Ralph Cerchione Profile picture
Jan 27, 2018 48 tweets 63 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
So Dutch intelligence recorded the entire Russian hack of the US election, & has the hackers & their visitors *on* *video.*

Things just got exciting.
In other words, it’s even more beyond question that Russia hacked the election – we literally have them on camera doing it. We have their faces, & the faces of those directly overseeing them.
.@ABC has done a piece on this revelation, but I thought I’d bring it to the attention of .@CNN .@CBS .@NBCNews .@MSNBC. And I wanted to sum up the other devastating revelations tearing this would-be coup, & its perpetrators, apart.
If you would like further clarification on just how much the Dutch captured re: Russia’s coup, .@ericgarland, for one, would be happy to go into it.
But for now, let’s discuss some of the elements terrifying certain parties in the Kremlin & elsewhere.

Why slow walk all this? One, it’s going very fast. Two, there appear to be a *great* many involved.
Also seeing who does what as the walls are closing in can be very revealing.

Who makes a desperate call to another asset? Who accesses bank accounts or #bitcoin they shouldn't have access to? Who gets threatened w/what kompromat (blackmail)?
Who makes a deal?

And there are so many who have reason to make a deal.
We've never had this much global evidence about this many people in an international investigation this vital to the survival of the US, NATO & global democracy.

The spillover isn't just the intel networks of Russia/others & Russian mafia.
#FARA alone decimates DC foreign influence & corruption, particularly in the context of a huge investigation w/tons of people looking for deliverables. Think DC staffers with nothing to offer the .@FBI beyond a legion of #FARA violators.
#Cryptocurrency decimates global crime, organized or otherwise - a permanent, public, online record of illegal transactions = death for criminal activities of all kinds.
And money launderers, Russian intelligence, terrorists & ordinary criminals have moved into it en masse. The world’s worst method for making nefarious transactions.
For those just catching up, *Every* #Cryptocurrency maintains a *public* log of all transactions in one form or another. Even if you’re a criminal who didn't use them, how many of the people are you tied to who did?
For example, .@NeonaziWallets “An automated feed of bitcoin transactions involving suspected neonazi or altright extremist wallets.”
And these are just tools in the hand of the FBI, Mueller, #FinCEN & #FVEY.
Remember, you cooperate w/a #FinCEN investigation or get cut off from being countersigned by US banks – and cease to be a bank.
Don't forget other details, like any deep-cover spies who had their IDs "re"-issued by authorities to give them a better paper trail.

One #BigData search on whether they ever *had* an ID & they're made.
Transition emails? Flipped witnesses? Everything about media subversion/harassment .@ericgarland documented at length in his report?
Then take a set of interlocking #RICO conspiracies in a coup vs the US, throw in innumerable unrelated #RICOs exposed & link (at least) tens of thousands of criminals & millions of computers via transactions, botnets, etc. #Warrants
And at the end, the odds that the .@FBI/.@NSAGov use tech eagerly provided to decrypt *everything*? (Assuming the tech works out, but that’s the way to bet. It’s a matter of time, just not as *much* time as everyone thought.)
And let's not get into the degree to which the Internet is even more openly a long-term deathtrap for criminals than the #Darknet/#cryptocurrencies.
#Bitcoin et al are an even more blatant trap than any Wile E. Coyote cartoon, yet almost *every* online criminal group went for it.
But think about how many emails & texts are getting seized under warrants or handed over as deliverables by flipped witnesses.

Oh, you deleted those? Really? Such that data forensics actually can't get them off *your* computer?
What about the other guy's computer? The other people cc'ed?

The server logfiles that were there for a year and which the FBI probably started collecting over a year ago? With warrants, you hapless pawn?
I believe the core of this will go down pretty quickly. But people will be flipping for *years.* Criminals and far-flung criminal organizations will be going down for *years.*
The biggest rap about US law-enforcement/counterintel, taking forever to go on offense, is *done.*

Democracies were the one power that care about rights & laws. But now action is not only warranted, it’s all under warrant.
Even some of us who are specifically terrible at all but a few subsets of espionage will turn over unbelievable things to the .@FBI if we have a chance.
See: #cryptocurrencies = criminal suicide, the cascade of DC #FARA deliverables, deep-cover spies en masse, misappropriated copyrights enabling prosecutions going back decades, would you like quantum supercomputing with that?
And those are the hapless civilians (heck, the above is a partial listing from *one* *guy*). The Dutch apparently had the hackers nailed w/streaming video between 1 and 2 1/2 years.
Which brings us back to why the Kremlin and her assets and hapless lackies have rational reason to panic.
When even major Russian companies are evidently incorporated *outside* the country because no one can trust the courts even when favored by the regime, everything is exposed.
And now everyone is after their overseas assets, whether through sanctions like #Magnitsky, harsher sanctions, targeted sanctions or 3rd parties just seizing anything from #bitcoin to businesses/real estate used for money laundering.
The money is gone.

Russia itself has been decimated by their theft.

Only their overseas assets remain. & everyone is after those.
Russia lost over 40% of its GDP from mid-2014 through 2015.

That exceeds the Great Depression in GDP terms.
Russia exports oil, gas & weapons. In mid-2014, 25% of her economy & 50% of her government revenues came from oil/gas.
Now realize we could drop a blanket sanction against US banks countersigning *anything* for Russia – which would shut down their entire economy. & it could be lifted in exchange for intel operatives/leaders.
You have to ask, in exchange for lifting a sanction so dire - the US can effectively cut off *anyone* from the global economy w/the big guns - why *wouldn't* Russia give us 57 guys running the biggest intel disaster in history?
No, not *everyone.* But if anyone dies or disappears on the list provided, we can pick two others to take their place. & if *they* “disappear,” we’ll pick two more to replace them.
Russia appears to be aware of this possibility.
So imagine how the regular asset, troll or media shill feels here in the West. Even the oblivious can feel the walls closing in. The informed realize their intel leadership will probably be teaching counterintel out of US Federal supermax.
The environment has changed, & immense amounts of evidence have been in the right hands for *months.*

If you’re involved, you need to make a deal.
The Russian martial art of Krav Maga apparently involves throwing a multitude of strikes to keep an opponent hurt, upset & off-balance. We’re returning the favor a million-fold.
This can end in many ways, but if you are involved, it only ends badly.

Though if you can make a deal with #Mueller, it will be far less painful than virtually any other outcome.
Normally, I’d end with a humorous riff of some kind.

But let’s just say, in honor of a certain secret message, the flaw is *not* singular, and it is *not* small.
I also thought of ending with Game Theory, but in honor of this investigation “following the dead Russians,” I thought I’d mention Ilya Prigogine.
Complex systems can take in more and more energy and matter and expel entropy until they can take no more, at which point they hit a “bifurcation point.” A moment of truth, if you will.
.@CNN .@ABC .@CBS .@NBCNews .@MSNBC At that moment systems fly apart, either into self-destruction or to reassemble into a higher order capable of handling its new demands.
.@CNN .@ABC .@CBS .@NBCNews .@MSNBC The world is moving to a higher order to deal with all of this. And the truth is unstoppable.
.@CNN .@ABC .@CBS .@NBCNews .@MSNBC "The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end... There it is." - Winston Churchill
Oh, and for your further edification: Game Theory.

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More from @Dry_Observer

Sep 23, 2018
@ericgarland Only the beginning, Eric.


I considered the flaw in cryptocurrency enabling the mass tracking/takedown of organized crime/Russian intel a modest side project for more than one reason. As we proceed, *why* will become more apparent.
@ericgarland So, SS7 protocols represent a massive flaw in cell-phone security.

Likely useful for years, but less so as it becomes public knowledge.

But sources & methods you *can* safely declassify?
cc: @LouiseMensch @ninaandtito @thespybrief @911CORLEBRA777
@ericgarland @LouiseMensch @ninaandtito @thespybrief @911CORLEBRA777 What if a staggering source of hard evidence in the Russian coup came from a technical weakness of rapidly diminishing utility, & which urgently needed to be closed anyway?
Read 16 tweets
Sep 15, 2018
@ericgarland @911CORLEBRA777 @JamesFourM @thespybrief @patribotics @LouiseMensch @ninaandtito @DirkSchwenk @xtrixcyclex @colinkalmbacher @claytonpurdom @emzanotti @RoyBlunt @FBIWFO @NewYorkFBI @FBILosAngeles @INTERPOL_HQ @DHSgov It's hard to overstate how important a cooperating Manafort becomes to unraveling media subversion.

But let's start with Eric's documentation of media-influence operations & go from there.
@ericgarland @911CORLEBRA777 @JamesFourM @thespybrief @patribotics @LouiseMensch @ninaandtito @DirkSchwenk @xtrixcyclex @colinkalmbacher @claytonpurdom @emzanotti @RoyBlunt @FBIWFO @NewYorkFBI @FBILosAngeles @INTERPOL_HQ @DHSgov First, remember @ericgarland initially just released the public, executive summary of his research into *one* aspect of this - a consistent pattern of harassment in response to his original Game Theory thread.
@ericgarland @911CORLEBRA777 @JamesFourM @thespybrief @patribotics @LouiseMensch @ninaandtito @DirkSchwenk @xtrixcyclex @colinkalmbacher @claytonpurdom @emzanotti @RoyBlunt @FBIWFO @NewYorkFBI @FBILosAngeles @INTERPOL_HQ @DHSgov There are so many critical details to go over here.

One, the patterns were easily detected, & hard evidence could be found in abundance.

Two, Eric *didn't* stop with documenting & researching just that one piece.
Read 55 tweets
Sep 6, 2018
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ @LincolnsBible @USTreasury @BarackObama @NATO @DARPA @JohnBrennan @GenMhayden @CIA @TheJusticeDept @gametheorytoday @DEAHQ So, to list of other things .@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ .@USTreasury could use in a #BigData search to pull any remaining deep-cover spies:

Yes, as I've noted before, you can pull all the "re-issued" credentials, then check for any preceding ID.

But that's just a start.
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ @LincolnsBible @USTreasury @BarackObama @NATO @DARPA @JohnBrennan @GenMhayden @CIA @TheJusticeDept @gametheorytoday @DEAHQ That's an obvious thing .@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ .@USTreasury could do, given the supposed tendency of deep-cover operatives to request "re-issuing" of a "lost" ID that never existed in the first place.
Read 173 tweets
Aug 21, 2018
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ @LincolnsBible @USTreasury @BarackObama @NATO @DARPA Again, there was a warning about more evidence being released in tandem with egregious attacks on Kremlin's critics.

Given the targeting of Brennan, we’ve hit another tipping point.
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ .@USTreasury
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ @LincolnsBible @USTreasury @BarackObama @NATO @DARPA I was planning to drop more evidence sources, but I don't think everyone yet realizes the security-clearance fiasco is a giant evidence-reaping machine *in* *itself.*
@JohnBrennan @GenMhayden
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ .@USTreasury
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ @LincolnsBible @USTreasury @BarackObama @NATO @DARPA @JohnBrennan @GenMhayden As discussed previously in this thread, we have no shortage of people who direly need to proffer *something,* in the face of an investigation that needs neither their testimony nor their evidence.
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ .@USTreasury
Read 227 tweets
Aug 4, 2018
@ericgarland @20committee So, .@ericgarland gets a new kind of botnet targeting, & .@JamesFourM runs into issues w/his article on @Medium?

There was a warning about harassment & the countering release of evidence on the conspiracy.
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ The warning: Any egregious harassment of Kremlin critics could release or expedite yet *another* major evidence source against the conspiracy.

While unpleasant, I think these two each warrant something modest… yet formidable.

& apropos.
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ
@ericgarland @20committee @JamesFourM @Medium @FBI @NSAGov @DHSgov @GCHQ So, Eric you brought up the agencies rating investments recently, as well as AIG, stock markets, etc.

What, you might ask, is so deadly about global finance & the conspiracy? Beyond the obvious flows of money & influence?
.@FBI .@NSAGov .@DHSgov .@GCHQ
Read 322 tweets
Jul 28, 2018
@TheRickWilson @LouiseMensch Oops.

For everyone seeking a deal w/law enforcement, there is one *small* detail we may have glossed over for all parties.

Asset forfeiture. To the government, and... to civil suits.
cc: @thespybrief @ericgarland @TrueFactsStated
@TheRickWilson @LouiseMensch @thespybrief @ericgarland @TrueFactsStated And if you're thinking you'll fight - *great!*

A #RICO conviction proving guilt up front?

Involving treason, organized crime, media collusion, child trafficking, etc?

*&* you harassed or threatened people's kids? *Not* just the adult ones?
@TheRickWilson @LouiseMensch @thespybrief @ericgarland @TrueFactsStated I'm sure jury pools drawn from DC, New York, London, etc will be sympathetic.

But do remember a couple of *other* trivial details.

One, the Democratic Party already filed such a suit, and named Russian intelligence as a defendant.
Read 11 tweets

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