2/ The title is interesting - it is: "How we will deliver the best Brexit in 2018". Davis's piece does not come close to answering that. The piece would more accurately be entitled "What I think the best Brexit looks like in 2018 (without asking the EU what they'd accept)"
3/ There's a bit of nerdy stuff at the start. I quote: "Donald Tusk has approved an immediate start to initial discussions on the future relationship (...) talks about the implementation period begin early in the New Year" I assume he means "Transition Period"?
4/ It was actually the EU-27 that gave the go ahead, not Tusk, but hell, what's a little technical difference like that to the man leading the most complicated and technical negotiation there has ever been in 🇬🇧-🇪🇺 relations? 🤷♂️
5/ "we will begin a deep and open exploratory dialogue to discover a new, mutually acceptable point of balance in our relationship with the EU" Says something mutual is possible. But the 🇪🇺 view is known. 🇬🇧 to choose from 🇪🇺's menu options it wants. Unilateral alignment?
6/ "the Prime Minister proposed a period of around two years in which Britain leaves the EU but maintains the key rights of the single market and customs union (...) meaning agreement by March is doable." Agreement on how Transition will work by March. 🥧 in 🌄 IMHO.
7/ "Much is said about the lack of certainty about the future relationship (...) Brexit will allow us to take control of our borders, our money and our laws (...) an independent trade policy to strike deals with other countries from around the world." YES. We know that by now.
8/ But those are aims. Remember the title of the article - HOW is the 🇬🇧 to get there? What price is 🇬🇧 willing to pay to get itself there? We still have no idea whatsoever about that.
9/ "the Commission themselves say that the vast majority of future global growth will come from outside Europe, it makes sense for Britain to place itself at the cutting edge of new technologies and the regulatory regimes they will require" None of those will come FROM 🇪🇺?
10/ "The emphasis here must always be on raising standards. There is no route to prosperity in trying to become cheaper than China, or in undermining the safety standards which give confidence to British goods." Working Time rules safe then? 🤷♂️ theconversation.com/tory-attack-on…
11/ "It would therefore be inconsistent to have a situation where we are outside the EU but bound by its every rule and regulation.
12/ (...) Our approach is simple: we are looking at the full sweep of economic cooperation that currently exists and determining how that can be maintained with the minimum additional barriers or friction" Good luck with that!
13/ "Currently a car produced in Europe, for sale in the UK, only has to undergo one series of approvals (...) I see no reason why, with the right relationship, such mutual recognition should not continue after we leave." Ah. But what if it isn't all fine and dandy?
14/ Imagine - say - #LandRoverGate rather than Volkswagen's #DieselGate. How are you going to legally solve that? It's not mentioned by Davis but there's that pesky ECJ on the horizon once more.
15/ "so long as it is understood that this involves working together, not simply rule taking" Oh right. Let's have a land of 🥛 and 🍯.
16/ "Given the strength and breadth of our links, a deal which took in some areas of our economic relationship but not others would be, in the favoured phrase of EU diplomats, cherry picking." Barnier will be 🤣 at that! 🇪🇺 is offering the 🇬🇧 something like CETA.
17/ "I understand when people say that the first responsibility for proposing solutions to the conundrums presented by Brexit lie on the British side." Oh! Thanks for that. In an article full of aims but solving no conundrum.
18/ "But I believe they will be successful, because the future of the Europe continent is best served by strong and successful relationships." Thanks again! *believe* indeed, because faith is what's needed given the enduring lack of proper planning on the 🇬🇧 side! /ends
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Prerequisites for this:
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)
2/8
How do the Tories and Labour approach #Brexit in such a General Election campaign?
One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote
3/8
This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)
1/12
First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea: jonworth.eu/transition-per…
And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend
2/12
Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.
BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.
But let's just say for a minute that, spurred on by national sandwich sentiment post a No Deal Brexit, the UK did want to make itself more self-sustaining in its food production, what could it do?
2/15
First some stats: Defra has useful stats on UK food import dependency here: gov.uk/government/sta…
The first Excel table shows how import dependency for food has been growing (the UK now imports 40% of its food), and the second Excel download lists value by food type.
Most charming & amusing Russian 🇷🇺 experience to date here in Ulan-Ude...
When planning this trip people asked me: do you speak Russian? Answer: no. But I am armed with Yandex Translate. It has a RU-EN offline dictionary, and can speak it all too: itunes.apple.com/us/app/yandex-…
1/7
You can do pretty complex things with Yandex.
But trying to book a bus 🚌 ticket 🎟 online from Irkutsk to Bratsk was a step too far.
Irkutsk = Иркутск
Bratsk = Братск
is easy enough.
Entering names, gender etc., sure.
But nationality?
2/7
What is my nationality?
England = Англия
Great Britain = Великобритания
UK? = Объединенное королевство великой Британии и северной Ирландии
None in the list...
Enter a confused but helpful hotel receptionist.
3/7
Something about this #Seehofer "resignation" does not add up.
A thread.
1/9
Merkel went to Brussels and got a framework for a deal on refugees, the sort of thing that Seehofer was pushing for. A bit thin on the details, but Merkel did not return empty handed.
2/9
The normal CSU reaction to this would have been to have claimed a minor victory, to show how Bavaria's interests were being taken seriously, and move on somewhat.
3/9