Thread by @Usherwood

So the #A50 bus got crashed yesterday, but why?

1/

Let's start with the obvious culprit in all this: the DUP. Why would they block the new text?

2/

If we assume HMG showed text to DUP beforehand, then only three options:

1) they misunderstood
2) they understood, then changed minds
3) they understood and always planned to block

3/

1) sounds possible, but DUP say they knew what's what (bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…): given long experience in such things, hard to believe they bought a pup

4/

2) also possible, especially if early leaks led to broad commentariat view that text meant NI being in CU/SM, caused doubts. But a gvt lawyer should have covered this base long before

5/

3) equally possible, but no clear signal of what price might be to unblock. Also unclear if DUP cld walk back from this,

6/

Of course, it might be that DUP didn't see text before, but they say they did, and both HMG/EU27 wld have wanted to make sure DUP was on board, so v.unlikely

7/

Last Q is whether DUP was actual issue. Evidence of other sticking points (eg CJEU powers:

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), so border might have been handy cover

8/

This I find difficult to credit: other points look like long-standing ones, so mvt over past week sounded like enough to get past these.

Also, everyone's really pushing for deal, so spoilers not coming from principals

9/

In summary, #A50 is hard to control, except negatively

/end