Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them. 2/ ..as there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...

1/ a short thread on “my family are nice & voted Brexit”.

“.....Or what we remainers failed to understand by the Leave vote...” 2/ remainers talk about the racist or gammon leave voter. But a minority of voters are racist & while you do see angry middle aged men on @bbcquestiontime they’re a small subset.

So my leave voting family - they are nice - why did they vote brexit?

The answer may surprise you..

1/
Thread to explain why, strange as this sounds, (& many still don't get this!) - there are no hard Brexit MPs. Even Mogg & Johnson are kind of soft brexiters. Both wanted frictionless trade with EU & no real economic change.

So what happened? 2/
What Mogg, Johnson & rest wanted was a "soft Brexit on UK Terms". They were so sure this would happen that they barely considered what wld happen if there "hard Brexit talk" didn't result in a "soft Brexit on UK terms".

Thus the fight is not btwn hard & soft Brexit but btwn..

1. There seems to be a lot of talk (both from the right & left) that Italy should/must/will leave the Euro.

Here's a little thread explaining why in any sane world this wont happen. 2. When Italy joined Euro its Govt debt service costs dropped from 12% to 5% of GDP and inflation fell. This is massive

Unlikely as the fact may strike you Italy benefitted greatly from this.

So why is there a problem & why the talk of leaving the euro?

theguardian.com/business/2018/…

This *may* be of interest. My own personal German based Liam Fox anecdote.

Frankfurt based since 2001 I was invited to a (I’ll keep it unnamed) Anglo-German business meeting in 2017 in which Fox was the guest of honour.
The subject was „the post #brexit UK-German relationship“. 2/ ..should have been home ground for Fox. The majority of attendees were more FDP than CDU (FDP is nearest thing Ger has to a euro-critical low tax Tory party).

Its Frankfurt-all Germans speak English, they may not like #brexit but they distrust „Brussels“ & want a EU-UK deal..

1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago. 2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....

Thread:
1/
So I risk upsetting some fellow remainers here but I have to admit I have some sympathy for the “will of the people” argument.

Yes I get all the advisory referendum, #CambridgeAnalytica tainted, red bus of lies arguments - they’re correct but it’s simply not enough.. 2/

..but I think remainers dont get that theres enough people who don’t get these arguments to make simply cancelling or a referendum rerun even if technically possible, politically toxic.

It can happen but will lead to a serious crisis. Problem is #brexit will anyway lead to..

1/ Very small thread on why #Brexit is actualy leading to the end of the UK or atleast the UK of the post war period as we understand it & its much, much more than *just* Irish & the Scots. Its as much about the English and its polity...... 2/ Firstly tho Irish unification & Scottish independence - the 1st is likely to be accelerated once the inevitable demographic reality tips in (around 2030). Scottish Indy less predictable but in any case #Brexit vote confirmed a break - one that's even riven the Scottish Tories.

1/ Small thread on Fish - hot topic of the day & cause of so many angy replies on my Timeline.
The big question: How can it be that an industry that has less full time employees than a village - circa 8 500 people - be so controversial?
How can this be driving our #Brexit future? 2/ first some context - not only does fishing (traditionally understood) employ barely a village - but this is not new.

UKs fishermen great decline happened post WWII but pre EEC.

In economic terms fishing is barely 0.1% of UK GDP!
gov.uk/government/sta… chap 1, table 1.2

A v small thread on Italy & it’s likelihood of leaving the EU-a scenario that has excited a lot of UK chatter after yesterday election 1/ 2/ many people seem to be comparing Italy with UK as if Italy would or even could be the ‘next domino” to fall. But the two nations couldn’t be more different.

1/ Very small thread on why many people (including me) have been getting #Brexit wrong. We've been blinded by the theatre & complex issues of the "EU negotiations" - but in fact its much simpler than that....indeed..... 2/ #Brexit "EU negotiations" are not in any significant way actually taking place, & to the extent that that they are at a minor level even these are largely irrelevant. Once I grasped this everything else of the last 12 months made sense.....

As someone who used to work for FCO a thread on why ppl need to understand that Priti Patels "mistake" far far worse than Boris' "gaffe" /1 2/ Boris gaffe was stupid but affects just one family & hopefully won't have repercussions & can be remedied. (Why he is FM another matter)