This week will be a momentous one on the redistricting front - with action in legal challenges to two of the worst congressional maps of the decade: Pennsylvania & North Carolina. #fairmaps 1/
In PA, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on 1/17 in a challenge seeking to have the state's congressional map invalidated as a partisan gerrymander under state law. #fairmaps 2/ brennancenter.org/legal-work/lea…
Although several other ongoing cases in federal court challenging various maps under federal law, the Pennsylvania case is the first major case to raise a challenge under state constitutional law - which makes it worth watching for several reasons. #fairmaps 3/
The first is that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has the last word - if it rules that the map is unconstitutional, it will be redrawn (assuming the court rules in an expeditious fashion as all indications are that it will). #fairmaps 4/
That could have major implications for the 2018 elections and the battle for control of the U.S House. But the case also is important because it is a challenge under state rather than federal law. #fairmaps 5/
If it is successful, it will point to a possible path for challenging partisan gerrymanders that isn't dependent on SCOTUS - and where, depending on the state, rights actually might be broader than anything SCOTUS is willing to do. #fairmaps 6/
Side note: Although the Pennsylvania case is at the PA Supreme Court, it isn't an appeal. Rather the court is hearing the case in its so-called extraordinary jurisdiction - which means basically de novo review of the Commonwealth Court's recommendations. #fairmaps 7/
Meanwhile, in North Carolina, a three-judge panel last week issued a powerful, and in many ways landmark, opinion striking down that state's 2016 congressional plan. ICYMI, opinion here: brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 8/
The 2016 North Carolina congressional map struck down is the state's second of the decade. The first - drawn in 2011 - was struck down as a racial gerrymander and ordered redrawn. #fairmaps 9/
The NC lege came back and said, fine, we'll just replace that racially gerrymandered map with a partisan gerrymander. No, really, that's literally what they said. #fairmaps 10/
With last week's ruling, the three-judge panel ordered the second map redrawn to undo partisan gerrymandering. But, not surprisingly, GOP lawmakers have asked for a stay from SCOTUS, which has asked for a response by noon on 1/17. #fairmaps 11/
A decision on whether to grant a stay could come any time after that - and almost certainly by the end of the week. #fairmaps 12/
If the court denies the stay, North Carolina will get a new congressional map for 2018 - which combined with the possibility of new congressional map in Pennsylvania - will be *huuuge* politically (to borrow a phrase). #fairmaps 13/
And although ordinarily you would think SCOTUS would grant a stay, the facts of North Carolina are so egregious & blatant - and more importantly seem to fall squarely into a hypo asked by Justice Kennedy that, well, this one will be interesting to watch. #fairmaps 14/
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Partisan gerrymandering returns to SCOTUS today as the North Carolina legislative defendants are due to file their jurisdiction statement asking the Justices to hear the case. We’ll post it here 👇when it is available: brennancenter.org/legal-work/com…#fairmaps#ncpol 1/
The NC legislative defendants are asking SCOTUS to overturn the ruling of a three-judge panel striking down North Carolina’s congressional map as a partisan gerrymander. That ruling here: brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps#ncpol 2/
What ordinarily happens next under the Supreme Court rules is that the plaintiffs have 30 days (until Nov 1) file a motion asking SCOTUS to decide the case without oral argument. The plaintiffs could waive the right to file such a motion, but that’s rare. #fairmaps#ncpol 3/
BREAKING: Federal court rules that plaintiffs in North Carolina partisan gerrymandering case have standing to pursue claims (with one exception) and affirms earlier ruling that congressional map is unconstitutional. brennancenter.org/sites/default/…#fairmaps 1/
Decision is 2-1, with Judge Osteen dissenting. Majority opinion runs to 294 pages. #fairmaps 2/
Court says it has not yet decided whether to give the North Carolina legislature the opportunity to attempt to redraw congressional map, but says that if the NC lege wants to redraw map it needs to finish process by 9/17 at 5 p.m. #fairmaps 3/
So here’s one way to think of the differences over what it would take for Democrats to win a majority in 2018.
Imagine that there is a 10.6 foot wall. Democrats somehow need to get over that wall to get a majority. #fairmaps 1/
Now, one way to do so would be to build a 10.6 foot ladder - or better yet an 11 foot one because a bit of extra is helpful in these things. #fairmaps 2/
But some think, we’ll, maybe you won’t need a 10.6 foot ladder because it’s been raining a lot and I think there are probably going to be some mudslides that push up against the wall. Ds may only need a 7-8 foot ladder. #fairmaps 3/
Democrats could win a majority in the U.S. House this November, but thanks to gerrymandering, doing so would require a near unprecedented win in the national vote. @lauraroyden and I explain in today's NYT: nytimes.com/2018/03/25/opi…#fairmaps 1/
For more detail, here's the study that @lauraroyden, @yurijrudensky, and I wrote looking at the impact of extreme gerrymandering on the 2018 midterm. #fairmaps 2/
We find that to be favored to win back a majority, Democrats would need to win the national vote by nearly 11 points (i.e., 55.5% to 45.5%). That would be a larger margin than either the 2006 D wave or the 2010 R wave. #fairmaps 3/
BREAKING: SCOTUS partially stays new North Carolina legislative maps. Thomas & Alito would have stayed in entirety. Ginsburg & Sotomayor would denied stay in entirety. #ncpol#fairmaps 1/
Stay by SCOTUS is as to special master's revision of state house districts in Wake & Mecklenburg counties. #ncpol#fairmaps 2/
The issue in Wake & Mecklenburg counties was that the NC legislature altered districts that were not found to be racial gerrymanders or that abutted districts that were racial gerrymanders. #ncpol#fairmaps 3/
BREAKING: North Carolina congressional map struck down as partisan gerrymander. #fairmaps
Map struck down was North Carolina’s second congressional map of the decade. First was invalidated as racial gerrymander. Lege redrew but required new map to maintain 10-3 GOP advantage. #fairmaps 2/