Thread by @trad0r

Altcoin Marketcap vs $BTC:USD - their was an #ALTszn before $BTC capitulation in 2014. #btcusd

Altcoin Marketcap vs $BTC:Dominance -> Their is two main differences between 2014 and 2018:
#1 $BTC Dominance:
- never made a new high in dominance
- BTC gains from ALTs in it's big runs
- ALTs take from BTC after it tops
- BTC takes form ALTs after they top

#2 Margin Trading => the ability to short $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $EOS, $LTC
- margin platforms take volume from ALTs on Spot
- their was no other way to make money except for ALTs - now you can short.
- shorting creates more selling pressure + buying pressure at reversal points

NVT is super high and calls for a secondary bearmarket on $BTC as it did in 2014.
- will alts follow $BTC or act like they did in 2014?
- we didn't have a clear V shaped recovery on the Altcoin Marketcap like in 2014, yet.

ALT vs Total vs $BTC -> both ALTs and $BTC retraced to the 0.855 fib while Total held above 0.786 (except for one wick on the weekly which is smoothed out by the line chart). => ALTs held the Marketcap up while $BTC kept dumping.

IF history repeats itself here, best strategy would be to go long on ALTs now till mid to end of January -> take profits into $BTC which should be at its capitulation point by than -> wait for ALTs to bottom again and get prepared for the next Bullrun. (2020 $BTC halving)

I hope it's needless to say but I do it anyway:

past performance =! future performance

therefore it's better to go by a day by day basis. -> anything can happen at any time - be prepared for the best and the worst. good luck
#cryptocurrency #crypto #altcoins #bitcoin

$BTC and the whole #crypto Market is not that much comparable to 2014 in terms of development, adoption and the amount of ALTs. $BTC could have capitulated in February already + ETF gets approved and $BTC fomo destroys ALTs or a Black Swan Event takes the entire Market down.

$LTC vs $BTC vs $XRP vs Altcoin Marketcap.
this gives a complete different picture than looking just at the Cap. basically it looks like $XRP held it up while $LTC was correlated to $BTC and capitulated with it.

this invalidates my theory of a real mid bearmarket #ALTszn. The $XRP and $doge pump and their size make more sense now. Most ALTs will probably stay correlated with $BTC + random ALT pumps against the boredom.

I used these Coins based on a CMC Snapshot one day before the Altcoin Marketcap bottom. Most Alts capitulated later with $BTC and went way lower.