@RichardElwes@sjwrenlewis 2) (sorry, 2 "either"s there....)
As with Richard, this is not about my beliefs but public perception
Soft Brexit = Betrayal/Vassal state portrayal from Leavers, instant political cost
Hard Brexit = economic cost, which obviously leads to political cost in short order
@RichardElwes@sjwrenlewis 3) the public are fickle, and even if for example lucrative Free Trade Deals were out there the leaver vote is as likely to be more protectionist in nature.
Many leavers may see Free trade as "everyone else buying our stuff, with no downside on our industry in return"
@RichardElwes@sjwrenlewis 4) Corbyn is reaching out to this protectionist feeling in the latest "bring the jobs back" Labour video.
There will be hostility to wide ranging FTAs which could disrupt farming & manufacturing still further post Brexit
@RichardElwes@sjwrenlewis 5) so neither version of Brexit can likely succeed & the party that delivers it will be blamed, sooner or later.
Even if the Tories deliver it & Labour try to pick up the pieces there will be significant Remainers who will be angry at Labour's inaction before implementation
@RichardElwes@sjwrenlewis 6) ultimately any Brexit will destroy any party that puts it in place. The only sensible path is to seek a clear mandate through a people's vote, this is not ideal but all other paths lead to destruction for either major party
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1) It's still Hard #Brexit - thread
Couple of things to point out as we head to "Canada ++++"
A) it suits the EU as a fallback but
B) as far as the UK is concerned, its still damaging, draining, hardest of hard Brexits & nothing to be celebrated
Here's what we've forgotten
2) firstly, yes the EU27 would prefer we remain & if not they'd prefer a close arrangement - but at this point they'd settle for the island of Ireland being protected & an orderly exit
They're not going to save us from ourselves
They can minimise the damage of UK leaving SM
3) so let's not kid ourselves that the EU27 will make sure we get a good deal or one that has minimal damage to the UK, they will look after each other, they have to.
All the ++ means is cooperation in certain areas, not untold riches or a "special deal"
1) Thread - Labour, dodgy right Brexit activities & missed opportunities
Today I was a bystander in a discussion between @OwenJones84 & @JolyonMaugham around tweeting on Vote Leave's illegal spending, which I think is part of a bigger missed opportunity on #Brexit for Labour
2) Lets just be honest - the Tory party & #Brexit has always been dodgy. Charlatans who misled people given high government office and all that. But the last few months have had some significant revelations of dubious practices, only one of which was Vote Leave illegal spending
3) I wont't even get a complete list here but some highlights are:
- Cambridge Analytica "harvested accounts" scandal
- Links with AIQ & the Trump campaigns
- Vote Leave overspending
- Lack of clarity on Leave.EU funding
1) Corbyn, control & democracy
The attempt to crush the #PeoplesVote initiative from Corbyn's team should ring alarm bells for anyone who values democracy
& transparency, inside Labour or outside. He is and will always be an authoritarian
2) you can argue back and forth on whether a #PeoplesVote is strategically good, bad or horrendous for Labour, or that Corbyn's offer to work with the Tories on #Brexit is "political theatre". The fact is the new Labour position is the exact opposite of what the members wanted
3) the reality is, 150 local parties submitted motions and the overwhelming majority supported a people's vote with an option to remain.
That has somehow completely transformed into a Labour offer to compromise the 6 tests for a Tory led Brexit
2) let's just look at the chronology
I) Starmer (but no one else in Leadership) talks occasionally over last 2 years about "exact same benefits" 6 tests
ii) privately, @BarryGardiner describes them as nonsense
@BarryGardiner 3) iii) in run up to conference, probably because they know there is a huge influx of CLP motions asking for an early vote, Corbyn & others start talking about the 6 tests really for the first time.
1) Great article on why #Brexit is insoluble
We can rail about respecting the vote, the EU being stubborn,May being incompetent etc all day long. The fact is it cannot be negotiated successfully, and anyone who believes otherwise is mistaken #Lab18
1) Numerous Lexit commentators saying "Remain option will kill Labour"
*This* Brexit is a Tory program, just as austerity was. And austerity got a big vote in 2010 & an even bigger one in 2015.
If it's the wrong policy it should be opposed, even if it's "popular" #Lab18
2) this Labour movement has criticised the last for being Tory-lite on austerity. Fair enough.
But how then can Labour be Tory-lite on #Brexit, which will also hit their voters as austerity did?
Because it won one dodgy vote? #Lab18
3) "we can't fight austerity/repeal of gay marriage/the return of hanging/windrush deportations because they're popular in some key seats"?
The idea is ludicrous, so why is fighting for what you believe on #Brexit different? #lab18