tony nog Profile picture
Sep 23, 2018 26 tweets 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1) Thread: "We knew what we were voting for" & #Brexit
This shouldn't really need saying but no, we didn't, we couldn't, because of the dishonest campaign ran by the Vote Leavers
History has been rewritten but the following are some edited highlights
#Lab18 #LabourConference2018
2) Firstly, what did Vote Leave promise?

Well Gove said there'd just be a few "Bumps in the Road" in a pre ref debate…
3) Leadsom stated that in her expert opinion as a former city worker that there'd be no impact on the British economy…
4) Chris Grayling echoed the "they need us more than we need them" line along with other leading brexiters who talked obsessively about our huge trade deficit *(remember that? German car makers were going to force Merkel and EU into a deal) being our ace in the hole
5) Dan Hannan was actively campaigning for EFTA/EAA/"Norway" before the ref and then kept suggesting it afterwards as a "compromise".
The site has been taken down now but here is an image from the video where he defends the 4 freedoms
6) Even Farage was suggesting Norway as a way forward…
7) But we knew what Vote Leave were offering. Unfortunately, they didn't seem to understand exactly what it meant

Here, David Davis, former EU minister and future Brexit secretary, suggested in June 2016 something *completely illegal* in the EU, bi-lateral trade deals
8) There's numerous quotes, TV clips etc of Vote Leave saying it would be easy, free, painless and lucrative to leave the EU. Nothing even approaching the current shambles was hinted at and all talk of our relatively weak hand was dismissed as "talking the country down"
9) at this point hard-line leavers will say "yes, but we ignored all that", "we knew there'd be pain", "what remainers don't get is that it's about more than economics"

It stretches belief that Leave voters ignored the false optimism of Vote Leave and voted for Leave anyway...
10) But more importantly, the idea that Leave Voters had a realistic view of the consequences of Brexit is just not borne out by the facts. Numerous polls indicated a very fragmented view of Brexit in Leave voters
11) This poll of 52K was taken by the telegraph just after the referendum
The leave vote is split into 3 incompatible sections.
just 21% wanted a hard Brexit (and what % knew what that really meant)
9% Norway
But the most interesting is the 18% who believed "we can have it all"
12) Consider that: 18% of the overall poll, so perhaps 40% of Leave voters if this (Telegraph readers) poll is representative believed just after the ref that we really could have everything we wanted

This seems bonkers now but a large number of Leave voters believed this then
13) but then why shouldn't 40% of Leave Voters believe we could have everything we wanted. We were told we held all the cards, had the upper hand, were the worlds 5th biggest economy and would land in the sunlit uplands
14) of course it's embarrassing now to admit you were fooled so its far easier to say "I always knew what Leave meant" but again, the figures just don't stack up.

This poll from about a year after the ref asked the public to rate their priorities on Brexit
15) Almost equal priority was given to ending Freedom of Movement, stopping budget payments and have full access to the Single Market.
The first 2 are incompatible with the 3rd yet large numbers of people thought we could have all 3 post brexit
16) We then come to immigration - and yes this was a priority for a lot of people. They rated it very highly and this has been used as an argument on all sides to end FoM. However, although people wanted to end FoM, they didn't want to personally pay for it
17) Control of Immigration was very popular amongst Leavers, however as soon as any personal cash impact comes into it, support fell off a cliff

We were told we could end FoM and still keep all the benefits of the Single Market, hence no impact - a lot of Leavers believed it
18) To sum up, many Leavers will say now they always knew Brexit meant economic pain. It's likely many of them believe it. But the figures and facts from the ref do not support this in any way.
We were promised all the benefits of the EU with none of the costs
19) the biggest material impact would be the "savings" of £350 M for the NHS
In/out of the SM? This wasn't the question because the answer was we'd get to choose the benefits of the SM that we wanted, but with no subs to pay & less foriners, And large numbers believed it
20) You could ask why they believed this impossible deal was possible but they did, because they were told by Vote Leave Leaders that it would happen. The EU would cave, and compromise, because of french cheese sales and German car makers
21) Unfortunately, it will be only human to move from "we hold all the cards" to "the EU are bullying us" completely bypassing the question "hang on, you swore to us Vote Leave that we held all the cards, this is *your* fault" because that means admitting you were fooled
22) But we should remember history properly.
Many Leave Voters believed Brexit would be free & fruitful
They believed this because fundamentally Vote Leave believed the EU was weak, and craven, and would cave to bullying from the UK (ironic really)
23) it's hard to admit you were fooled, but sufficient leavers must do, because they didn't vote for this, yet the #Brexit shambles is being executed in their name.

And honestly, it'll be a big weight off when you can look at Brexit and its shabby leaders in a proper light
Ps) if you want a refresher here's some blogs from the distant shores of 2016…
Finally, my personal theory-Vote Leave were actually aiming for Norway model (or to lose) but actually overshot by overplaying immigration…

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More from @tony_nog

Oct 7, 2018
1) It's still Hard #Brexit - thread
Couple of things to point out as we head to "Canada ++++"

A) it suits the EU as a fallback but
B) as far as the UK is concerned, its still damaging, draining, hardest of hard Brexits & nothing to be celebrated
Here's what we've forgotten
2) firstly, yes the EU27 would prefer we remain & if not they'd prefer a close arrangement - but at this point they'd settle for the island of Ireland being protected & an orderly exit

They're not going to save us from ourselves

They can minimise the damage of UK leaving SM
3) so let's not kid ourselves that the EU27 will make sure we get a good deal or one that has minimal damage to the UK, they will look after each other, they have to.

All the ++ means is cooperation in certain areas, not untold riches or a "special deal"
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1) Thread - Labour, dodgy right Brexit activities & missed opportunities
Today I was a bystander in a discussion between @OwenJones84 & @JolyonMaugham around tweeting on Vote Leave's illegal spending, which I think is part of a bigger missed opportunity on #Brexit for Labour
2) Lets just be honest - the Tory party & #Brexit has always been dodgy. Charlatans who misled people given high government office and all that. But the last few months have had some significant revelations of dubious practices, only one of which was Vote Leave illegal spending
3) I wont't even get a complete list here but some highlights are:
- Cambridge Analytica "harvested accounts" scandal
- Links with AIQ & the Trump campaigns
- Vote Leave overspending
- Lack of clarity on Leave.EU funding
Read 15 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1) Some excellent ideas being developed here by @RichardElwes and @sjwrenlewis

Will just add a few thoughts on the #Brexit trap for either party

There are no good #Brexits economically but neither are there politically, for either party
@RichardElwes @sjwrenlewis 2) (sorry, 2 "either"s there....)
As with Richard, this is not about my beliefs but public perception
Soft Brexit = Betrayal/Vassal state portrayal from Leavers, instant political cost

Hard Brexit = economic cost, which obviously leads to political cost in short order
@RichardElwes @sjwrenlewis 3) the public are fickle, and even if for example lucrative Free Trade Deals were out there the leaver vote is as likely to be more protectionist in nature.
Many leavers may see Free trade as "everyone else buying our stuff, with no downside on our industry in return"
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
1) Corbyn, control & democracy
The attempt to crush the #PeoplesVote initiative from Corbyn's team should ring alarm bells for anyone who values democracy
& transparency, inside Labour or outside. He is and will always be an authoritarian

2) you can argue back and forth on whether a #PeoplesVote is strategically good, bad or horrendous for Labour, or that Corbyn's offer to work with the Tories on #Brexit is "political theatre". The fact is the new Labour position is the exact opposite of what the members wanted
3) the reality is, 150 local parties submitted motions and the overwhelming majority supported a people's vote with an option to remain.

That has somehow completely transformed into a Labour offer to compromise the 6 tests for a Tory led Brexit
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
1) Was determined to back off Labour & Corbyn this week & support them going forward on #Brexit

But now this, following Corbyn's speech.

Corbyn's team want Brexit. They don't want to listen to the members on a #PeoplesVote & now it's been raised, they are switching position
2) let's just look at the chronology
I) Starmer (but no one else in Leadership) talks occasionally over last 2 years about "exact same benefits" 6 tests
ii) privately, @BarryGardiner describes them as nonsense
@BarryGardiner 3) iii) in run up to conference, probably because they know there is a huge influx of CLP motions asking for an early vote, Corbyn & others start talking about the 6 tests really for the first time.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 26, 2018
1) Great article on why #Brexit is insoluble
We can rail about respecting the vote, the EU being stubborn,May being incompetent etc all day long. The fact is it cannot be negotiated successfully, and anyone who believes otherwise is mistaken
2) reasons are very simple, and always have been. The deal that was promised & any feasible deal are so far apart as to be unrecognisable

Either Brexit will be so painful that it will destroy the party who implements or so meaningless that it would be embarrassing to implement
3) half the country do not want Brexit, the other half (apart from the hardcore) voted for the pain free, cake & eat it easy brexit that was promised.

There is *no* feasible Brexit that would gain a majority in the UK & non possible within the EU & UKs red lines
Read 4 tweets

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