Tim Durrant Profile picture
Sep 24, 2018 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A few thoughts on today's #nodeal notices - as others have said, these are some of the really juicy ones...


This is the first time, AFAIK, that the Government has accepted in such stark terms that no deal will mean:

- disruption to supply chains
- potential for no flights or bus services between UK and EU, and between UK and other countries (including flights to US)

- extra red tape, as businesses have to re-register their products/services in an EU country
- real problems at the border, particularly around Dover/Calais
- hassle for individuals (pet passports, motor insurance)

It's also an admission that:

- business uncertainty will continue - no deal still might or might not happen, we won't know for months
- the Govt cannot manage no deal on its own - it *needs* agreements with the EU, or individual EU members, to mitigate the worst effects

- there is a fundamental imbalance between how the UK and EU are approaching this: the UK is going to accept EU goods and services based on current standards, but can't compel the EU to do the same

And this is all without some of the biggest notices:

- as ever, how will the Irish border be managed?
- citizens' rights - how will the Govt implement the guarantee the PM made last week on EU citizens here? And what about the >1m Brits living in the rest of the EU?!

- free movement - reports over the weekend suggested the UK will have to let it continue for nearly three more years...
- EU trade deals - DIT say that process is going swimmingly, but we're yet to see any proof/contingency for if the EU doesn't help us...

So big questions still unanswered. But surely, this puts paid to the mantra that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?!

The Govt is prepared to strike a bad deal to avoid no deal, because there is no way whatsoever that the UK will be ready for it



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More from @timd_IFG

Sep 12, 2018
Few thoughts on the #ERG proposals for the Irish border, an issue @awstojanovic and I wrote about back in June: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/i…

The paper stresses that the ERG support the principle of no hard border, which will be welcome to all sides

Also says that customs checks won't be a problem - which is true if the Govt can swing the Facilitated Customs Arrangement, which both the EU and the ERG have problems with...

The paper points to an EU report, Smart Borders 2.0, as providing solutions to the customs questions. However, that report a) doesn't solve the problem and b) isn't an EU report (it was commissioned by the Parliament, it doesn't represent an EU proposal)

Read 7 tweets
Sep 10, 2018
Interesting story in the Mail last week which didn't get much pick up - few thoughts below...

1. This says that the UK will negotiate bilateral deals with every EU country to ensure flights can continue if we leave without a deal. So, as @jl_owen says, no deal actually means 27 deals (plus all the ones we need with other countries that are currently negotiated by the EU)
2. But there's no clarity on when/whether these deals will be ready - on EU trade deals, DIT hasn't confirmed the rollover of any yet, and I think the same is true of other departments dealing with deals in their policy areas
Read 4 tweets

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