I’ll raise specific points of disagreement with Strassel in this thread ... 1/
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2. Strassel: “it confirms the Nunes memo and blows up the Schiff talking points”
FALSE: it undercuts #NunesMemo on 2 main claims: whether the FISA application relied on news story for corroboration and whether DOJ told court about political origins of Steele’ dossier.
I wrote:
3. Strassel: #GrassleyMemo “is confirmation that the FBI's FISA application relied on the dossier and a news article”
FALSE: In addition to what I wrote in #2 on the news article, top expert David Kris explains Nunes memo highly implausible on this issue:
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4. I also highly recommend @charlie_savage’s annotation of the #NunesMemo which includes quotes from David Kris about the more likely use of the Isikoff news report in the FISA application:
5. In case Strassel is suggesting the FISA application for Carter Page depended on the Steele dossier, please read my @just_security article. (Spoiler alert: not even Trey Gowdy appears to agree with Strassel on this.)
6. Strassel: #GrassleyMemo “is proof that the FBI did not tell the Court the extraordinarily partisan provenance of the dossier.”
FALSE: The opposite is true (see the excerpt in #2). Excerpted again here for ease of reference.
7. Strassel: “It provides evidence that the FBI presented the FISA Court with materially false evidence, in the claim that Steele had not talked to the press”
FALSE: more tangential than material under the law
+Why not say FBI 'intentionally' misled? Because lack evidence it was
8. Strassel: “It provides evidence that Steele was getting information from the Clinton team itself! Via the State Department!”
On contrary, this is one of most misleading parts of #Grassleymemo and suggests bad faith on the part of its drafters.
Why? Excerpt from my article:
9. Plus want a more fair and balanced understanding of Steele’s providing the Shearer dossier to the FBI?
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10. Finally, a fair and balanced look at the Grassley letter would address ways in which it does actually raise other criticisms of the FISA application. That’s what I try to do in my @just_security article, which was motivated by thoughtful threads by @normative last night
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1. My <thread>
WSJ SCOOP on Peter Smith's 2016 operation to get Clinton emails
● WSJ raises specter Smith was killed, not suicide
● Emails involve payments to “Russian students”
● 4+ financiers
● Mueller expanding interest in Smith group
● potential ties to Flynn/Trump
...
2. First, recall multiple reports that Peter Smith’s operation was potentially linked to Flynn/Trump campaign.
Ex-British security officer GCHQ Matt Tait (@pwnallthethings), who was approached by Smith, assessed Smith's "group was formed with the blessing of the Trump campaign."
3. Smith himself told @shaneharris—who broke the original story—of line of communication with Flynn, and Smith's emails “show that his small group considered Mr. Flynn and his consulting company…to be allies in their quest" for Clinton emails
<thread> Did Kavanaugh commit perjury telling the Senate Judiciary Committee and Committee staff that first time he heard of Ramirez allegations was in Sept. 23 New Yorker article?
Here's some evidence for (incriminating) and against (exculpatory) a claim of perjury...1/
Incriminating: This exchange with Sen. Hatch during Senate testimony on Thursday, Sept. 27:
HATCH: "When did you first hear of Ms. Ramirez’s allegations against you?"
KAVANAUGH: "In the last — in the period since then, the New Yorker story." 2/
Incriminating: In Sept. 25, 2018 interview with Senate Judiciary staff, Kavanaugh even more explicitly and more clearly denied knowing about the Ramirez allegation "before the New Yorker article publication on September 23rd." 3/
Kavanaugh vs. Yale college friends, classmates (from both parties)
Excessive drinking, including to point of not recalling events?
"Kavanaugh portrayed himself in his testimony as enjoying a beer or two...but not as someone who often drank to excess during those years." 1/
“Nearly a DOZEN people who knew him well or socialized with him said Judge Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker in college. Dr. Swisher said she saw him 'very drunk' a number of times...freshmen year roommate, described his stumbling in at all hours of the night.” (NYT) 2/
Dr Swisher: “Brett was a sloppy drunk, and I know because I drank with him. I watched him drink more than a lot of people. He’d end up slurring his words, stumbling.” "It’s not credible for him to say that he has had no memory lapses in the nights that he drank to excess” WaPo 3/
1. Kavanaugh: In H.S., I was focused on studying and sports and did and saw nothing outrageous in H.S. parties
Not asked: How do you then explain the apparently grotesque sexual (and alcohol) references in your Yearbook?
<thread>...
2. Kavanaugh: My Yale roommate James Roche (who said "believable" Kav engaged in Ramirez sexual assault) does not corroborate the incident.
Not asked: What about other Yale student told of incident at the time and says “one-hundred-per-cent sure” Kavanaugh named as perpetrator?
3. Kavanaugh: I hung out with wholesome and decent friends in HS
Not asked: What about your reportedly close friendship with the misogynist Mark Judge (whose own girlfriend of three years says he admits to engaging in a sexual assault)?
<thread> on Dr Ford longtime friend's (Leland Keyser) statement to Senate:
1 discredits Grassley saying this "directly contradict(s)" Ford
2 undermines Kavanaugh defense of mistaken identity
3 unsurprising she doesn't recall party
4 adds to Ford’s credibility to have named her…
I’ll begin by saying opponents of Kavanaugh should not try to rationalize away Keyser’s statements.
I may not agree with the exact way he phrased/framed it, but @saletan is making these points:
3. I always recall the NYT piece—with major scoop of leaked McFarland emails—included this tantalizing nugget of a planned meeting with President-elect Trump later that same day. Raising Q of what Trump knew
4. All this lying to FBI by Trump team raises BIG question whether it was coordinated, which could seriously implicate Trump in actions that even @AlanDersh thinks is a crime for a President to commit.
5. Coordinated lying to FBI could implicate Priebus, McGahn.
Priebus, McGahn create 6-page memo which close observers know is FALSE. Memo is fiction saying Flynn lied to Trump team about Russia call. (Priebus himself was told of Rus sanction call in Dec '16 per McFarland email.)