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The Oct #EUCO decided that while there was progress on Phase I of talks, there wasn't sufficient progress
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That meant no opening of Phase II talks in #A50, just preparation of a mandate for them, as a bone to show willing/good faith
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UK needs Phase II to start in Dec, so that's there are 10 mths to conclude a deal (remember it needs 6mths to ratify pre-March 19)
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As any passing negotiator will tell you, 10 mths isn't long for this kind of thing, esp as this isn't a usual kind of thing
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Even the simplest Phase II arrangements - 'just' taking UK out of institutions, keeping everything else in transition - is fraught
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with political risks and problems (imagine the UK headlines, if nothing else).
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So a Dec move to Phase II is hard enough. But if there's still no 'sufficient progress' by Dec, it's March 18 before the next evaluation
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That means only 7mths, plus the added bad odour over a further 3mths of messing about.
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#EUCO used its one bone already (the mandate), so Dec mtg might lead to a hard Xmas, with no presents for anyone
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The hard version of this is set out in @jonlis1's tweet yesterday
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He focused on back-end risks to all this, but the main message I'd take is that things are still open now: this is the best moment left
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HMG can (and might) be pushing more on finances and citizens' rights in coming rounds, but it needs to do that sooner rather than later
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Which is why all the stuff going on in Westminster matters. Bandwidth taken up with scandals/crisis mtg can't be used to advance #A50
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(unless you take a more Machiavellian view that these crises divert attention from making #A50 concessions...
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which assumes a level of planning/strategising not immediately borne out by the evidence)
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