A 'Greatest Hits' collection of slides on #Brexit & @BorderIrish

[for those covering the topic in weeks to come
& who might value a few prompt cards] 🤓

Inc. @BelfastAgmt, #crossborder #customs #backstop #chequers #BorderTech, NI party & public views.

qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-irish-b… 1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement

2/12

Getting the feeling that there's too much #brexit #backstop bravado and too little sense?

Howsabout a 4 slide summary from @DPhinnemore & me setting out what we can be pretty sure of and what the UK/EU (dis)agree on - as viewed from Northern Ireland.

1/5 1st: a lack of progress on the Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agmt.
All these colours have to turn green (i.e. agreed in principle & text) before we get that Deal for exit day next March.

Note that red circle - backstop is intended to be trumped at some point.
2/5

A quick response to the ERG report on @BorderIrish.

First, to be welcomed:
- It has been published
- It underlines that a ‘hard’ border NI/IRL is ‘totally undesirable’
- It sees customs measures as not altering NI's constitutional position
- It makes no mention of drones.
1/ It interprets 'no hard border' specifically to mean 'no physical infrastructure at the border'.
This appears to mean no limit to checks + inspections away from the border & entailing huge administrative burdens for cross-border traders.
So ‘no hard border’ ≠ frictionless.
2/

Govt technical notes on the effects of a No Deal #Brexit will be released from next week.

Here are the areas covered, reported by @alexGspence
& @AlbertoNardelli
(How long does it takes to scroll the list?):

Air services

Animal breeding

Aviation safety

Aviation security
... ...
Batch testing of medicine

Blood safety

Broadcasting

Chemicals regulation

Civil judicial cooperation

Civil nuclear

Climate

Commercial road haulage

Common Travel Area

Company law

Competition

Consumer protection

Cross-border gas trading

Customs and borders

Data
...

104 pages of the #Brexit #WhitePaper reduced to 10 slides.
Especially for those concerned for @BorderIrish, @BelfastAgmt,
& with more sense than time.

@DPhinnemore & I have scrutinised the WP in light of #JointReport commitments to NI/IRL & the UK's alternative #backstop.
1/10 A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).

The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.

2/10

There is a lot that is very welcome & very good to see in the UK Govt #Brexit White Paper, from the point of view of Northern Ireland, North/South cooperation & @BelfastAgmt

Here's a wee thread of positivity

bit.ly/2LfeIQk

1/ There is repeated mention of the UK & EU 'meeting their shared commitments to Northern Ireland & Ireland', esp. in Exec Summary.

And it states the UK wishes to see a future UK-EU partnership 'honouring the letter & the spirit of the Belfast (‘Good Friday’) Agreement'.

2/

First blatant non-sequitur of the #WhitePaper: FTA will give continued frictionless access at the UK/EU border.

Unless working assumption is that the 'friction' can be managed 'away from' the border, which is a distinct possibility.
Will keep reading... It's a 'free trade area', but not as we know it.

Recap of debate in House of Lords y'day on Amendment 25 re: Irish #border in EU Withdrawal Bill #Brexit
HoL had tabled an amendment specifying no checks & controls of any sort. Pared-back version offered by govt in compromise was passed.
Only 1 dissenting voice @PeterHain
(1/7) Lord Duncan said govt accepted thrust of amendment but made 3 changes to ensure it's 'fit for the statute book':
- to reflect fact W'drawal Agmt =btn UK & EU not IRL
- to refer to '98 NI Act re: N/S cooperation
- tighten wording (but said still inc. range of checks/controls)
2/7

*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10 Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10

Here's a thread on the #Brexit #Backstop, the #Border and NI/IRL,
in which I try to succinctly explain why I think the UK govt has got itself in an unnecessary pickle on this one,
& how it might get out of it.

1/11 The Protocol is intended as ‘insurance’ in case a future UK-EU agreement is insufficient to meet the commitments made in the Joint Report bit.ly/2Bgjvj6. In that sense it is *already* conditional & envisaged as temporary.
It is a backstop, not a precursor.

2/11

5 slides on the #Brexit #Backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland from @DPhinnemore and me.

1. Why there will be a Backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement.
Plus a synopsis of the EU and UK positions on the matter.

(Thread 1/6) 2. What is already agreed (green), agreed in principle (yellow), and not agreed (white) in the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland in the draft EU Withdrawal Agreement.
ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
2/6

Interesting speech by @MichelBarnier in Hannover last night, with a large focus on #Brexit.
A few quick points that are worth noting with an eye to current 'impasse'.
europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
1/4 Even *with* the UK's current red lines, he expects a wide-ranging FTA that covers:
- Customs cooperation
- Voluntary regulatory cooperation to encourage *convergence*
- Open market for services
- Rules limiting technical barriers to trade
- Zero tariffs

2/4

What is most interesting about this piece by Dr Graham Gudgin on @BrexitCentral is how virtually identical it is to every other pro-Brexit piece on the Irish border.

Here's a brief thread noting some of these common features.

1/
brexitcentral.com/dublin-needs-t… The border as battleground:
"The Irish border thus remains the key battleground in the war of attrition that is the UK-EU Brexit talks."

This has the effect of asserting that if UK moves on red lines here it loses the Brexit war.

Thus raising the stakes & raising tensions.
2/

Over the course of this night, 20 years ago, the text to conclude the multi-party negotiations in N.Ireland was agreed.
It was issued with this Declaration of Support from the parties, fully endorsed by the British & Irish governments.
#ItIsAgreed
#GFA20
#BelfastAgreement
1/ "1. We, the participants in the multi-party negotiations, believe that the
agreement we have negotiated offers a truly historic opportunity for a new
beginning."

2/

A quick response to another of those jolly 'the Irish border Brexit problem is all just a plot to lever the UK into staying in the SM&CU' pieces. This one is from @DCBMEP
brexitcentral.com/practical-tech… Diminishing the problem by noting that Ireland is a small country is neither revelatory nor does it help build those close UK/IRL bonds.

& whether or not 'the Irish border equates in one whole year to less than three day’s flow on the M25 motorway' is entirely beside the point.

I think what the world needs right now is 4 slides putting the #Brexit border issue as simply as possible. So here goes... Here is a very simple outline of what border controls mean for different types of border with the EU, i.e. if in the EEA, if in a Customs Union, with a FTA, with nowt. The spectrum is vast. This is just the basics, with a focus on goods.

In case any one is open to a bit of level-headedness amid the storm [see what I did there?], here are a few measured observations on the IRL/NI protocol in the draft Withdrawal Agreement. 1/ The protocol relates to Scenario 3, i.e. what needs to occur ‘in the absence of agreed solutions’.
Any proposal for an 'agreed' solution will have to engage seriously with what the EU has interpreted here to be the bare essentials for meeting commitments of the Joint Report. 2/

Here's a hint at what a post-Brexit ‘hard border’ for the movement of goods looks like.
It’s a summary of what it means for the UK to become a 3rd country, the baseline from which a trade agreement is built...
#BrexitBorder

HT @robmurphybe @mauricecampbell
1/ Subject to any transitional arrangement in a Withdrawal Agreement, the following applies for the movement of goods between the EU27 (inc IRL) & the UK as a third country, as of 30 March 2019:

2/

Seeing as Legatum is in the news again today, perhaps it is timely to tweet a couple of thoughts after having seen two members of the Legatum Institute present on the topic of Brexit and the Irish border last week. 1/7

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by @NickCohen4 view original on Twitter

Their position hasn't changed one jot since the deeply flawed report was published last Sept (bit.ly/2BBV1MC). There seems no need to make any qualification to my analysis of that report
bit.ly/2FsAHjn @SluggerOToole
bit.ly/2EiZo2g @LSEEuroppblog 2/7

[THREAD] Great to see that Joint Agreement text! tinyurl.com/JointAgmt
On NI/IRL, here are some key points and a bit of tweet-tight analysis: (1/) The biggie, para 49: Primary aim = to uphold commitments (to support N/S coop, all-island economy & protection of GFA) as part of whole UK/EU r'ship.
Failing that, UK will propose ‘specific solutions’.
If those fail? UK to maintain’ full alignment’ w/ relevant SM & CU rules (2/

& I are presenting our Report on 'Brexit & the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement' to @EPInstitutional today. Find the report here: tinyurl.com/BrexitGFA
It's a long one, so here are a few key points... THREAD 1. The Agreement approaches the conflict as a border Anything Anything that changes the nature of that border & relationship between UK & Ireland poses a challenge for the Agreement.