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Alex Krüger Profile picture
@krugermacro
Sep 20, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I am fascinated by the #cannabis industry. It offers massive growth potential and represents a standard against prehistoric regulations. However, prices of public companies make no sense. Latecomers will get butchered. Valuations are not justifiable.
Revenue numbers of these multi billion dollar cannabis companies make me think of the number of ethereum daily users.
I attempted to short $TLRY today. Close to the top, after $300. My first attempt to short cannabis. Trades would not go through due to unavailability of shares to borrow for short-selling. Tried various brokerage accounts and all. Price was at $170 a few minutes later.
Key aspects behind the Tilray/cannabis pump:

- news of permits and rumored partnerships.
- low float.
- IPO investors lockup period.
- few serious public companies to invest in.

That said the legalization in Canada of recreational marijuana is real.
Low float & the Infinite Squueze. $TLRY

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More from @krugermacro

Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
Lot's of talk about Tether & Bitfinex, some even mentioning "exit scam". Crypto pairs in Bitfinex are trading at 0.75%-1% premium over spot exchanges. However, same can be observed in Tether exchanges. e.g. prices in Binance same as in Bitfinex =>this is not a Bitfinex issue.
A couple of red flags aside, I don't think there is reason to be particularly concerned. Selling of Tether for other asset-backed stable coins is to be expected.
Now anyone operating in an exchange exposed to Tether or one that performs no KYC is always exposed to some sort of tail risk. Only way around that is moving to crypto-fiat regulated exchanges, which have higher operational costs (KYC is expensive) and charge higher trading fees.
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 3, 2018
#deletefacebook

forbes.com/sites/parmyols…
Narrative: "My top priority has always been our social mission of connecting people and bringing the world together" ~ Zuck.

Reality: "People ... I don't know why. They "trust me". Dumb fucks." ~ Zuck.

His top priority is using people to sell targeted ads. #deletefacebook
It all started with Facebook's Timeline, an intrusive interface designed to push ads. Other things followed: recording phone logs, hacks, 3rd party apps snooping, discriminating users, nudging for users to provide more and more and more information, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018
Brazil stocks +5% today in USD terms, strictly on political news. Chart locks great for longs. 1st round Presidential elections Oct/7. The two most voted candidates go onto a 2nd round on Oct/28.
Chart aside, what one trades is the elections: Bolsonaro (right-wing populist wildcard, similar to Trump, initially despised by markets, now seen positively as much better than the alternative) vs. Haddad (left-wing candidate, Lula's party). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian…
Two things behind today's rally.

- new info on the corruption scandal involving Haddad's party: voanews.com/amp/brazil-jud…?

- more importantly: Ibope polls showing a sharp improvement in Bolsonaro's odds.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
1/ Key factors for global markets

- Fed tightening: rising rates, balance sheet reduction, USD funding squeeze. Fed expects three more hikes in 2019.
- US economy overheating. Fiscal cuts in action, US profit margins at all time highs, unemployment at lowest level since 2000.
2/
- US treasury curve inverting, pointing towards incoming recession.
- Oil spiking in response to demand shocks and low spare capacity could lead to increased inflation and tightening.
- Ballooned public and corporate debt levels.
3/
- Trade wars: US tariffs would result in China's GDP dropping 75bps. Worldwide spillover effects.
- To compensate, China looking to reflate domestic economy via spending & monetary easing.
- EM at risk from Fed tightening and strong USD; are these already priced in?
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
Chart shares one of my signals which I call the Volume Thrust. It's a high volume/volatility breakouts signal. Can be applied to multiple time frames i.e. five minute charts or daily charts. Sharing it to illustrate price action concepts.
Understanding this is useful for investors as well who want to enter positions only with the trend. It's also helpful to any trader who is fearful of buying a top. Buying a top or selling a bottom sometimes represents good decision making.
First, when there is a high volume push in one direction, a trader generally wants to go in the direction of the push. Second, when push fails and price reverses in full beyond origin point, that's a trap, trader wants to reverse position (or at least exit prior position if any).
Read 11 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 27, 2018
This could happen to crypto exchanges offering trading of security tokens and security token derivatives. If $XRP were to be defined as a security it would jeopardize exchanges such as Bitmex. Binance is at risk regardless. Lots of security tokens there.
Sounds familiar?

(Source: sec.gov/news/press-rel…)
Just yesterday I was reading about how 1broker had started offering CFDs on cannabis stocks, offering traders to open an account with an email address, fund it with bitcoin, and hit it with 50x leverage.
Read 8 tweets

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