Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Oct 18, 2017 12 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Another stab at summarising the structure of #A50, with some comments

1.
The key pt from this is that the path to a 'no-deal' is relatively easy

2/
That's because it relies on frustrating the efforts at coordination needed for other outcomes to happen

3/
ie 'no-deal' has weight because it's the default condition, thanks to 2-yr time limit

4/
moreover, it becomes ever easier, because the less time that remains, the less chance of being able to agree a deal

5/
Of course, it all parties are committed to a deal, then time extension becomes an option, but that depends on good faith & momentum

6/
Which is why HMG & COM have spent so much time/effort on keeping that rhetoric

7/
As is regularly noted, COM is UK's best friend in these negotiations, as strong interest in finding deal & demonstrating its value

8/
However, route 1 to a deal remains making current process work, not relying on peril down the line

9/
So HMG wld be misguided to play the peril card of threatening to walk or stalling.

10/
Basic problem remains that UK domestic and A50 incentives don't line up very well, so expect more confusion.

11/
In summary: a 'no-deal' is a non-negligible risk, even if almost no-one wants it

/end

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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