Thread by @edwinhayward

Here's the truth about Brexit, the supposed "punishment" that some people claim the EU is trying to inflict on the UK, and the real consequences of no deal. Buckle in, it's quite long. Better to be thorough than to leave stuff out! 1/15
#bbcnewsnight #skynews #c4news #itvnews

The EU isn't punishing the UK for Brexit. They're merely following the rules of the EU club. Losing the benefits of EU club membership IS the punishment. In the same way as no longer being able to use the weights or fitness equipment is punishment for quitting the local gym. 2/15

You might well put on weight because your gym membership lapsed. But you wouldn't turn around and say "Hey, the gym's punishing me for giving up my membership by making me fat!" That's the consequence of losing your gym membership, but it's not the fault of the gym. 3/15

Identical logic applies to the EU. The EU is not trying to be vindictive, it is merely applying the Article 50 rules. Article 50 is a simple set of rules, 5 bullet points, which explain exactly what must happen if any country decides to leave the EU. 4/15
lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon…

Note that the UK was fully involved in agreeing Article 50, and a Brit (Lord Kerr) was the one who actually drafted it! Article 50 was written in 2009, 7 years *before* we had the referendum. So successive governments have known exactly what leaving under Article 50 entails. 5/15

At the moment, we enjoy the benefits of over 750 treaties as EU members. Many of them cover free trade with the EU and 40+ non-EU countries. But they also address a huge range of other issues, from air worthiness to drivers licenses, UK & EU citizen rights, food safety, etc. 6/15

Now, the third rule of Article 50 states that all EU treaties will *automatically* no longer apply to any country that invokes Article 50, exactly 2 years later. In the UK's case, that's March 29, 2019 (at 11pm). This will happen by default, unless a deal is in place. 7/15

Without a deal, all those treaties will end, poof, just like that. In the blink of an eye, we will go from 750+ treaties to none. Of course, that means we will no longer be able to enjoy any of the benefits those treaties used to give us. Life will change instantly. 8/15

We will no longer be able to trade freely and without tariffs with ANY country. Planes may not be allowed to fly. You may need an international driver's license to drive on the Continent, and a visa too. Hundreds of other aspects of day-to-day life will be impacted. 9/15

Again, none of this is "punishment", it's just how Article 50 works. Remember, Theresa May knew this before she invoked Article 50 to begin the process of separating the UK from the EU. Remember too that we chose to leave, it's not the EU sending us away. 10/15

Now, each of those 750+ treaties can of course be replaced by a new agreement. But without an overall deal, every single one of them will have to be negotiated, one-by-one, with every other EU country. That's a staggering amount of work! 11/15
ft.com/content/f1435a…

So when you hear somebody saying "We'll be fine with no deal" they're really saying "don't worry, we'll manage to sort out side arrangements for over 750 treaties with each of 27 EU countries, and dozens more countries around the world, all before 11pm on 29 March 2019." 12/15

How believable does that sound? How likely is it that a Government that can't agree on one Brexit strategy can somehow manage to conduct thousands of *successful* side-negotiations in the next six months? That's why "no deal" is so bad. That's why people sound panicked. 13/15

The only real "Project Fear" is the terror those who understand how the Article 50 process works feel at the prospect of failing to reach a deal before the clock ticks down to 11pm on 29 March 2019. And that's the truth. 14/15

Thanks for reading this far. Sorry it was such a long read. Please spread the word if you feel it deserves a wider audience. Again, thank you. 15/15

(P.S. If you're thinking about retweeting a post in this thread - thank you, lovely person!🍻 - then it's probably most useful to retweet the first one, because then people get to see the whole thread in context...)

Added: if you're still having difficulty visualising the Article 50 process, imagine a conveyor belt with a pool full of sharks at the end. We chose to get on the belt totally unprepared. It WILL dump us in the pool on 29 March 2019. Only way to stop the belt is to reach a deal.

Added #2: no deal doesn’t mean the status quo. No deal is as far from the status quo as it’s possible to be. No deal = no withdrawal agreement = no transition period. Over the cliff on March 29 2019, with NI, Gibraltar, fate of UK citizens in EU & EU citizens in UK all 🤷🏻‍♂️