Outstanding talk by @nic__carter at @hodlhodl's #hb2018.

Some highlights... Quoted text are from Nic's talk, the rest is my commentary.

"Container ships, not parcels."

"Bitcoin - $3k avg transaction"

Credit cards (2012 figures):
Visa - $91
Mastercard - $92
Amex - $150 "We are within an order of magnitude away from Visanet throughput."

@blockchain's estimates are shown here, which I agree are conservative. I would guess we are within 3 years away for exceeding Visanet volume throughput.

Bitcoin has seen only 3 bear markets in its history**. We are in the third one now. One signal we can use to determine the end of the bear is for the price to cross above its 200 day moving average.

(** this is a big discussion in itself) Let's check my fav long range indicator... NVT Ratio.

NVT peaks during bear markets, it's been criticised for being laggy in detecting bears, however it is a LEADING indicator to signal the end of the bear.

NVT returns to it's normal range BEFORE the next accumulation phase.

Sentiment is bullish, but I doubt we'll break $8.5k volume profile PoC & 200MA. I think sideways, then downwards over the coming weeks to complete the third dead kitten, sliding downwards until a sustained sideways period to normalise volatility and NVT and a bull setup for 2019. The 3rd dead kitten. Fractally speaking, I'm framing this last down leg as an oscillation around the main move. The green line is just magic crayons for short range TAs to determine, the retest target and rate of decline are the things I'm watching. NVT only mildly supports this.

A trip down memory lane... The earliest #bitcoin price chart I've found is from bitcoincharts.com of "Bitcoin Market". This was pre-MtGox. On May 25, 2010 #Bitcoin was trading at 0.3 cents. 1000 BTC was traded that day, for a 24hr volume of $3 USD. @cryptotwitter The famous Bitcoin Pizza Day was only 3 days earlier on 22 May 2010 when Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two Papa John's pizzas. 0.25 cents per BTC. Apparently the market rate was 0.41 cents per BTC. (via @Investopedia)

I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can't see $7000 holding. Most likely we'll balance a bit, then we'll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess. /1 1) NVT Signal is still too high. We need more blockchain transactional activity to justify the current price, or the price to drop to reconcile the difference. To drive up transactional activity in a bear slide is very unlikely IMO. /2

Interesting to see @PeterLBrandt is calling for a 65% chance wedge support support failing and a bottom of $3505 based on TA models. This would be inline with the peak to trough retrace we had in the 2013->2015 bear market. /1 The question to ask is whether we can unwind from Dec 2017's mania in the $6k-$7k range, or that fails and we're forced to consolidate lower like in 2014. This was the moment of truth in 2014. When support broke and we were forced to unwind at the lower levels... /2

I believe Bitcoin will never fulfil all of the properties of money.
- portability
- durability
- store of value
- medium of exchange
- unit if account

I think it's time we stop thinking about money as a sea shell, or a lump of silver, or a digital token. /1 We're in the digital age, why are we thinking about money as tokens? Tokens come from an Agrarian age. Maybe it's time revisit this as if we were children born into a digital age with no historic hangover. /2

Lots of conflicting bull and bear calls right now on BTCUSD. I've been asked a lot regarding my opinion. Let's see what NVT ratio says... Note NVT is a very long range pricing tool good for interpreting inter-month moves. /1 Refresher. NVT values BTC as if it's a payment network like PayPal or Visanet, you can use the value flowing through the network as a proxy for earning and therefore network valuation. This holds true for Bitcoin's network too. woobull.com/introducing-nv… /2

In a domain where tokenomics can be designed to reduce velocity (a.k.a token lockup), coin market-cap or network-valuation does not really have much semblance to real world valuation. /1

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For example BTC lockup is only from store of value HODL investors. ETH is both this and ERC20 engineered lockup whereby ICO investors scoop ETH to pass to ICO projects who HODL them. Thus with the introduction of an ERC20 smart contract, you are engineering tokenomic lockup. /2

My thoughts on crypto portfolios... I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce risk exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive but completely wrong move long term HODL investors make. /1 Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and balanced and may look something like this... /2

My #consensusinvest talk in a bunch of tweets. Special thanks to @CoinDesk for making the day possible. Hoping we’ll see a video edit soon. /1  I don’t come from Wall St. I’m not a formally trained analyst. My background comes from the world of emerging tech and startups. Hence my view and analysis tends to be outside of the box. /2