Thanks for directing my attention to a story I had otherwise missed. Now rather than issue meaningless rebuttals that are damaging trust can I suggest actual engagement in the topic of food standards in post-Brexit trade agreements...

https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1049636308740698112

Usefully Liam Fox and DIT could start by finally accepting that trade agreements can affect food standards. It is almost unbelievable that the statement below - 100% factually incorrect - still appears on the website promoting consultation on CPTPP

We need to talk about US trade policy and the impact on the UK, now we have a much clearer sense of where they're going in the next few years. Let's start with this FT story about a clause in the new NAFTA - ft.com/content/95e80a… 1/ Quite a lot of hardline Brexit supporters have suggested that the US will place fewer conditions on a trade deal than the EU do as members, or indeed in a future agreement. This is possible, but it doesn't mean unconditional 2/

Another Brexit story in the news this morning concerns the Japanese PM Abe welcoming UK intention to join TPP. Here's what I wrote last month on TPP - it involves signing up to someone else's rules to show UK good intent... prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-… TPP rules would mean we finally settle the chlorinated chicken argument in favour of the US, and the NHS has to be open to challenge on the setting of drug prices, but the UK would show a greater respect for the global economic rules than certain others...

Might be worth retweeting this once a week.

The rest is noise as they say.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1011859352477724673

More dull but essential stuff - a UK EU future relationship deal could be expected to take 5-10 years from start of talks to implementation. If this included tech solutions to Irish border they would probably take a further few years to implement.

So this week's Brexit Probability Tracker illustrates the potential ambiguity of complex international agreements. If we end up with an agreement for a transitional Customs Union with an intended FTA end state how do you classify that? Basically the probability of a long term transition / Customs Union mash-up is rising - to near 50%. If that fails we turn either towards no-deal options on one side, or discussions of referendum or EEA on the other.

So, if the UK signs up to a Customs Union with the EU likely to last quite a few years, plus various regulatory alignment, does that make the Department of International Trade redundant? No, because there's a lot more to trade policy than tariffs - thread 1/ Obvious first point - services. Not covered in a customs union, a UK strength, and was going to be an area of focus in trade deals. But trade deals aren't great on services, and the trade off with reducing agriculture tariffs always looked problematic 2/

This Guardian Brexit timetable story does little to encourage the idea that a Brexit deal is possible in the next few weeks - at least based on whoever they have been talking with in UK and EU theguardian.com/politics/2018/… On the EU's Northern Ireland proposal, an interesting change of language from 'de-dramatisation' to 'substantially different' - but still sounds like, as well put yesterday, a technical solution to a political problem

This has been the Brexit plan of a number of influential officials for a number of months. Is it deliverable? Well it stands more chance than any other proposal. from theguardian.com/commentisfree/… There's a (big) risk that a Brexit transition will be seen as officials taking over policy making. It isn't. They were given contradictory policy instructions (no SM, CU, or Ireland border) and are doing their best to deliver them.

This is the best explanation of "Super-Canada" to date - as it should be, given both were written by @DCBMEP - but there are a few issues to be aware of on top of the oft-discussed Ireland border issue 1/ brexitcentral.com/super-supercan… Firstly, with regret, no chance it could be negotiated in 18 months, when CETA itself took 8 years from launch to implementation. We'd need a longer transition period 2/

It looks like the Birmingham bar talk is of the UK 'temporarily' (for a long time) remaining in a Customs Union with the EU to solve the Northern Ireland border question - a compromise that has always seemed likely thetimes.co.uk/article/319f57… Of course it is just that at this stage, talk, and we have to see what kind of agreement is actually possible with the EU. One must also continually wonder why this kind of lengthy transition period will be preferable to say EEA membership - where the UK would have more of a say

A former President of Latvia writes.

Worth reading the thread. And then don't - ever - compare the EU to the USSR if you want to win friends among those who regard themselves as having been occupied by the latter

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1046454249339514880

Next time must pay more attention - Toomas Hendrik Ilves is of course the former President of Estonia. The thread by Jeremy Cliffe was from Latvia. Both wonderful places...

I can imagine a lot of mainstream conservatives being utterly appalled by this article, and rightly so. "This grave threat facing our country is the triumph of the CBI" is as extreme an anything said by Jeremy Corbyn last week

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1046320600308961280

"The idea of free trade through legal and therefore political harmonisation has run into democracy" is essentially an attack on any modern Free Trade Agreement as well as the WTO and the EU (the latter is obviously the target)

The major Brexit problem faced by the Conservatives as they gather for conference is they have nothing to show for 2 years of Brexit negotiations - certainly nothing like was promised during the referendum - and are running out of road 1/ The PM is still frantically trying to hang on to the Chequers Plan for the future economic relationship, even though it is quite clear that without amendment in ways that would breach her own red lines it will not be acceptable to the EU 2/

Boris-world is rather like a child's imaginary world where you can just ignore inconvenient facts and make anything happen just by saying it will happen telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/… A good example, yes you can have some mutual recognition of conformity assessment in an FTA with the EU - but it won't be comprehensive or build without a considerable amount of trust building on both sides

Right then, with the warning that this is going to be a long thread, I'm going to try to distill the key points from the IEA #PlanAPlus report - which is typical of their work - lots of trade terms used questionably 1/ iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl… So this is upfront, in the Executive Summary. Zero tariffs on agriculture we do not produce. It is unlikely to make a huge difference to prices, but could make a big difference to developing countries who currently have zero tariffs 2/

Ok, there are so many questionable / incorrect assertions in this IEA report it is hard to keep track. I'm going to summarise it as "more wishful thinking" for the time being iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl… Well this is embarrassing. The IEA report calls for food standards to be lowered to join TPP and have a US trade deal. Liam Fox last week said this wouldn't happen...

Ahead of the release of the latest IEA offering on trade and Brexit let's briefly talk economic studies, and why any reputable economic model will find trade deals doesn't replace a loss of trade with the EU - 1/ Economic models equate barriers with growth in trade - the fewer the barriers - whether tariffs, regulations, services access - the more trade grows. Which seems obvious. Distance is also a factor - the gravity effect - more trade with closer countries 2/

To be fair some improvement in Sunday paper coverage of Salzburg and aftermath - particularly and surprisingly the 'Suez for slow learners' editorial in the Sunday Times A big week ahead then for Brexit. If tomorrow's IEA report on the Ireland border follows form it will damage the cause it attempts to progress through basic errors (we already hear suggestions of UK-Ireland goods deal that can't happen)

Your usual Saturday morning Brexit insight from @tconnellyRTE. Nuanced, considered, talking to sources on both sides, and then analysing what they are saying and whether it is right.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1043387852560711680

We really need to talk about the UK media. Because we are not getting this level of analysis - even today. It's still the PM v the conservative party. Not the fact that this country faces huge choices in the next few weeks with huge implications for people and businesses

On detailed examination the PM's speech was far worse than it sounded at the time, and it sounded bad. Inaccuracies and dubious interpretations abound. First - on what the EU is offering - it is due to her red lines not the EU 1/ On the EEA, you don't follow all EU rules, there are possibilities to control migration (though this remains a potential problem), and you can do trade deals. So that's virtually completely inaccurate 2/

Here we go then, the most eagerly awaited update of the Brexit Probability Tracker yet, and given the day we're having, the first time this thoroughly unscientific approach may be out of date within minutes. And... No deal is clearly increased in probability, the PM having said talks are at an impasse, and no deal is not the worst deal. Down slightly are the FTA option (not on offer without a Northern Ireland backstop) or the perma-transition (needs any deal)