Thread by @MatinaStevis

#thread on inter-election #Kenya.
Signs of econ slowdown, common in all election cycles, exacerbated now. Thus downgrade of 2017 growth

#Kenya can't afford slowdown for debt repayment & other reasons. Heightening of tensions bolsters uncertainty & raises bar for normalization

Anything below 6% growth for Kenya is huge underperformance; we're looking at roughly 4.5% this year after 2 revisions by intl experts

But it's not just the economy. The toxicity of judiciary/executive standoff shows #Kenya at a critical juncture in its democratic evolution

In future we will look back to the courts-govt standoff of 2017 [fallout will become clearer in 2018] & describe it as definitive moment

Observing the crackdown on students & universities incl shuttering of Nairobi Uni. In 1970s Europe similar crackdowns were turning points

Universities are important spaces: I recommend a look at 1970s Greece, Spain & role of students & unis in bolstering/defense of democracy

So no, the shuttering of Nairobi Uni is not to be taken as a "security measure" per the official narrative. It means a lot more than that

Courts & universities have historically played central role in democracies everywhere. See this play out in #Kenya today as it has elsehwere

World is watching this closely, #kenya has a lot to gain from handling challenging period well. Most Kenyans are, politicos, less so

I see economy-courts-schools nexus as critical: leaders shd leave all alone to do their jobs, elections disruptive but can't be debilitating