Conservative voters today are far more pro-Leave than they were only 3 years ago

Large majority just want out

Second, they've become far more gloomy about how immigration is changing Britain

Fewer than 1 in 4 think it is enriching the nation's cultural life

Third, when given the option --"free movement for free trade?" -- an overwhelming majority say no

Most want free movement to stop

Might be tempting to think these views might change or that these voters could be won over by a clever campaign or policy pitch...

That's very unlikely. Because we are talking about people's values, or the elephant that is driving the rider, and those instincts don't really change.

For example...

This is what's happened to the Conservative Party electorate in terms of those values

It's become far more socially conservative or 'authoritarian'

This partly reflects the way in which, since 2016, Conservative Party has hoovered up ex-UKIP voters but also something else ...

The Conservatives under May have also attracted a lot more non-graduates who also tend to hold more socially conservative outlooks

Worth remembering too that many more of today's Conservative voters --unlike the days of Maastricht -- are open to switching their votes

Around 7 in 10 Leavers had either already abandoned the mainstream for UKIP or said they would consider doing so -- so this electorate in my view at least is a lot less 'tribal' than it once was

This outlook is why a few days ago

-only 33% of current Conservative voters told @Survation the #Chequers deal was 'faithful to the referendum'

-and only 34% think it is the 'right deal for Britain'

I hear Tories saying "well our voters don't have anywhere to go". Sounds like New Labour types in 2000s who then later realised they'd lost a big chunk of their electorate, either to UKIP or Cons or simply to apathy

We also need to remember -as @jon_mellon has shown- that overall rates of volatility in Britain today (I.e. ppl switching votes) are at some of the highest levels on record

One big risk for the Cons is a UKIP 2.0 party. But an equally big if not greater risk is simply widespread apathy -- committed Leavers just stay home after concluding that politics makes no difference

Some Cons say "oh well the fear of Corbyn" will turn them out. I'm not convinced. For these voters Brexit & immigration control are existential, value-led issues. The level of disillusionment after a "soft sell-out" deal will be profound.

The next general election also looks set to be the 4th in recent history that will be entirely fear-based (Corbyn is a threat!!) But the potency of fear has arguably worn off. Even in 2015 with "Red Ed + SNP" 4 million voters decamped to UKIP ..

So it may be that the gaping disconnect may yet deliver some profound effects. Perhaps a recast Conservative Party, fairly widespread apathy (especially among the working class) or something new altogether. But 'business as usual' for the Con Party seems very unlikely /ends

My bad should be the other way. Fewer than 1 in 4 who think positively about cultural effects of imm now voting Con. But pt remains -more sceptical about migration.
This is what happens when you do threads on a beach with a cocktail