tony nog Profile picture
Sep 25, 2018 11 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1) Thread - Leavers "bored with the details" on #Brexit
Fascinating poll which reveals 66% of Leave Voters are uninterested in exactly how we leave the EU, they just want to leave. This brings into question - exactly *what* are we achieving pushing for Brexit?
2) the main point here is that only 1/6 of the country, at most, actually care whether we leave on WTO terms or Norway+Single Market or anything in between. The rest either want to Remain or are uninterested in the details of leaving. This leads to several conclusions
3) Firstly, no-one, least of all Rees-Mogg & the ERG, speaks for everyone or even a majority of Leavers.

When various right wing commentators say "give us the #Brexit we voted for" or push for no deal, they speak for almost no-one but themselves

No deal has very little support
4) furthermore, we can probably assume that at least some supporters of no deal don't necessarily appreciate the full effects - new details are emerging every day. We can also probably reword that into "no deal OR any deal that has significant economic impact" has little support
5) the economic impact of No Deal would be bad, but a minimal "Canada" Free Trade deal would also be bad, just less so, and so any party delivering it would be doing so for a small minority, and the majority would abandon them for a generation in response to the effects
6) if 2/3rds of Leavers are not bothered about the details of Leaving, then any political party should, as a minimum, find the least painful way to leave (SM+CU if possible) as this makes the problem go away for most leavers whilst minimising the backlash from the after effects
7) in terms of electability politically it makes no sense to leave the SM+CU. Most leavers it seems won't be bothered that much either way but a large majority would be very angry at the economic impacts (Remainers because of "I told you so & Leavers who didn't expect it)
8) ending FoM to "respect the result" is a political dead end,few will actually thank any party which implements because, as we know, it means no SM with all the impacts on jobs and the economy
Implementing the 3 month FoM right to stay rules will probably be almost as acceptable
9) but the ultimate question really is - why are we really driving through #Brexit for people who mostly are so disengaged they no longer care how it happens?
Brexit is a fundamental shift, with long term consequences, and short to mid term damage whichever form it takes
10) yes, ok, we need to "respect the result". But if we are all brexiting for the 52% shouldn't we at least expect them to be interested in it?

Why are we really leaving if those who voted for it don't really care enough to be engaged at all?
11) Link to findings - sorry, it's the Sun...…

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More from @tony_nog

Oct 7, 2018
1) It's still Hard #Brexit - thread
Couple of things to point out as we head to "Canada ++++"

A) it suits the EU as a fallback but
B) as far as the UK is concerned, its still damaging, draining, hardest of hard Brexits & nothing to be celebrated
Here's what we've forgotten
2) firstly, yes the EU27 would prefer we remain & if not they'd prefer a close arrangement - but at this point they'd settle for the island of Ireland being protected & an orderly exit

They're not going to save us from ourselves

They can minimise the damage of UK leaving SM
3) so let's not kid ourselves that the EU27 will make sure we get a good deal or one that has minimal damage to the UK, they will look after each other, they have to.

All the ++ means is cooperation in certain areas, not untold riches or a "special deal"
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1) Thread - Labour, dodgy right Brexit activities & missed opportunities
Today I was a bystander in a discussion between @OwenJones84 & @JolyonMaugham around tweeting on Vote Leave's illegal spending, which I think is part of a bigger missed opportunity on #Brexit for Labour
2) Lets just be honest - the Tory party & #Brexit has always been dodgy. Charlatans who misled people given high government office and all that. But the last few months have had some significant revelations of dubious practices, only one of which was Vote Leave illegal spending
3) I wont't even get a complete list here but some highlights are:
- Cambridge Analytica "harvested accounts" scandal
- Links with AIQ & the Trump campaigns
- Vote Leave overspending
- Lack of clarity on Leave.EU funding
Read 15 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1) Some excellent ideas being developed here by @RichardElwes and @sjwrenlewis

Will just add a few thoughts on the #Brexit trap for either party

There are no good #Brexits economically but neither are there politically, for either party
@RichardElwes @sjwrenlewis 2) (sorry, 2 "either"s there....)
As with Richard, this is not about my beliefs but public perception
Soft Brexit = Betrayal/Vassal state portrayal from Leavers, instant political cost

Hard Brexit = economic cost, which obviously leads to political cost in short order
@RichardElwes @sjwrenlewis 3) the public are fickle, and even if for example lucrative Free Trade Deals were out there the leaver vote is as likely to be more protectionist in nature.
Many leavers may see Free trade as "everyone else buying our stuff, with no downside on our industry in return"
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
1) Corbyn, control & democracy
The attempt to crush the #PeoplesVote initiative from Corbyn's team should ring alarm bells for anyone who values democracy
& transparency, inside Labour or outside. He is and will always be an authoritarian

2) you can argue back and forth on whether a #PeoplesVote is strategically good, bad or horrendous for Labour, or that Corbyn's offer to work with the Tories on #Brexit is "political theatre". The fact is the new Labour position is the exact opposite of what the members wanted
3) the reality is, 150 local parties submitted motions and the overwhelming majority supported a people's vote with an option to remain.

That has somehow completely transformed into a Labour offer to compromise the 6 tests for a Tory led Brexit
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
1) Was determined to back off Labour & Corbyn this week & support them going forward on #Brexit

But now this, following Corbyn's speech.

Corbyn's team want Brexit. They don't want to listen to the members on a #PeoplesVote & now it's been raised, they are switching position
2) let's just look at the chronology
I) Starmer (but no one else in Leadership) talks occasionally over last 2 years about "exact same benefits" 6 tests
ii) privately, @BarryGardiner describes them as nonsense
@BarryGardiner 3) iii) in run up to conference, probably because they know there is a huge influx of CLP motions asking for an early vote, Corbyn & others start talking about the 6 tests really for the first time.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 26, 2018
1) Great article on why #Brexit is insoluble
We can rail about respecting the vote, the EU being stubborn,May being incompetent etc all day long. The fact is it cannot be negotiated successfully, and anyone who believes otherwise is mistaken
2) reasons are very simple, and always have been. The deal that was promised & any feasible deal are so far apart as to be unrecognisable

Either Brexit will be so painful that it will destroy the party who implements or so meaningless that it would be embarrassing to implement
3) half the country do not want Brexit, the other half (apart from the hardcore) voted for the pain free, cake & eat it easy brexit that was promised.

There is *no* feasible Brexit that would gain a majority in the UK & non possible within the EU & UKs red lines
Read 4 tweets

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