Helene von Bismarck Profile picture
Sep 14, 2018 10 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
For those of you who do not speak German, a short thread about my piece on dangers of #NoDealBrexit in @TspCausa causa.tagesspiegel.de/politik/auf-de…
Theresa May has always said 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal', but there is a new quality to the No Deal-Talk since #Chequers
The claim that #NoDealBrexit would not be "the end of the word" is a wild understatement. As @anandMenon1 @jdportes and otheres have pointed out it would most likely not mean lots of mini-deals, no deal at all, at least in the short term
Economic and political consequences would be very severe. So, if #NoDealBrexit is harmful to all sides, is this talk about it just a case of posturing in a game of 'who will blink first'? Yes and No
At the moment, both EU27 and UKGov are unwilling to budge in two questions: @BorderIrish and #SingleMarket . Both sides think the other one is acting irrationally and irresponsibly in insisting on their respective red lines.
Even if EU27 and British Government overcome their differences, any kind of deal is at great risk of being rejected in Parliament. If it is, a crisis for the government is most likely, perhaps even new elections. All of this would take time.
Even if the British Government comes through after a rejection in Parliament, there would not be enough time to organize a #PeoplesVote before Art 50. expires on 29 March 2019. Consequence is NOT statues quo ante but #NoDealBrexit
Even if EU27 grants Art 50-extensions (many reasons why they would not), and #PeoplesVote is organized, there is absolutely no guarantee that result would be different from first referendum. In any case, societal/ party divisions about relationship with EU would persist.
Conclusion: there is no turning back the clock to spring 2016. EU must accept #Brexit (pains me to write this) and both sides need to make best of situation. Currently, we are walking a VERY FINE LINE at that.
#NoDealBrexit is in nobody's interest. Does not mean it cannot happen. Beware.

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