Thread by @tony_nog

1) Thread: "We knew what we were voting for" & #Brexit
This shouldn't really need saying but no, we didn't, we couldn't, because of the dishonest campaign ran by the Vote Leavers
History has been rewritten but the following are some edited highlights
#Lab18 #LabourConference2018

2) Firstly, what did Vote Leave promise?

Well Gove said there'd just be a few "Bumps in the Road" in a pre ref debate
strongerin.co.uk/bumps_in_the_r…

3) Leadsom stated that in her expert opinion as a former city worker that there'd be no impact on the British economy
buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/an…

4) Chris Grayling echoed the "they need us more than we need them" line along with other leading brexiters who talked obsessively about our huge trade deficit *(remember that? German car makers were going to force Merkel and EU into a deal) being our ace in the hole

5) Dan Hannan was actively campaigning for EFTA/EAA/"Norway" before the ref and then kept suggesting it afterwards as a "compromise".
The site has been taken down now but here is an image from the video where he defends the 4 freedoms

6) Even Farage was suggesting Norway as a way forward
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

7) But we knew what Vote Leave were offering. Unfortunately, they didn't seem to understand exactly what it meant

Here, David Davis, former EU minister and future Brexit secretary, suggested in June 2016 something *completely illegal* in the EU, bi-lateral trade deals

8) There's numerous quotes, TV clips etc of Vote Leave saying it would be easy, free, painless and lucrative to leave the EU. Nothing even approaching the current shambles was hinted at and all talk of our relatively weak hand was dismissed as "talking the country down"

9) at this point hard-line leavers will say "yes, but we ignored all that", "we knew there'd be pain", "what remainers don't get is that it's about more than economics"

It stretches belief that Leave voters ignored the false optimism of Vote Leave and voted for Leave anyway...

10) But more importantly, the idea that Leave Voters had a realistic view of the consequences of Brexit is just not borne out by the facts. Numerous polls indicated a very fragmented view of Brexit in Leave voters

11) This poll of 52K was taken by the telegraph just after the referendum
The leave vote is split into 3 incompatible sections.
just 21% wanted a hard Brexit (and what % knew what that really meant)
9% Norway
But the most interesting is the 18% who believed "we can have it all"

12) Consider that: 18% of the overall poll, so perhaps 40% of Leave voters if this (Telegraph readers) poll is representative believed just after the ref that we really could have everything we wanted

This seems bonkers now but a large number of Leave voters believed this then

13) but then why shouldn't 40% of Leave Voters believe we could have everything we wanted. We were told we held all the cards, had the upper hand, were the worlds 5th biggest economy and would land in the sunlit uplands

14) of course it's embarrassing now to admit you were fooled so its far easier to say "I always knew what Leave meant" but again, the figures just don't stack up.

This poll from about a year after the ref asked the public to rate their priorities on Brexit

15) Almost equal priority was given to ending Freedom of Movement, stopping budget payments and have full access to the Single Market.
The first 2 are incompatible with the 3rd yet large numbers of people thought we could have all 3 post brexit

16) We then come to immigration - and yes this was a priority for a lot of people. They rated it very highly and this has been used as an argument on all sides to end FoM. However, although people wanted to end FoM, they didn't want to personally pay for it

17) Control of Immigration was very popular amongst Leavers, however as soon as any personal cash impact comes into it, support fell off a cliff

We were told we could end FoM and still keep all the benefits of the Single Market, hence no impact - a lot of Leavers believed it

18) To sum up, many Leavers will say now they always knew Brexit meant economic pain. It's likely many of them believe it. But the figures and facts from the ref do not support this in any way.
We were promised all the benefits of the EU with none of the costs

19) the biggest material impact would be the "savings" of £350 M for the NHS
In/out of the SM? This wasn't the question because the answer was we'd get to choose the benefits of the SM that we wanted, but with no subs to pay & less foriners, And large numbers believed it

20) You could ask why they believed this impossible deal was possible but they did, because they were told by Vote Leave Leaders that it would happen. The EU would cave, and compromise, because of french cheese sales and German car makers

21) Unfortunately, it will be only human to move from "we hold all the cards" to "the EU are bullying us" completely bypassing the question "hang on, you swore to us Vote Leave that we held all the cards, this is *your* fault" because that means admitting you were fooled

22) But we should remember history properly.
Many Leave Voters believed Brexit would be free & fruitful
They believed this because fundamentally Vote Leave believed the EU was weak, and craven, and would cave to bullying from the UK (ironic really)

23) it's hard to admit you were fooled, but sufficient leavers must do, because they didn't vote for this, yet the #Brexit shambles is being executed in their name.

And honestly, it'll be a big weight off when you can look at Brexit and its shabby leaders in a proper light
end/

Ps) if you want a refresher here's some blogs from the distant shores of 2016

musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/06/01/the…

musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2017/08/17/the…

Finally, my personal theory-Vote Leave were actually aiming for Norway model (or to lose) but actually overshot by overplaying immigration
musealoudblog.wordpress.com/2016/08/23/han…