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David Henig Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Sep 24, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Ok, there are so many questionable / incorrect assertions in this IEA report it is hard to keep track. I'm going to summarise it as "more wishful thinking" for the time being iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Well this is embarrassing. The IEA report calls for food standards to be lowered to join TPP and have a US trade deal. Liam Fox last week said this wouldn't happen...
Oh and another one, the report specifically proposes reducing the advantages given to developing countries, by reducing tariffs to zero for all countries (I'll do a detailed thread later, these are headlines)
Looks like proposing financial services deregulation, which I'm sure will go down well with others (but reliant on FS gurus like @csgmoore to fill in the details here)
This is incredibly naive or duplicitous "US firms have not complained about the NHS" (p93).
If you want to show that you're an expert on a country's trade policy it would be helpful to be able to spell the name of one of the main exports correctly (this mistake is repeated, not a typo)
Anyway the hashtag is #PlanAPlus - I'd hate to have seen Plan A before the plus was added

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
Oct 9, 2018
Thanks for directing my attention to a story I had otherwise missed. Now rather than issue meaningless rebuttals that are damaging trust can I suggest actual engagement in the topic of food standards in post-Brexit trade agreements...
Usefully Liam Fox and DIT could start by finally accepting that trade agreements can affect food standards. It is almost unbelievable that the statement below - 100% factually incorrect - still appears on the website promoting consultation on CPTPP
Then we could usefully have a discussion about what food regulations we want to see in trade agreements - where we may discover we think EU regulations are in cases protectionist. But we can't have this discussion if we pretend this isn't covered in trade agreements.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
Oct 8, 2018
We need to talk about US trade policy and the impact on the UK, now we have a much clearer sense of where they're going in the next few years. Let's start with this FT story about a clause in the new NAFTA - ft.com/content/95e80a… 1/
Quite a lot of hardline Brexit supporters have suggested that the US will place fewer conditions on a trade deal than the EU do as members, or indeed in a future agreement. This is possible, but it doesn't mean unconditional 2/
The use of trade agreements as a political tool is not new in the US (or in other major powers like the EU). Food standards one of a number of long-time issues between the two - see 50 pages in this report on EU barriers ustr.gov/sites/default/… 3/
Read 11 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
Oct 8, 2018
Another Brexit story in the news this morning concerns the Japanese PM Abe welcoming UK intention to join TPP. Here's what I wrote last month on TPP - it involves signing up to someone else's rules to show UK good intent... prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
TPP rules would mean we finally settle the chlorinated chicken argument in favour of the US, and the NHS has to be open to challenge on the setting of drug prices, but the UK would show a greater respect for the global economic rules than certain others...
On TPP another factor is that the EU already has deals with most of the countries which the UK hopes to replicate. So it really is mostly about the UK's place in the world and some big policy questions - the economic gain isn't likely to be huge
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
Oct 6, 2018
Might be worth retweeting this once a week.

The rest is noise as they say.
More dull but essential stuff - a UK EU future relationship deal could be expected to take 5-10 years from start of talks to implementation. If this included tech solutions to Irish border they would probably take a further few years to implement.
During the period of negotiations the UK will have to decide policy on pretty much all EU regulations - are we following or diverging? Including food standards. No deal without a decision. And our starting point is irrelevant.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
Oct 5, 2018
So this week's Brexit Probability Tracker illustrates the potential ambiguity of complex international agreements. If we end up with an agreement for a transitional Customs Union with an intended FTA end state how do you classify that?
Basically the probability of a long term transition / Customs Union mash-up is rising - to near 50%. If that fails we turn either towards no-deal options on one side, or discussions of referendum or EEA on the other.
The trend is actually relatively stable - some options rise and fall a little as they receive more scrutiny, but some kind of blind Brexit has always been favourite, which is a factor of the negotiating sequence as much as anything
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
So, if the UK signs up to a Customs Union with the EU likely to last quite a few years, plus various regulatory alignment, does that make the Department of International Trade redundant? No, because there's a lot more to trade policy than tariffs - thread 1/
Obvious first point - services. Not covered in a customs union, a UK strength, and was going to be an area of focus in trade deals. But trade deals aren't great on services, and the trade off with reducing agriculture tariffs always looked problematic 2/
We should be able to sign services agreements - or push the Trade in Services Agreement at the WTO. Government have suggested we could include visas / migration in trade agreements, so we have something to offer 3/
Read 15 tweets

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