Thread by @Usherwood

Another stab at summarising the structure of #A50, with some comments

1.

The key pt from this is that the path to a 'no-deal' is relatively easy

2/

That's because it relies on frustrating the efforts at coordination needed for other outcomes to happen

3/

ie 'no-deal' has weight because it's the default condition, thanks to 2-yr time limit

4/

moreover, it becomes ever easier, because the less time that remains, the less chance of being able to agree a deal

5/

Of course, it all parties are committed to a deal, then time extension becomes an option, but that depends on good faith & momentum

6/

Which is why HMG & COM have spent so much time/effort on keeping that rhetoric

7/

As is regularly noted, COM is UK's best friend in these negotiations, as strong interest in finding deal & demonstrating its value

8/

However, route 1 to a deal remains making current process work, not relying on peril down the line

9/

So HMG wld be misguided to play the peril card of threatening to walk or stalling.

10/

Basic problem remains that UK domestic and A50 incentives don't line up very well, so expect more confusion.

11/

In summary: a 'no-deal' is a non-negligible risk, even if almost no-one wants it

/end