Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 3, 2018 18 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ I'm slowly getting back into #Brexit stuff after time off in the last week or so.

I'm starting with David Davis's Telegraph piece from a couple of days ago:…

A quick thread about it.
2/ The title is interesting - it is: "How we will deliver the best Brexit in 2018". Davis's piece does not come close to answering that. The piece would more accurately be entitled "What I think the best Brexit looks like in 2018 (without asking the EU what they'd accept)"
3/ There's a bit of nerdy stuff at the start. I quote: "Donald Tusk has approved an immediate start to initial discussions on the future relationship (...) talks about the implementation period begin early in the New Year" I assume he means "Transition Period"?
4/ It was actually the EU-27 that gave the go ahead, not Tusk, but hell, what's a little technical difference like that to the man leading the most complicated and technical negotiation there has ever been in 🇬🇧-🇪🇺 relations? 🤷‍♂️
5/ "we will begin a deep and open exploratory dialogue to discover a new, mutually acceptable point of balance in our relationship with the EU" Says something mutual is possible. But the 🇪🇺 view is known. 🇬🇧 to choose from 🇪🇺's menu options it wants. Unilateral alignment?
6/ "the Prime Minister proposed a period of around two years in which Britain leaves the EU but maintains the key rights of the single market and customs union (...) meaning agreement by March is doable." Agreement on how Transition will work by March. 🥧 in 🌄 IMHO.
7/ "Much is said about the lack of certainty about the future relationship (...) Brexit will allow us to take control of our borders, our money and our laws (...) an independent trade policy to strike deals with other countries from around the world." YES. We know that by now.
8/ But those are aims. Remember the title of the article - HOW is the 🇬🇧 to get there? What price is 🇬🇧 willing to pay to get itself there? We still have no idea whatsoever about that.
9/ "the Commission themselves say that the vast majority of future global growth will come from outside Europe, it makes sense for Britain to place itself at the cutting edge of new technologies and the regulatory regimes they will require" None of those will come FROM 🇪🇺?
10/ "The emphasis here must always be on raising standards. There is no route to prosperity in trying to become cheaper than China, or in undermining the safety standards which give confidence to British goods." Working Time rules safe then? 🤷‍♂️…
11/ "It would therefore be inconsistent to have a situation where we are outside the EU but bound by its every rule and regulation.
12/ (...) Our approach is simple: we are looking at the full sweep of economic cooperation that currently exists and determining how that can be maintained with the minimum additional barriers or friction" Good luck with that!
13/ "Currently a car produced in Europe, for sale in the UK, only has to undergo one series of approvals (...) I see no reason why, with the right relationship, such mutual recognition should not continue after we leave." Ah. But what if it isn't all fine and dandy?
14/ Imagine - say - #LandRoverGate rather than Volkswagen's #DieselGate. How are you going to legally solve that? It's not mentioned by Davis but there's that pesky ECJ on the horizon once more.
15/ "so long as it is understood that this involves working together, not simply rule taking" Oh right. Let's have a land of 🥛 and 🍯.
16/ "Given the strength and breadth of our links, a deal which took in some areas of our economic relationship but not others would be, in the favoured phrase of EU diplomats, cherry picking." Barnier will be 🤣 at that! 🇪🇺 is offering the 🇬🇧 something like CETA.
17/ "I understand when people say that the first responsibility for proposing solutions to the conundrums presented by Brexit lie on the British side." Oh! Thanks for that. In an article full of aims but solving no conundrum.
18/ "But I believe they will be successful, because the future of the Europe continent is best served by strong and successful relationships." Thanks again! *believe* indeed, because faith is what's needed given the enduring lack of proper planning on the 🇬🇧 side! /ends

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More from @jonworth

Sep 30, 2018
Let’s put to one side the substance here. The EU is not like the Soviet Union. Hunt, I think, is just about smart enough to know this.

But what makes him make such a statement?

The Tory Party considers Hunt a wet. He backs Chequers. He was a Remainer. He says he wants a Brexit Deal.

He can’t out-EU-sceptic Rees-Mogg or Johnson while he’s in Cabinet.

He’s previously said that only Putin would rejoice were there to be a No Deal Brexit…

That’s only slightly less ill judged than his Soviet comments.

Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
Let's do a little thought experiment in light of this tweet from @robfordmancs:

This builds on my earlier thread:

Prerequisites for this:
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)

How do the Tories and Labour approach #Brexit in such a General Election campaign?

One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote

Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
In my most recent blog post I argue that when a political crisis hits in 🇬🇧, 🇪🇺 is going to have to contemplate extending the #Article50 period.

Blog post is here:…

This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)

First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea:…

And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend

Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.

BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.

Read 12 tweets
Aug 7, 2018
This @politicoeurope piece and infographic by @kbolongaro about the #Brexit and the ham and cheese sandwich has been widely retweeted.

Do read the whole piece - don't just rely on the infographic.…

But let's just say for a minute that, spurred on by national sandwich sentiment post a No Deal Brexit, the UK did want to make itself more self-sustaining in its food production, what could it do?

First some stats: Defra has useful stats on UK food import dependency here:…

The first Excel table shows how import dependency for food has been growing (the UK now imports 40% of its food), and the second Excel download lists value by food type.

Read 17 tweets
Jul 18, 2018
Most charming & amusing Russian 🇷🇺 experience to date here in Ulan-Ude...

When planning this trip people asked me: do you speak Russian? Answer: no. But I am armed with Yandex Translate. It has a RU-EN offline dictionary, and can speak it all too:…

You can do pretty complex things with Yandex.

But trying to book a bus 🚌 ticket 🎟 online from Irkutsk to Bratsk was a step too far.

Irkutsk = Иркутск
Bratsk = Братск
is easy enough.

Entering names, gender etc., sure.

But nationality?

What is my nationality?

England = Англия
Great Britain = Великобритания
UK? = Объединенное королевство великой Британии и северной Ирландии

None in the list...

Enter a confused but helpful hotel receptionist.

Read 7 tweets
Jul 1, 2018
Something about this #Seehofer "resignation" does not add up.

A thread.

Merkel went to Brussels and got a framework for a deal on refugees, the sort of thing that Seehofer was pushing for. A bit thin on the details, but Merkel did not return empty handed.

The normal CSU reaction to this would have been to have claimed a minor victory, to show how Bavaria's interests were being taken seriously, and move on somewhat.

Read 10 tweets

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