Partisan gerrymandering returns to SCOTUS today as the North Carolina legislative defendants are due to file their jurisdiction statement asking the Justices to hear the case. We’ll post it here 👇when it is available: brennancenter.org/legal-work/com…#fairmaps#ncpol 1/
The NC legislative defendants are asking SCOTUS to overturn the ruling of a three-judge panel striking down North Carolina’s congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. That ruling here: brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps#ncpol 2/
What ordinarily happens next under the Supreme Court rules is that the plaintiffs have 30 days (until Nov 1) file a motion asking SCOTUS to decide the case without oral argument. The plaintiffs could waive the right to file such a motion, but that’s rare. #fairmaps#ncpol 3/
Assuming that they do file the motion described in the last tweet, the legislative defendants would have 14 days (Nov 15) to respond. After that the papers would be submitted to the Justices for consideration re whether to hear the case. #fairmaps#ncpol 4/
The Justices will then consider the case at one of their weekly conferences, shown in green below.
They often consider cases over multiple conferences before announcing that they will take it. That’s where things could get interesting. #fairmaps#ncpol 6/
Once the justices announce that they will hear argument in a case that sets off a second round of briefing, which takes around 105 days, assuming no extensions. #fairmaps#ncpol 7/
If the Justices agree in Nov or Dec to hear the case, the second round of briefing would be done in time for the high court to hear the case in March or April. But if they wait until January, the case likely gets argued next term and not this one. #fairmaps#ncpol 8/
A lot could depend on whether there is a 9th Justice any time in the near future or, if the Kennedy seat remains vacant, whether 4 justices are willing to set the case for argument without a full court. #fairmaps#ncpol 9/
Likewise, it is possible that the Justices might decide to carry the NC case on their docket (i.e., not decide on hearing it) in order to give other partisan gerrymandering cases in WI, MD, OH & MI a chance to catch up. #fairmaps#ncpol 10/
At the end of the day, they have the word ‘Supreme’ in their job title, so 🤷🏻♂️#fairmaps#ncpol 11/
JUST IN: Here’s 👇the North Carolina legislative defendants’ jurisdiction statement asking SCOTUS to hear their partisan gerrymandering appeal: brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps#ncpol 12/
More on what happens next in the NC partisan gerrymandering appeal in the preceding ☝️thread. #fairmaps#ncpol 13/
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BREAKING: Federal court rules that plaintiffs in North Carolina partisan gerrymandering case have standing to pursue claims (with one exception) and affirms earlier ruling that congressional map is unconstitutional. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 1/
Decision is 2-1, with Judge Osteen dissenting. Majority opinion runs to 294 pages. #fairmaps 2/
Court says it has not yet decided whether to give the North Carolina legislature the opportunity to attempt to redraw congressional map, but says that if the NC lege wants to redraw map it needs to finish process by 9/17 at 5 p.m. #fairmaps 3/
So here’s one way to think of the differences over what it would take for Democrats to win a majority in 2018.
Imagine that there is a 10.6 foot wall. Democrats somehow need to get over that wall to get a majority. #fairmaps 1/
Now, one way to do so would be to build a 10.6 foot ladder - or better yet an 11 foot one because a bit of extra is helpful in these things. #fairmaps 2/
But some think, we’ll, maybe you won’t need a 10.6 foot ladder because it’s been raining a lot and I think there are probably going to be some mudslides that push up against the wall. Ds may only need a 7-8 foot ladder. #fairmaps 3/
Democrats could win a majority in the U.S. House this November, but thanks to gerrymandering, doing so would require a near unprecedented win in the national vote. @lauraroyden and I explain in today's NYT: nytimes.com/2018/03/25/opi…#fairmaps 1/
For more detail, here's the study that @lauraroyden, @yurijrudensky, and I wrote looking at the impact of extreme gerrymandering on the 2018 midterm. #fairmaps 2/
We find that to be favored to win back a majority, Democrats would need to win the national vote by nearly 11 points (i.e., 55.5% to 45.5%). That would be a larger margin than either the 2006 D wave or the 2010 R wave. #fairmaps 3/
BREAKING: SCOTUS partially stays new North Carolina legislative maps. Thomas & Alito would have stayed in entirety. Ginsburg & Sotomayor would denied stay in entirety. #ncpol#fairmaps 1/
Stay by SCOTUS is as to special master's revision of state house districts in Wake & Mecklenburg counties. #ncpol#fairmaps 2/
The issue in Wake & Mecklenburg counties was that the NC legislature altered districts that were not found to be racial gerrymanders or that abutted districts that were racial gerrymanders. #ncpol#fairmaps 3/
This week will be a momentous one on the redistricting front - with action in legal challenges to two of the worst congressional maps of the decade: Pennsylvania & North Carolina. #fairmaps 1/
In PA, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on 1/17 in a challenge seeking to have the state's congressional map invalidated as a partisan gerrymander under state law. #fairmaps 2/ brennancenter.org/legal-work/lea…
Although several other ongoing cases in federal court challenging various maps under federal law, the Pennsylvania case is the first major case to raise a challenge under state constitutional law - which makes it worth watching for several reasons. #fairmaps 3/
BREAKING: North Carolina congressional map struck down as partisan gerrymander. #fairmaps
Map struck down was North Carolina’s second congressional map of the decade. First was invalidated as racial gerrymander. Lege redrew but required new map to maintain 10-3 GOP advantage. #fairmaps 2/