Keeping a watch out on Reliance Inds fut. Crossing of 1114 should propel a bullish move Triggered, in . SL 1104

V_Scalper rulez !!!😀 213 to 226, another good trade by the V_Scalper

Twi first on recco of my good friend @Amit_Gulecha , then 2 more.

What a trade !! Take a bow @Amit_Gulecha 🙏🙏 This is where the first short was, then shorted more on the way down. Due to high vol, starting with 1 lot and then punching volumes if the trade goes in my favour. Else would have been out with SL on a single contract . High VIX --> different strategies

For the first time after 5 days, bullish setups on major stocks and indices. 10310 should not break for this bullish momentum to continue First clean trade on Nifty fut

Seeing quite a few msgs on twitter how one bought stocks at 2008 high , stocks went down 80% and then they sold at 5x of buying price . Funny no one bought DLF , Unitech, Suzlon, Rcom etc . Don't jump into buy on this survivorship bias based stories The amount of mutual fund money which flowed into the bourses based upon the #MutualFundsSahiHai slogan lifted all stocks . Such a liquidity flow might not be repeated in the future if the MFs now take a big hit .

1. IV > HV
2. High IVR
3. Sell strangles 2SD away

This is the crux of all complicated option selling strategies . Nothing so simple can work across all market conditions . This model has a problem . It's assumed that IV will mean revert , as it has done since 2015 . But what if the volatility regime changes ? IV is not a bounded indicator which has an upper and a lower ceiling. What if IV continues to go up ?

Re-instated the ICICIBANK put spread 300-190 at 1.95 in the volatility, good rates 😀 Someone jumped and took both my orders at one go , hitting the bid at one strike and the ask at another strike, good for me 😀😀

#EVENT_TRADE initiated. Focus is low risk and ability to carry trade overnight.
Bought 23700 PE at 47 and sold 23400 PE at 27, equal quantity.
Net/Max risk = Rs.20 , Max Gain possible = Rs.280 if by Thursday BNF expires below 23400.
Ideally will start booking profits if I get 1:3 If you follow this trade, follow this as it is.

Expectation : Nifty fut goes below 10540, maybe breaks low, then goes up and crosses 10565. This will be a short-trap. Will the buy > 10565, add positions above 10580 and 10595. Initial SL will be 10540 ( 10.07AM) Not looking to short here , today shorting Nifty fut will not be easy #not_advised

Heard on twitter that Jetlee is coing with oil kaa ketli.

bought a ONGC 170 put to honour him ;) A cool 1 rupee ;)

I have started reinstating my ICICIBANK 300-290 puts at 2.50 debit, in with 25% positions.
chanda toh sirf jhanki hai, story abhi baki hai 🤣🤣

#contracall #khujli_trade Bought YESBANK fut at 217.2, SL 216 Sl to 216.95 #no losstrade #aaryapaar

Around Feb this year, got approached by a trader whom I met thru another analyst/trader friend . Says he has huge losses from trading , is stressed, admires me and wants my help. Though I do not run any advisory, agree to share my trading ideas as i am really sorry about him If you have watched me in Feb 2018, I was hugely correct in the downfall on Nifty and individual stocks like SBI, PNB, TataSteel etc. This guy traded along with me, called me when required to ask for guidance.

I am posting two charts of Adani Ent fut. The charts are self explanatory to any student of technical analysis, so make your own view and trades according to your risk profile.

Post the YesBank rout , many have been pointing out the OI behavior before the fall which clearly indicated massive shorts being slowly built into the system . I will post the YesBank OI chart later . However , what's more interesting is the same OI pattern is almost (1/n) ...being repeated in another stock .
This is why I had asked " aagla kaun hai , DhundoIndiaDhundo".
I am not going to name it and jinx my trade , so get down with data and find the trade .
Best of luck :)

The proprietary State of the Markets (SOTM) model on Nifty fut - Has just turned long term bearish This is what happened when it turned bearish on BankNifty fut a few days ago

I expect to be trolled on twitter for a very wrong view/call. Had this idea that in general if my calls/views are correct , then there will not be trolling (1/n) Then came across a species who while being kids when asked to write the " aim in life " essay , wrote " I want to be an internet troll when I grow up " (2/n)

Some major seller at 185.80 levels. shorted here at 185 with Sl 186 This can turn very nasty very fast

YESBANK short positional strategy : Buy 1 lot 220 put, sell 1 lot 170 put and 1 lot 160 put.
Warning : This is an unlimited loss strategy if YESBANK breaks 160 This is called a "bear put ladder" , do google to know more

Intraday Volatility - A thread
The true range is the largest of the:

Most recent period's high minus the most recent period's low
Absolute value of the most recent period's high minus the previous close
Absolute value of the most recent period's low minus the previous close So, True range gives an estimation how much we are moving everyday. In short, whether we are in calm markets or volatile markets. In my charts, I have used TR as a percentage of current close

If we now cross 11002, bear move for the day should be over. Bought puts here at 10985 with 11002 as SL