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Willy Woo Profile picture
@woonomic
Dec 3, 2017 • 33 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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My #consensusinvest talk in a bunch of tweets. Special thanks to @CoinDesk for making the day possible. Hoping we’ll see a video edit soon. /1 
I don’t come from Wall St. I’m not a formally trained analyst. My background comes from the world of emerging tech and startups. Hence my view and analysis tends to be outside of the box. /2

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More from @woonomic

Willy Woo Profile picture
Sep 25, 2018
Outstanding talk by @nic__carter at @hodlhodl's #hb2018.

Some highlights... Quoted text are from Nic's talk, the rest is my commentary.

"Container ships, not parcels."

"Bitcoin - $3k avg transaction"

Credit cards (2012 figures):
Visa - $91
Mastercard - $92
Amex - $150
"We are within an order of magnitude away from Visanet throughput."

@blockchain's estimates are shown here, which I agree are conservative. I would guess we are within 3 years away for exceeding Visanet volume throughput.
"Bitcoin volumes in context"

"Bitcoin just recently surpassed Gold OTC settlement markets"

One of these lines is not like the others :). Bitcoin is still in its earlier stage of the adoption S-curve. Best estimates is 1%-3% of world population.
Read 12 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Sep 17, 2018
Bitcoin has seen only 3 bear markets in its history**. We are in the third one now. One signal we can use to determine the end of the bear is for the price to cross above its 200 day moving average.

(** this is a big discussion in itself)
Let's check my fav long range indicator... NVT Ratio.

NVT peaks during bear markets, it's been criticised for being laggy in detecting bears, however it is a LEADING indicator to signal the end of the bear.

NVT returns to it's normal range BEFORE the next accumulation phase.
Under NVT we are in the middle of the bear.

In the 2014 bear, there was this zone where volatility dropped to levels suggesting accumulation had begun. We thought the bottom was in.
Read 9 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
Jul 27, 2018
Sentiment is bullish, but I doubt we'll break $8.5k volume profile PoC & 200MA. I think sideways, then downwards over the coming weeks to complete the third dead kitten, sliding downwards until a sustained sideways period to normalise volatility and NVT and a bull setup for 2019.
The 3rd dead kitten. Fractally speaking, I'm framing this last down leg as an oscillation around the main move. The green line is just magic crayons for short range TAs to determine, the retest target and rate of decline are the things I'm watching. NVT only mildly supports this.
Leveraged short positions now near all time high. Anyone got a spare $35m in their trade account? Should be enough to trigger all those stops for a payday.

See 12th April 2018. (Be care shorting out there.)
Read 9 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
May 31, 2018
A trip down memory lane... The earliest #bitcoin price chart I've found is from bitcoincharts.com of "Bitcoin Market". This was pre-MtGox. On May 25, 2010 #Bitcoin was trading at 0.3 cents. 1000 BTC was traded that day, for a 24hr volume of $3 USD. @cryptotwitter
The famous Bitcoin Pizza Day was only 3 days earlier on 22 May 2010 when Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two Papa John's pizzas. 0.25 cents per BTC. Apparently the market rate was 0.41 cents per BTC. (via @Investopedia)
During 2010, pre Mt Gox, alongside BitcoinMarket.com, there was also The Bitcoin Exchange in operation. I'd love to see their price data to reconstruct the full price chart 2009-2018, if anyone has it.
Read 6 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
May 26, 2018
I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can't see $7000 holding. Most likely we'll balance a bit, then we'll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess. /1
1) NVT Signal is still too high. We need more blockchain transactional activity to justify the current price, or the price to drop to reconcile the difference. To drive up transactional activity in a bear slide is very unlikely IMO. /2
2) Volatility is still too high. I'm looking for a sustained low band of volatility which tends to be a signal for the end of the detox and the next accumulation phase. It's still got some time to ride down. /3
Read 12 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
May 23, 2018
Interesting to see @PeterLBrandt is calling for a 65% chance wedge support support failing and a bottom of $3505 based on TA models. This would be inline with the peak to trough retrace we had in the 2013->2015 bear market. /1
The question to ask is whether we can unwind from Dec 2017's mania in the $6k-$7k range, or that fails and we're forced to consolidate lower like in 2014. This was the moment of truth in 2014. When support broke and we were forced to unwind at the lower levels... /2
But in 2018 I see none of the weakness of 2014. Those down-whiskers in 2014 were pretty tragic, buyers were weak. Here in 2018 the whiskers are very muted. There's lots of liquidity holding this thing up. /4
Read 6 tweets

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