Expectation : Nifty fut goes below 10540, maybe breaks low, then goes up and crosses 10565. This will be a short-trap. Will the buy > 10565, add positions above 10580 and 10595. Initial SL will be 10540 ( 10.07AM)
Not looking to short here , today shorting Nifty fut will not be easy #not_advised
First part done, will now buy if 10565 is crossed, Sl 10540
If my analysis is correct, then shorters below 10536 will not get 15-20 points
nah, my analysis was probably wrong
days these types of analysis does not work, this becomes just an intellectual exercise. Days these works, I make a killing . Generally these type of analysis is against crowd consensus 😀
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This is where the first short was, then shorted more on the way down. Due to high vol, starting with 1 lot and then punching volumes if the trade goes in my favour. Else would have been out with SL on a single contract . High VIX --> different strategies
Seeing quite a few msgs on twitter how one bought stocks at 2008 high , stocks went down 80% and then they sold at 5x of buying price . Funny no one bought DLF , Unitech, Suzlon, Rcom etc . Don't jump into buy on this survivorship bias based stories
The amount of mutual fund money which flowed into the bourses based upon the #MutualFundsSahiHai slogan lifted all stocks . Such a liquidity flow might not be repeated in the future if the MFs now take a big hit .
If you want to buy for long term as an investor , wait for the PE ratios to drop further . Sharing a study which I did long ago , but the principles still hold true
This is the crux of all complicated option selling strategies . Nothing so simple can work across all market conditions .
This model has a problem . It's assumed that IV will mean revert , as it has done since 2015 . But what if the volatility regime changes ? IV is not a bounded indicator which has an upper and a lower ceiling. What if IV continues to go up ?
Volatility has 3 characteristics . Persistency , cyclicity and mean reversion .