Tonight on #ElectionTwitter, since NC may re-re-redistrict it's Cong. districts, we're gonna be looking back at the Congressional map that was in place from 2002 to 2010. #ncpol#ncga
Why this map? 1) It was drawn by Dems, and represents something of a best-case for them and 2) I've always liked this map, and usually end up breaking statewide races down under its lines, anyway. #ncpol#ncga
The 2001 Congressional map held up pretty well for Democrats. For example, they went into the red wave of 2010 holding 8 of 13 seats. They lost the House popular vote by 9% in NC, but of their seats, only #NC02 flipped R, and only barely. #ncpol
Under the old Dem-drawn map, HRC would have carried 5/13 seats while losing by 4%. Gov. Roy Cooper, who narrowly won, would have added #NC02 to HRC's map. He ran most over her in the old #NC11, rep'd by Blue Dog Heather Shuler. #ncpol
Now, here's Cooper 2016 vs Obama 2008; both narrow Dem wins. They each carried the same 6/13 CDs. Cooper did better than Obama following I-85 while slumping in rural areas. Asheville made #NC11 slightly more pro-Cooper. #ncpol#ncga
Basically, this was what I found a while ago at the precinct level, too. Democratic strength in NC is becoming more concentrated in the urban areas - generally does not bode well for redistricting. #ncpol#ncga
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As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%. #SCOWIS#wopolitics#ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms.
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936.
Despite the county flipping to Clinton, a quartet of districts there (or at least partially contained within OC) reelected R incumbents to Congress: #CA39, #CA45, #CA48, and #CA49.