Thread by @Wonkypolicywonk

Sorry for the delay - got distracted by the day job. The first set of quarterly ET stats since the abolition of #ETfees in July are out, and here's a chart. 🤓 1/n
gov.uk/government/sta… #HR

In Q2 2017/18, there were 7,042 single claims/cases, and 429 multiple claimant cases. That's a 66% increase in single claims/cases, compared to the previous quarter, and a 62% increase on the same Q in 2016/17. 2/n #ukemplaw

HOWEVER (1/n): as Supreme Ct ruling on #ETfees was on 26 July, all the increase was in August & September (i.e. only 2/3 of the Quarter). So, there *might* be a further increase in Q3. 3/n #ukemplaw #HR

Then again, number of single claims/cases *fell* from 3,035 in August, to 2,639 in September. So, we need to see at least one more Q of stats before we can say v much about the 'new normal'. 4/n #ukemplaw #HR

That said, the 2,639 single claims/cases in September 2017 represents a 74% increase on June 2017, an 89% increase on September 2016, and an 85% increase on the monthly average over the 12m prior to July 2017. 5/n #ukemplaw

NB: Number of ET cases was never going to return to pre-ET fees levels, for two key reasons: (i) pre-existing (mild) downward trend in 2013, from recession-induced peak in 2009-10; and (ii) Acas early conciliation. 6/n #ukemplaw #HR

Increase in ET cases in Aug & Sept may not be entirely due to abolition of #ETfees. For example, the decision in Farmah may also be a factor. 7/n cloisters.com/blogs/farmah-v… #ukemplaw #HR

As @DazNewman has noted, one of the biggest jurisdictional increases is unpaid wages - average of 2,476 in Aug & Sept = increase of 206% on average of 808 in 6m < abolition of #ETfees. But still well below average of 5,168 in 6m < fees. 8/n #ukemplaw #HR

Another is breach of contract - average of 1,288 in Aug & Sept = increase of 89% on average of 681 in 6m < abolition of #ETfees. But still well below average of 2,350 in 6m < fees. #ukemplaw #HR

And another big jurisdictional increase is pregnancy detriment/dismissal: average of 136 in Aug & Sept = 81% increase on average of 75 in 6m < abolition of #ETfees, and *above* average of 127 in 6m < fees. #ukemplaw #HR

In contrast, an 80% increase in unfair dismissal claims, from an average of 974 in 6m < abolition of #ETfees to average of 1,754 in Aug & Sept, still falls a long way short of the the average of 3,716 in 6m < fees. 10/n #ukemplaw #HR

One possible explanation for the decrease in almost every jurisdiction from August to September is that the August figures might be inflated by cases/claims held back in late July, pending the Supreme Court ruling. 11/n #ukemplaw #HR

And, if September rather than August proves to be the 'new normal', then in some jurisdictions the increase in cases/claims may not be that significant, especially relative to pre-#ETfees levels. 12/n #ukemplaw #HR

See previous tweet. 13/n #ukemplaw #HR