Britain is about to transition from a debate about 'Brexinomics' to a debate about 'Corbynomics'
Lots of people in the City are already having that debate
Sep 12, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Few interesting bits on Sweden Democrat support from exit poll data
1) National populists were the most popular party among men 2) Very different story among women - just a 4 pt increase on last election in 2014. Unlike Le Pen in France not much evidence the national populists are closing the well-documented 'gender gap'
Sep 10, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Agree that some media coverage on Sweden is misleading but I also think these short-term takes & arguments pointing to the "failure" of Sweden Democrats are helpful because they distract us from the long-term currents swirling beneath Europe's democracies. Here's what matters 1/
1. Many of Europe's party systems are fragmenting. I'm stunned that some are arguing Sweden reflects 'success' of the mainstream. Fragmentation means more parties & less coherent coalitions, which makes it more difficult to deliver the strong & stable governments that EU needs
Sep 9, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
A few reflections on Sweden's exit polls
1. The centre-left Social democrats average 25.8% in exit polls -this would be their lowest vote for more than a century (since 1908). The decline of social democracy in Europe continues
#val2018#SwedenElection2. The national populist Sweden Democrats average 17.8% in the exit polls. This would be their best result on record (+4.9 pts on the last election) and is broadly in line with the dip in their support picked up in polls during final week of campaign #val2018
Sep 6, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
3 days until Sweden's election
The average across all polls in final week
(change since 2014 election)
Social Democrats 25% (-6)
Sweden Democrats 18% (+5.1)
Moderates 17.5% (-5.8)
Left Party 10% (+4.3)
Centre 9% (+2.9)
Christian Dem 6% (+1.4)
Liberal 6% (+0.6)
Green 5% (-1.9)
The centre-left Social Democrats look set to finish 1st although this could also be the party's lowest share of the vote since 1908, reflecting the general decline of social democracy across Europe
Sep 4, 2018 • 84 tweets • 17 min read
The latest election in Europe:
On Sunday, Swedes go to the polls in the latest election in Europe. Let's first put the election in wider context
Aug 13, 2018 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
Why Britain's Conservatives should do all they can to avoid an election
/A short thread
It's no secret that the only thing uniting Conservative MPs is not wanting to go to the country
Jul 24, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Remember that torrential rain on Britain's EU referendum day?
New study finds it probably hurt LEAVE!
"if the referendum had taken place on a sunny day, there would have been a small increase in the margin of victory for Vote Leave"
"rainfall could not have swung the result of the EU Referendum. Even by a generous estimation for Remain we calculate referendum would have produced a win for Vote Leave: 51.9%–48.1%, a result almost identical to the actual results, a margin of approximately 1.29 million votes"
Jul 13, 2018 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I posted a thread earlier this week about how the Conservative Party electorate has changed since 2015 & why that poses a risk post-Chequers
Now we have some numbers on what these key groups for today's Conservative Party actually think about the deal (thread reboot)
Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread
We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want
Jun 24, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I see three plausible avenues for the radical right in Britain 1/
Exit - key groups in UKIP/Leave coalition simply drift into apathy after concluding they will not get the economic and social reform they thought Brexit would deliver. Middle class/working class turnout differentials already very large. May grow further
Jun 17, 2018 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Germany are now 5-1 on Betfair. There's £17 million being gambled right now #GERMEX
Jun 15, 2018 • 50 tweets • 8 min read
A little thread on what's happening in Europe /
So we have just had some new data on what's on the minds of people in Europe
May 28, 2018 • 47 tweets • 5 min read
Good morning from Italy -
You might have picked up that there is a political crisis unfolding
May 20, 2018 • 74 tweets • 10 min read
Once upon a time in Italy ....
Tomorrow could bring confirmation of a new government between the populist 5 Star movement and the hard right League
May 17, 2018 • 71 tweets • 6 min read
What is happening to politics in Europe?
A rather long thread/
Italy looks set to host the first openly populist government in post-war Europe