A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population. And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full display in 2018: nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opi…

Signs you’re in danger of a wave:

1) your voters aren’t turning out
2) your incumbents are getting outraised
3) the other party has candidates in virtually all 435 districts
4) you keep waiting for things to “get better” and they don’t.

2010, meet your mirror image: 2018. I could add many more:

5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits
6) voters start caring about your side’s scandals a lot more than your opponents’
7) you recently started voting against your own party/president but voters aren’t giving you any credit

Just finished calculating: in 2016, 70% of U.S. voters lived in "landslide precincts" (20%+ margin either way), up from 64% in 2012.

This map shows America literally coming apart.

nyti.ms/2JX3LBj And no, this rapid geopolarization isn't attributable to gerrymandering (though it's helped make partisan gerrymandering much more effective).

Breaking: @CookPolitical PVI values for the new PA map (h/t @bycoffe). Note: districts were totally renumbered, so careful on before/after. Will walk thru the biggest changes below. 1/ New #PA01 (old #PA08): Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - takes in a less GOP-friendly portion of Montco, PVI ticks down from R+2 to R+1