I’m a fan of @JustineGreening - she was my minister at DFID. What she is talking about here though is a vote between Brexit options, which is not, I’m afraid, viable.
We have to be honest that the only choice is between what May brings (or no deal) & revoking Art50. 1/
Firstly, EU27 will have no interest in renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, or in agreeing the extension to A50 necessary for a referendum that could result in a renegotiation, and creates more, not less uncertainty. 2/
So there’s no Chequers (it won’t be Chequers, why do people keep talking about Chequers?) vs EEA, or Canada+ vs Chequers or any other form of Brexit vs form of Brexit option available. 3/
Secondly, if anyone thinks that the half a million people-plus campaigning for a #peoplesvote are doing it to be given a choice between a crap Brexit and a slightly less crap Brexit, they’re in for a big shock. 4/
If that is what is delivered by @peoplesvote_hq , they’ll find hundreds of thousands of activists that supported a meaningful vote with an option to remain accusing them, rightly, of using their support then selling them out. 5/
And this is if there is a Withdrawal Agreement, which looks less likely each day at the moment. Nobody could believe for a second that a No Deal vs a non-available Renegotiation would be viable. 6/
Greening (hopefully rightly) says Parliament will not allow No Deal, and that must extend to rejecting it as an option in any ref. 7/
I’m sure some will read this thread thinking “FFS Steve, just STFU now and we’ll deal with this later”. Well, no. It is later already, and we have to be honest about what we are campaigning for. If we aren’t, we’re just as bad as the other side. Soz. 8/8
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A quick thread on the two points here: 1) a referendum on the Withdrawal Agreement & Political Declaration damages democracy, and 2) it would encourage a descent into populism. Both reasonable concerns. Both are, I think, wrong though, and for closely linked reasons. 1/
On 1) as @davidallengreen (who is against a ref on the deal for other reasons, some of which I disagree with) has pointed out many times, and pointed out again yesterday, a referendum can be democratic or irreversible, but not both. 2/ jackofkent.com/2018/10/why-re…
And it would be a referendum. If the 52% are still the 52%, the UK would still leave the EU. If they are not the 52% anymore, but 48%, or 45%, or 35%, then the UK would otherwise be leaving the EU at a point at which the majority were against it doing so. 3/
Are people still writing to their MPs on Brexit and the need for a #FinalSay/#Peoplesvote? If not, we should be. MPs get mail/emails on an endless variety of issues, and if their postbag is not dominated by opposition to Brexit they won't feel the pressure to act. 1/
I know some people are, and I know people have and have got no reply so it seems pointless to do it again, but it really isn't. It needs to be sustained and widespread to get through, but MPs genuinely take notice of this. 2/
Also, when MPs see opinion polls, they always think their constituency is different and an exception if what they see in their postbag/inbox and on the doorstep doesn't chime with the polls. 3/
Lot of conflicting views on what’s being called Brexit “hell week” this week. This is the latest I’ve seen, and looks like things are not progressing as fast as some predicted. 1/
Leads one to suspect that the DUP have been on the line to Number 10 again on the backstop 2/
And, if this report is correct, it looks like May is resisting the reported EU27 proposal of a Political Declaration with a blah-blah commitment to a close relationship, but only the options should UKGov red lines move in the future detailed. 3/
Imagine a person so filled with hatred that they would listen to @CakeWatchCast solely to find something to fill a vile message to a fellow human with.
Now imagine a govt telling them they are winners & in the right, and that the people they are abusing are the losers & wrong.
Now imagine a population where few people care enough to speak up. That would rather not stick their head above the parapet. That is just glad it’s not them getting the abuse, and will stay silent as long as that’s the case.
Now go on to think about a National broadcast media regulated by statute, that gives a platform constantly to those that deliberately spread this message.
I had not thought of that for the Political Declaration. Allows for substance, but still allows muddying by UKGov on the likelihood of getting agreement in its favour.
Not a blind, but a one-eye-covered Brexit. Objects are in view, but no sense of how close or far away they are.
On the other hand, it could lay bare the fundamental disagreements, and those who genuinely still think the EU27 are bluffing on key issues are surely disproportionately located in the crackpot ERG faction.
How reassured would Parliament be by May telling them that the disagreements are not fundamental and she believes they can be agreed?
Wait for friction at the border. It’ll be catastrophic for Florists. 70% of flowers in the UK come from the Netherlands, and are delivered next morning to maximise shelf and vase life. Every hour of delay is an hour off that. 1/
The overwhelming majority of florists are small, local businesses employing only 1 or 2 people. There are no cost-cuts they can make, and the proposition of selling a non-necessity that lasts less time for a higher price will make them hard to sustain. 2/
In addition to the increase in costs from GBP’s devaluation, Florent, the trade association, predict another 14% increase in costs from leaving the SM/CU. Here’s more information from @AlynSmith. 3/ thenational.scot/news/16135092.…