Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 18, 2017 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

Another stab at summarising the structure of #A50, with some comments

1.

The key pt from this is that the path to a 'no-deal' is relatively easy

2/

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Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018

While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/

Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/

It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 8, 2018

So, what to make of today?

1/

Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/

Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 5, 2018

Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/

Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/

The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1047894474209333248

3/

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 4, 2018

Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1047825916905357312

By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?

As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/966422224688287744

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 4, 2018

Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up

If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD

Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now

Simon Usherwood

@Usherwood

Oct 3, 2018

So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/

Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/

Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/

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