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🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
@oliverbeige
Dec 31, 2017 • 16 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Here's #HalFinney's back-of-the-envelope calculation from January 2009. Let's update that and turn it into a collective decision problem.
I'm starting with a bunch of simplifying assumptions:
1. The "ultimate payoff of world domination" is fixed at $10m per coin.
2. All-or-nothing scenario: world domination or bust. (I actually disagree with that.)
3. No interest rate or NPV accounting.

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More from @oliverbeige

🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Sep 21, 2018
To assess the relevance of blockchain to economics, it might be useful to sidestep the politically charged topics for the moment, to postpone judgment on the feasibility of any currently proposed solutions, and to focus entirely on the problem it tries to tackle.
We can, if we want, divide the "machine age" into five phases that align with the automation of particular enterprise functions: production, administration, supply, demand. The function that is still largely resisting automation is governance.
This might be somewhat counterintuitive since accounting, a major component of enterprise governance, was one of the earliest adopters of mainframe computing. But the role of automation in accounting is largely restricted to administration, the inward-looking part.
Read 14 tweets
🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Sep 13, 2018
From my own experience: There is no job market for economists* in German tech companies. One of the reason why the German big players missed the move from business processes to business models.
*Economics = VWL
H/t @abhishekn
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Business process" is about optimizing the enterprise as a production function. "Business model" is about optimizing the enterprise as a market participant. Germany as a tech economy is really good at the former, and has created a specialized labor market around it.
Business process is the realm of industrial engineering. Business modeling is the realm of industrial organization, a field that is still almost completely unknown in Germany, more than twenty years into the internet era.
Read 6 tweets
🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Aug 21, 2018
In a B2B context (i.e. "enterprise blockchains" aka "DLT") speed is indeed the main driver for any kind of research into blockchain. The two main areas of research, settlement automation and supply chain traceability, are driven by expected speed advantages over current tech.
Which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone knowledgeable in enterprise systems. These processes are notoriously difficult to implement in an enterprise-centric systems landscape. Settlement takes days, establishing provenance can take weeks.
For industries with a high premium on real-time information (FMCG) or information integrity (pharma, food) "blockchains" are a heaven-sent for a problem that is only becoming more pressing over time.
Read 4 tweets
🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Jul 28, 2018
Hey, we sure like Uncle Bert, but we could do without his political rants on FB. This problem that connectivity clashes with preferences gave rise to websites like Flickr or LastFm where we can match preference and connectivity.
One of the key shortcomings of network theory is that it's still largely a theoretical construct, with weak empirical support. Most of our understanding is anecdotal, which is subject to ex post rationalization (like almost everything else in innovation econ).
Indeed since interaction effects undermine revealed preference, it's very tricky to empirically separate preference from influence in observed group behavior.
Read 14 tweets
🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Jul 28, 2018
Let's talk a bit about what @VitalikButerin called "anti-network effects". TLDR: There is no empirical basis for the notion that network effects inevitably lead to a winner-takes-all outcome. In most cases, such a conclusion is simply a matter of framing.
One of the iffy folk tales in network economics emerged when Brian Arthur didn't get his papers on increasing returns published in 1985/6 and opined that this must be that this must be bc his ideas were too radical and thus rejected by mainstream economists.
That maverick story was repeated in Mitchell Waldrop's 1992 on Complexity and the early days of the Santa Fe Institute, and like many of those truthy-sounding stories it just refuses to die. It's also mostly nonsense.
Read 18 tweets
🅾️𝕝𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕣 🅱️𝕖𝕚𝕘𝕖 Profile picture
Jul 22, 2018
I've seen quite a bit of "fishing for truth" about the interlocking topics of network effects, technology standards, platforms/two-sided markets, and blockchains recently, so it might be worthwhile untangling the lot.
TLDR: There's still a massive amount of confusion reverberating through the field, with sloppy definitions and the penchant to peddle old and largely false folk tales taking the brunt of the blame. Kinda ironic bc "path dependency" is a core concept.
The common impetus for the work in this field is to challenge the underlying assumption of consumer choice theory in standard microeconomics that individuals make choices disconnected from each other and reap utilities disconnected from each other.
Read 36 tweets

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