Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 13, 2018 11 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..

1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of £39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.

Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply won’t happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
4/ the resulting deal will please virtually no one. Leavers will detest it as much of UK economy will defacto follow EU regulatory regime, even staying in sone EU agencies. Remainers wil hate it as its clearly worse than what we have now as members.
5/ the EU deal as it will come to be known will go down in history as the 1st time in history a country negotiated significantly worse terms for itself...out of its own choice.

The UK economy will chug along, perhaps even avoiding recession as...
6/ UK economy will be OK as EU deal will limit some of the worst costs of leaving at expense of giving up its influence both inside & outside EU. The main cost of #brexit will be borne by the declining £ which will encourage tourists & foreign home buyers.....
7/ #brexit will lead to declining industry & supply chains but London will prosper. Tourists & foreign investors will enjoy the cheap £. This will further increase gap btwn South & rest UK.

The next 2 decades will be dominated by...
8/ next2 decades dominated by permanent negotiations with EU on absolutely everything as UK tries to simultaneously claw back influence & benefits of single mkt but from outside. This will create enough discontent to lead to antiEUism as a defining characteristic of UK politics..
9/ #Brexit will be seen to have delivered not an apocalypse, merely a weaker, poorer Britain. Nobody will be able to name any benefits in 5 years time merely extra costs. Ireland will reunify as soon as demographics completes its job. Scotland may leave UK for EU...
10/ but despite this UK won’t rejoin EU. Being outside EU will be seen as a unique almost badge of honour. Anti EUism wil dominate UK politics & much culture.

The relative poverty of many brits to N Europe will be blamed on the EU for a harsh deal & on May for agreeing to it.
11/ further than that - who knows?

May will Possibly one day be due a revisionist comeback. Seen as delivering the best of a bad job. A different fate awaits Farage.

#Brexit itself will pass into language as a dull, stupid thing of little worth & even less point.


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @nicktolhurst

Aug 21, 2018
1/ a short thread on “my family are nice & voted Brexit”.

“.....Or what we remainers failed to understand by the Leave vote...”
2/ remainers talk about the racist or gammon leave voter. But a minority of voters are racist & while you do see angry middle aged men on @bbcquestiontime they’re a small subset.

So my leave voting family - they are nice - why did they vote brexit?

The answer may surprise you..
3/ talking with family in depth on #brexit these last few weeks they didn’t mention any new law making powers, nor that much on the supposed £350m a week we’ll get back - they never thought they’d see much of it. Even immigration wasn’t really as important topic as some assume...
Read 7 tweets
Jul 28, 2018
Thread to explain why, strange as this sounds, (& many still don't get this!) - there are no hard Brexit MPs. Even Mogg & Johnson are kind of soft brexiters. Both wanted frictionless trade with EU & no real economic change.

So what happened?
What Mogg, Johnson & rest wanted was a "soft Brexit on UK Terms". They were so sure this would happen that they barely considered what wld happen if there "hard Brexit talk" didn't result in a "soft Brexit on UK terms".

Thus the fight is not btwn hard & soft Brexit but btwn..
3/ the fight now is btwn those that want to accept reality of situation: that the longed for soft Brexit occurs on EU terms not UKs - and those that are "winging it" for something they never actually wanted & do not yet understand but have talked themselves into...
Read 6 tweets
Jun 2, 2018
1. There seems to be a lot of talk (both from the right & left) that Italy should/must/will leave the Euro.

Here's a little thread explaining why in any sane world this wont happen.
2. When Italy joined Euro its Govt debt service costs dropped from 12% to 5% of GDP and inflation fell. This is massive

Unlikely as the fact may strike you Italy benefitted greatly from this.

So why is there a problem & why the talk of leaving the euro?…
3. Unfortunately like Greece, rather than using extra money liberatted from saving on debt service to slowly reduce its debts, Italy used this benefit to just borrow more cheaply.

This was relatively OK while world economy fine but when global crisis hit, Italy had no buffer.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 26, 2018
This *may* be of interest. My own personal German based Liam Fox anecdote.

Frankfurt based since 2001 I was invited to a (I’ll keep it unnamed) Anglo-German business meeting in 2017 in which Fox was the guest of honour.
The subject was „the post #brexit UK-German relationship“.
2/ ..should have been home ground for Fox. The majority of attendees were more FDP than CDU (FDP is nearest thing Ger has to a euro-critical low tax Tory party).

Its Frankfurt-all Germans speak English, they may not like #brexit but they distrust „Brussels“ & want a EU-UK deal..
3/ Fox starts well enough saying how theres no sense in building up barriers where none exists btwn UK & Germany & that once „emotion“ of #brexit gone things will be smooth. Ger biz crowd like this - against emotion & barriers in trade sounds good to them

Then it went strange...
Read 10 tweets
Apr 24, 2018
1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago.
2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....
3/ Basic #Brexit idea was to convince EU that with a bit of compromise & British payments UK cld leave single mkt but retain full access to it while it worked out its future. Indeed many sensible Leavers didnt want radical change overnight..however there was one small problem....
Read 16 tweets
Mar 31, 2018
So I risk upsetting some fellow remainers here but I have to admit I have some sympathy for the “will of the people” argument.

Yes I get all the advisory referendum, #CambridgeAnalytica tainted, red bus of lies arguments - they’re correct but it’s simply not enough..

..but I think remainers dont get that theres enough people who don’t get these arguments to make simply cancelling or a referendum rerun even if technically possible, politically toxic.

It can happen but will lead to a serious crisis. Problem is #brexit will anyway lead to..
#brexit will lead to a crisis anyway. Theres too many undeliverables from what was promised pre referendum. In a febrile nationalist environment idea tho that UK cld turn back to EU will be seen as equivalent to “siding with the enemy halfway through a war”.

It won’t happen.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!