#EVENT_TRADE initiated. Focus is low risk and ability to carry trade overnight.
Bought 23700 PE at 47 and sold 23400 PE at 27, equal quantity.
Net/Max risk = Rs.20 , Max Gain possible = Rs.280 if by Thursday BNF expires below 23400.
Ideally will start booking profits if I get 1:3
If you follow this trade, follow this as it is.
Understand this : you are not going to lose rs.20 immediately whatever happens, that will take till Thursday. The aim of this position is that if RBI increases interest rates by 50 basis points or above and the BNf crashes, then to get money. Else we can lose hardly Rs.10 or less
Carry this spread home over the weekend, I am doing so :)
See this. Learn. This is how you make money coolly with minimal risk.
Let BNF dance, we are not going to dance with it :)
Spread at 60, booked profits on 50% of positions. Rest positions now isn #noloss. Will carry overnight #tradethe plan
Sabko paisa mila ? Sabka bikas hua ? 🤣
This trade practically had a risk of Rs.10 . So at closing when we were getting 60 on the spread, it meant Rs.50 profit, a 1:5 risk reward trade. Hence booked profits. Stop for remaining position at buying price of Rs.20 on the spread
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This is where the first short was, then shorted more on the way down. Due to high vol, starting with 1 lot and then punching volumes if the trade goes in my favour. Else would have been out with SL on a single contract . High VIX --> different strategies
Seeing quite a few msgs on twitter how one bought stocks at 2008 high , stocks went down 80% and then they sold at 5x of buying price . Funny no one bought DLF , Unitech, Suzlon, Rcom etc . Don't jump into buy on this survivorship bias based stories
The amount of mutual fund money which flowed into the bourses based upon the #MutualFundsSahiHai slogan lifted all stocks . Such a liquidity flow might not be repeated in the future if the MFs now take a big hit .
If you want to buy for long term as an investor , wait for the PE ratios to drop further . Sharing a study which I did long ago , but the principles still hold true
This is the crux of all complicated option selling strategies . Nothing so simple can work across all market conditions .
This model has a problem . It's assumed that IV will mean revert , as it has done since 2015 . But what if the volatility regime changes ? IV is not a bounded indicator which has an upper and a lower ceiling. What if IV continues to go up ?
Volatility has 3 characteristics . Persistency , cyclicity and mean reversion .