Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Jan 31, 2018 15 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Some notes from @whatukthinks speech at #BrexitPolling, despite his summary containing most of it: bit.ly/2DP69f5
Ppl a bit more economically pessimistic than post #EUref and some more concern, but not huge shifts
However, bigger shifts on quality of final deal, esp post #GE17, w falls in confidence
At same time, it is driven more by Leavers becoming more critical, than by Remainers
Novel data on how well EU is handling negots: UK voters are also increasingly critical. Faults seen on both sides of table
asking #EUref Q (or variants) again, still roughly 50:50, albeit w a bit of shift towards Remain
Lots of 'maybes' and 'perhaps' about a different outcome in a second #EUref: but remember most polls had Remain winning last time...
Most notable mvt is those who abstained last time now more inclined to now Remain, but churn all round
Turnout likely to be key issue in any 2nd #EUref, so impossible to call result
A degree of more politicisation, with a bit more CON-LAB split, but causes no clear: sorting, or changing minds?
Not much evidence for growing support for 2nd #EUref. Much hangs on wording
Many different types of #EUref2:
- deal/no-deal
- deal/stop A50
- deal/re-negotiate
- pure re-run of #EURef

All seen differently
References @LordAshcroft polling on #EUref2 variants: splits vary, w most support for deal/no-deal (across remain-leave groups)
Polling companies asking very different Qs on #EUref2, so treat w caution
So:
- voters are critical of everyone
- ltd evidence of swing to Remain
- inconsist evid on #EURef2
- UK still divided on Brexit

/end

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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