One way to analyse #Budget2018 is to not look at in isolation but as a stunningly well planned sequencing of moves, beginning from 2014 budget and culminating in this, the 5th and last full budget of Modi Government. #NewIndiaBudget 1/10
This sequencing, in respect of moves through budget, can be broadly classified into what has been done on the following fronts A) Aspirational Class ; B) Farmers; C) Women; D) Youth; E) Jobs and F) Overall macro economy. #NewIndiaBudget 2/10
A) Aspirational Class: Ensure every family has bank account---->Direct Transfer of Benefits & Subsidies--->Basic life & accidental insurance--->Enable Formal credit without collateral---->Raise standard of living---->Ensure Medical Insurance for whole family. #NewIndiaBudget 3/10
B) Farmers: Fertilizer availability ensured---->soil health improvement---->integrate all mandis into one national market---->Irrigation reach till the last mile----> Farm Insurance to cover any loss ---->Raise farm income to 1.5 times. #NewIndiaBudget 4/10
C) Women: Secure financial future of every girl child---->smoke-free life of dignity for every woman---->incentivise women to stand up as entrepreneurs through collateral free loans---->incentivise employment of women in formal sector through EPF reform. 5/10 #NewIndiaBudget
D) Youth: Expand IITs, IIMs, Medical colleges, NITs---->Skill India ---->Expanded scholarships ambit and accessible for all ---->ATAL Innovation Mission for spurring the innovation culture---->Launch of RUSE---->1000 PM research fellow for high end research. #NewIndiaBudget 6/10
E) Jobs: Mudra to fund every job-givers dream (10 crore+ already funded)--->Make In India (electronics manufacturing just one of many success story)--->GST push formal employment--->5% tax benefit for MSMEs (99% of Indian companies)--->Govt bears EPF expense. #NewIndiaBudget 7/10
F) Macro economy: India No. 01 FDI destination in world---->low inflation---->control fiscal deficit---->GDP growth among highest in world---->ease of Doing Business--->less cash economy--->GST--->High exports---->High growth--->More formal jobs. #NewIndiaBudget 8/10
If we really think through then it is plainly obvious that despite all the noise and drama the Modi govt had a very detailed plan chalked out in 2014 and absolutely nothing made it change course.Result: India from Fragile Five in 2013 to Bright Spot in 2018. #NewIndiaBudget 9/10
As we asses 2018 budget in historical context, remember that it will be this budget that will be remembered for mainstreaming the concept of "Ease of Living' as a goal for governments. A concept not borrowed from abroad but, at this level, invented in India. #NewIndiaBudget 10/10
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The #AadhaarVerdict is actually symptomatic of the principal battle being waged between the new BJP led by Modi and the old, corrupt establishment of Congress and its cronies. Congress and its ecosystem of compromised 'activists' tried all tricks to derail Aadhaar but failed. 1/5
If we wean away the various cloaks worn by activists, propped up by Congress, the reason for their vicious anti-Aadhar stand becomes clear. Aadhaar stops the gravy train of loot that greased the ecosystem from top to bottom, benefiting cronies at each level. 2/5 #AadhaarVerdict
Here is an example of the loot that would have gone on unchecked in absence of Aadhaar. And who benefited from the loot of this staggering amount? Middlemen who nurtured for decades by Congress at each level - from 10 Janpath durbar to a village panchayat. #AadhaarVerdict 3/5
One debate about Modi government is that what has it done for the #MiddleClass? While people do realize that faster highway construction or better/cheaper air connectivity also indirectly benefits the middle class,yet the question is more about direct, quantifiable benefits. 1/10
Here is one example of a direct, quantifiable benefit for the middle class.Savings in the form of reduced income tax liability for a person earning Rs. 5 lakhs and for a person earning Rs. 10 lakhs (it would proportionally apply to those earning higher as well). Significant. 2/10
But is a savings of approx. Rs. 3,000/month in IT savings is sufficient? What else has been done? Well, you might have bought a home and are paying EMIs on that. Will a significant lower EMI burden count as saving? It should. And it really is significant. A sample of savings.3/10
RBI has come with an excellent paper on the benefits of #Demonetisation - with undeniable facts and data and not rhetoric that has been offered by newly minted economists or stale shayari from the Congress stable. Consider some facts in next few tweets.1/10
Currency in circulation (CIC): CIC was down by 8% Y-o-Y as against 17.2% rise in previous year. So as of 27th Oct 2017, CIC was around 91% of pre-demonetization levels and actually 81% if same growth rate had continued in absence of demonetization. 2/10
Currency in circulation as proportion of broad money (M3) fell to 12.3% on 13th Oct 2017 as compared to 14.4% on 11th Nov 2016. The conclusions in RBI paper are thus significant. 3/10