Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Oct 1, 2018 3 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
McGrath (D)’s problem is that she’s well past the point of diminishing returns in a market as cheap as Lexington & even risks fatiguing #KY06 voters (see Ossoff, Jon).
By contrast, there are still a lot of races without star candidates that are *underfunded* for Dems. Dems risk leaving a few of them on the table on Election Night.
This is precisely what happened to ‘17 VA Dems, who *underestimated* the wave and failed to adequately fund a bunch of 2nd-tier Dems who fell just short while many of the best-funded won by a mile.

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More from @Redistrict

Aug 20, 2018
A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population.
And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full display in 2018: nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opi…
For all the gerrymandering in the House, it's actually the Senate that's vastly more unrepresentative. The fact it's remotely close owes to 11 red-state Dem senators - almost entirely up in 2018 - who have hung on thanks to an extraordinary combination of skill & luck.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 9, 2018
Signs you’re in danger of a wave:

1) your voters aren’t turning out
2) your incumbents are getting outraised
3) the other party has candidates in virtually all 435 districts
4) you keep waiting for things to “get better” and they don’t.

2010, meet your mirror image: 2018.
I could add many more:

5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits
6) voters start caring about your side’s scandals a lot more than your opponents’
7) you recently started voting against your own party/president but voters aren’t giving you any credit
2010: Year of Angry White Senior (‘08 Obama coalition of young/non-white voters stays home)

2018: Year of Angry Female College Grad (‘16 Trump base of non-college men not showing up)
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28, 2018
Just finished calculating: in 2016, 70% of U.S. voters lived in "landslide precincts" (20%+ margin either way), up from 64% in 2012.

This map shows America literally coming apart.

And no, this rapid geopolarization isn't attributable to gerrymandering (though it's helped make partisan gerrymandering much more effective).
It doesn't matter which map format you prefer (dot, cartogram, etc.). The essential takeaway - the disappearance of purple America - is the same. fivethirtyeight.com/features/purpl…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 19, 2018
Breaking: @CookPolitical PVI values for the new PA map (h/t @bycoffe). Note: districts were totally renumbered, so careful on before/after. Will walk thru the biggest changes below. 1/
New #PA01 (old #PA08): Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - takes in a less GOP-friendly portion of Montco, PVI ticks down from R+2 to R+1
New #PA02 (old #PA01): this should be a safe NE Philly district for Rep. Brendan Boyle (D). PVI D+25
Read 8 tweets

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