Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Sep 12, 2018 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Ahead of our @UKandEU event on transition (with associated report) tomorrow, some thoughts on this neglected part of Brexit:

ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-t…

1/
In all the hubbub about the WA and the future relationship, it's easy to neglect the bit in-between

2/
Tomorrow's event aims to help rectify this, not least because it's got various problems that need to be discussed and debated

3/
I'd argue that the 'membership minus/Full Monty' (h/t @piris_jc) model provisionally accepted by the UK and EU in the WA is the least-worst option

4/
It means no double transition for the UK, a more comprehensive level of reliability for citizens and businesses, plus sets out a base from which to negotiate the future relationship

5/
However, it comes with challenges/problems too

6/
I've talked before about the extension problems here (blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2018/…) but as matters stand now, we might have an even-less manageable cliff-edge at end 2020 than we have in March 2019

7
But there are also issues around balancing transition with the parallel negotiations on the future relationship and on third-state agts (as @DavidHenigUK @hhesterm will discuss)

8/
Plus it doesn't even fully resolve the interim arrangements for Ireland/Northern Ireland (as @MaryCMurphy is going to explore tomorrow)

9/
Finally, there's a real Q of democracy here. How legitimate is it for UK to have all of membership, w/o voting or full representation rights?

That's only partly balanced by whether it's legitimate for non-EU member to have such rights, but not really

10/
Clearly, one could argue this away as a passing issue, but if extension does come back as a live issue (as I think it must), then it becomes ever more of a problem, for all involved

11/
Only legally-compliant way through this that I can see would be a WA with a post-dated withdrawal of UK from EU (at end 2020), so it remains a full member until then.

But looks almost impossible to consider in current political climate (and raises Qs of respecting #EUref)

12/
So, no real answers, but I think it's important to raise the Qs

More tomorrow on the #BrexitTransition hashtag

13/
(and yes, you'll probably have the opportunity to enjoy this masterpiece again)



/end

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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