Jon Worth Profile picture
Mar 1, 2018 15 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ There was a time last summer when it looked like the UK Government was taking #Brexit half seriously. They published a slew of papers. OK, much of what was in them was vague, but something was happening. There was effort 💪
2/ Since then everything has slowed... yet the ⏰ now ticks towards the half way point in the #Article50 process. 🤷‍♂️
3/ I tried to sum this up in a blog post yesterday I entitled "Brexit: the UK Government is not even trying"… But while it is OK to analyse a problem, I struggle to see what to do about it, short term.
4/ Also how does 🇪🇺 negotiate with a Government that does not want to do anything?
5/ What can break the UK Government out of its 😴 🛌?
6/ If I were in UK Government right now I would be scared. Really, genuinely, totally pooing my pants scared. 🙀 But Ministers are not. They sail blithely onwards.
7/ How will transition work? NO IDEA.
8/ What about Customs and recruiting the necessary Customs officers? 👮‍♀️ Or contingency plans for Dover. 🚢 NO IDEA.
9/ What about passporting and the City of London? 💷 NO IDEA.
10/ What about the problem that the UK already has the lowest growth in the OECD, and yet Brexit has not happened? NO IDEA.
11/ What about nuclear isotopes and Euratom? Or food standards? 🍔 Or medicine approvals? 💉 NO IDEA.
12/ What about 759 international agreements with the rest of the world that need to be solved somehow even before a transition period? ✈️ NO IDEA.
13/ What about a border in Ireland 🇮🇪 that could re-inflame tensions. WORST OF ALL: STILL NO IDEA.
14/ This is not about Leave or Remain. This is about *how* to do Brexit. To do it in a way that minimises the damage to real people's lives. That provides certainty where there is currently worry. That reassures rather than grandstands.
15/ Whatever you think of its merits, Brexit is serious. It is complex. It requires the UK Government's utmost care, determination and attention. And it is not getting it. That is making ME scared. 🙀

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More from @jonworth

Sep 30, 2018
Let’s put to one side the substance here. The EU is not like the Soviet Union. Hunt, I think, is just about smart enough to know this.

But what makes him make such a statement?

The Tory Party considers Hunt a wet. He backs Chequers. He was a Remainer. He says he wants a Brexit Deal.

He can’t out-EU-sceptic Rees-Mogg or Johnson while he’s in Cabinet.

He’s previously said that only Putin would rejoice were there to be a No Deal Brexit…

That’s only slightly less ill judged than his Soviet comments.

Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
Let's do a little thought experiment in light of this tweet from @robfordmancs:

This builds on my earlier thread:

Prerequisites for this:
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)

How do the Tories and Labour approach #Brexit in such a General Election campaign?

One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote

Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
In my most recent blog post I argue that when a political crisis hits in 🇬🇧, 🇪🇺 is going to have to contemplate extending the #Article50 period.

Blog post is here:…

This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)

First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea:…

And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend

Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.

BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.

Read 12 tweets
Aug 7, 2018
This @politicoeurope piece and infographic by @kbolongaro about the #Brexit and the ham and cheese sandwich has been widely retweeted.

Do read the whole piece - don't just rely on the infographic.…

But let's just say for a minute that, spurred on by national sandwich sentiment post a No Deal Brexit, the UK did want to make itself more self-sustaining in its food production, what could it do?

First some stats: Defra has useful stats on UK food import dependency here:…

The first Excel table shows how import dependency for food has been growing (the UK now imports 40% of its food), and the second Excel download lists value by food type.

Read 17 tweets
Jul 18, 2018
Most charming & amusing Russian 🇷🇺 experience to date here in Ulan-Ude...

When planning this trip people asked me: do you speak Russian? Answer: no. But I am armed with Yandex Translate. It has a RU-EN offline dictionary, and can speak it all too:…

You can do pretty complex things with Yandex.

But trying to book a bus 🚌 ticket 🎟 online from Irkutsk to Bratsk was a step too far.

Irkutsk = Иркутск
Bratsk = Братск
is easy enough.

Entering names, gender etc., sure.

But nationality?

What is my nationality?

England = Англия
Great Britain = Великобритания
UK? = Объединенное королевство великой Британии и северной Ирландии

None in the list...

Enter a confused but helpful hotel receptionist.

Read 7 tweets
Jul 1, 2018
Something about this #Seehofer "resignation" does not add up.

A thread.

Merkel went to Brussels and got a framework for a deal on refugees, the sort of thing that Seehofer was pushing for. A bit thin on the details, but Merkel did not return empty handed.

The normal CSU reaction to this would have been to have claimed a minor victory, to show how Bavaria's interests were being taken seriously, and move on somewhat.

Read 10 tweets

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