Circumstance meant I didn't get to indulge in the tweet-fest y'day afternoon, so I'm making a virtue of that and reflect on the impression w a bit more distance
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Run-up: this differed from Lancaster Hse or Florence in that there was less run-up (in time), but lots more associated activity.
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This meant lots of speeches from Cab Mins, after Cabinet discussion. Before, May has worked w v.sml circle, so this opening up is notable
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Reflects how things have moved on in Art.50 negots, in May's authority, and in need to keep ppl involved
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Timing: still think the timing stinks. Yes, it's before March #EUCO, so imp to set out a view, but letting everyone else get their view in wasn't helpful
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Even the @Sime0nStylites view - that going last in this round means she can mop up the bits - didn't really happen: didn't read anything in text that cldn't have been said a month ago
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7/
Location: in passing, I'll note that this was speech most directed to EU, so ironic to do it in UK, when Florence was so UK-focused. Makes me think fancy locations shld be saved for exceedingly obvious situations
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8/
Content: this is the big one. And for once, there was content to consider
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As several have noted, in content terms, this shld have been made a year or more ago. Mapping out basic compromises and indicating areas of activity wld have informed agenda
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However, still a lot of waffle. Of the five tests, the only one w any meaning is the first and even that only to extent that UK shld leave the EU (not on what terms)
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11/
Tests are a popular trope, because pretty much any outcome can be fitted to them, so politicians can tick off a big box at the end. But they offer no help during the process
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However, on substance, we're seeing a bit of a collapse of red lines into a more coherent whole.
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Key one is still ECJ, but there's now recognition (and communication) that to be part of any part of EU activity means exposure to ECJ
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Of course, calls for sectoral work has fingerprints of Cab colleagues adding stuff in, ironically helping May to advance the soft Brexit agenda she seems to want
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And for me, that's the big message: reading speech cold, the position is to make as close as possible
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This has been an emergent thread of recent weeks: the potential to diverge, rather than actual divergence
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Might be that No.10 think this is way to square circle of leaving without too much disruption
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But as with much clever-clever thinking it ignores the elephant in the room: the EU
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As several of you have already replied to comment, it's all well & good May saying what she wants, but Art.50 is also (indeed, more) about want EU wants
20/
20/
Reaction so far has been polite, rather than enthused. It's nice to have some detail, but it's still a long way from enough
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Particular points of concern exist:
- Ireland was only briefly mentioned, w no substantive ideas and language that wasn't as robust as before. For a gvt trying to avoid Option C, that's odd
22/
- Ireland was only briefly mentioned, w no substantive ideas and language that wasn't as robust as before. For a gvt trying to avoid Option C, that's odd
22/
- role of ECJ remains v.confused. The impression is of a UK Gvt caught in a big semantic trap and looking for some fig-leaf mechanism (to which EU will respond: why bother w a fig-leaf?)
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- the 3 baskets thing still doesn't fly. EU cld help on this by saying that it means lots of interlocked blocks of legislation (stop 1 bit of FoM means losing the whole thing), but frankly it runs so counter to structure of EU work that, again, why go down that road?
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Remember that EU is currently finalising Phase 2 mandate for #EUCO. EU27 also haven't got far in their thinking on final state, so upshot might be to be vague
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And this is final point. End-state is a bit of a distraction
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For Art.50 purposes, key priority is transition: get to March 19 w a deal and a framework in which end-state negotiations can run while things tick over
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HMG is very much not kicking the sleeping dog of transition (nor are EU27), as getting that tied down in March #EUCO is vital task
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No.10 might well be happy to take heat on end-state if it allows getting to transition deal. There's less time pressure there
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So, to pull it all together.
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30/
#RoadToBrexit was at lower end of what it cld have contained, but generally a step towards a more mature negotiating position by UK. Proof will be in whether it carries over to mvt w EU for March #EUCO
/end
/end
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