Antonello Guerrera Profile picture
Mar 4, 2018 38 tweets 14 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Hello all, I will shortly start a live-tweeting on #ItalyElection2018 night. I will try to keep you posted with all the latest news, exit polls, vote projections until late (tomorrow morning shift, ouch)🇮🇹
Meanwhile, here you can find a guide to the vote
1. Turnout at 7 pm estimated at 57%. Not so much for #Italy standards. Not a good news for Renzi, in theory.
2. The Constitutional referendum turnout at 7 pm had a similar trend. Then (in 2016) the final turnout was 68,48%. If it stays so also today, it would be the lowest turnout in Italy republican history
In fact, it was 75% in 2013, 81% in 2008, 84% in 2006
3. Meanwhile, this is probably gonna be the protest against Berlusconi most appreciated by Berlusconi himself.
4. Final turnout estimated at 67-71%. Would be likely the lowest one in Italy's republican history. In theory not a good news for Renzi and a good one for populist parties
5. Meanwhile, fake news are proliferating online. Here one which falsely reports "found 500k electoral ballots with votes for PD (Renzi's democratic party). Already 9k sharings on Facebook. Wake up @facebook
6. Tic toc tic toc... just 27 minutes to go
7. Seven minutes to the first OFFICIAL exit poll
LEGA 13-16%
5 STARS 29-32%
PD 20,5-23,5%
LEU (left) 3-5%
9. (this was a RAI exit poll for the Senate. Camera exit poll very similar, according to RAI)

CENTRE-RIGHT 33,5-36,5
M5S 29-32

M5S 29,5-32,5%
CENTRE-LEFT 24,5-27,5%
1) Please don't take these exit polls for granted. Five years ago they got it wrong even by 6-7 points
2) Exit polls don't take in consideration first-past-the-post seats (1/3 of the total)
13. It is to early to give facts now just with such exit polls. But we can say a few things:
- FIVE STAR 1st party? Kinda sure
- CENTRE-RIGHT 1st bloc? Very likely
- PD PERFORMANCE? Likely poor
- ITALY SPLIT IN 3 BLOCKS? Looks like that
14. Populist and eurosceptic parties around 50 per cent in Italy right now. Quite alarming for Europe
16. Is Italy going to shake Europe again? LEGA + M5S + Italy Brotherhood around 50%. More than half Italians MIGHT have voted for populist and eurosceptic parties, according to exit polls. Put your helmet on, in case of
17. If exit polls are confirmed, it is extremely likely that even a Grand Coalition between Renzi's PD and Berlusconi will be very hard to build up. PD too weak and Berlusconi looks weaker than coalition partner LEGA
18. If exit polls are confirmed, Italy comes up as a very divided country: split in three political blocks. And also: it lookes like North of the country mainly for centre-right, centre slightly for PD, South massively for Five Star M5S
19. And also, if exit polls are right, the easiest govern to form might be one with Five Star and LEGA allied. That would be the most populist and the most eurosceptic govern of Italy EVER
20. Just phantasizing, but: is a coalition between M5S and LEGA possible? M5S has always excluded any alliance. But this time can be different. This time they have a chance to govern. And LEGA may externally support their executive
21. EXIT POLL SEATS LOW CHAMBER (tecne mediaset)
CENTRE-LEFT: 113-163 seats
M5S: 196-246
LEU (left): 16-22
TIE: 39
22. If exit polls are right, the populist front has the biggest chance ever to govern a country. Such a country: Italy.
23. Meanwhile, turnout is now expected to reach 74%, more than earlier predictions. Maybe still the lowest one in Italy republican history but this can change a few things, giving some relief to PD and Berlusconi. We'll see
24. BREAKING. FIRST VOTE PROJECTION (based on 12% votes)
M5S 33,1%
LEGA 17,3%
PD 18,7%.
If this trend will be confirmed, this is the end of Italy as we knew it
25. If this 1st projection is true, this would be an astonishing game changer in Italy (and Europe):
- Populist front ABOVE 50%
- DISASTER for traditional parties: Renzi + Berlusconi around 30%
- DISASTER for centre-left
- RENZI likely to resign if PD under 20%
Don't forget that all those percentages are related to seats on a proportional basis (2/3 of the total). The remaining seats (1/3 of the total) are chosen by first-past-the-post contests
27. Some days ago I tried to explain why Renzi was likely going to suffer a massive defeat in #ItalyElection2018. Here you can find why: anatomy of a former wonder boy
28. One of M5S leaders, Di Battista, is already talking of a likely "triumph". Then he adds delighted with a grin: "For the 1st time other parties will have to come to talk with us. It's the 1st time. And we'll set the rules"
29. PD and centre-right representatives are already saying that a coalition with M5S is out of question. Centre-right ones are also confident that LEGA will not abandon their coalition. I am skeptical about this. LEGA can might be tempted, IMHO
30. PROJECTION SENATE (RAI, 7% of votes)
M5S 31,8%
PD 19,6%
LEGA 15,9%
FDI (right) 4,4%
LEU 3,5%
M5S 33.6%
PD 18.3%
LEGA 17.4%
FDI (right) 4%
LEU 3.3%
32. If this trend is confirmed, here are some scenarios are:
- M5S minority government with LEGA support (but M5S and LEGA might not have a majority at the Senate)
- new elections (very likely)
- Pd and Berlusconi look too weak to form a "grand coalition"
33. Another interesting point: if ever centre-right succeeds to get a Parliament majority and form a government, TAJANI (endorsed by Berlusconi) is out. According to coalition rules, SALVINI is going to be PM,cause LEGA is expected to be the 1st coalition party
34. LEGA vicesecretary Giorgetti: "First we will talk with our coalition allies, we know what to do". Note: he says "first". And after? Five stars? Simply doesn't rule it out, like Salvini in the past sometimes. Anyway, we'll see. No speculations.

M5S 32.5%
PD 19%
LEGA 15.8%
FDI (right) 4.1%

36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018
- M5S 1st party
- Centre-right 1st coalition
- Italy split in 3
- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes
- Renzi's PD collapsing
- Perfect hung parliament looming
37. Another aspect that might make M5S success even bigger: all previous projections were mainly based on Senate, elected by Italian citizens aged 25 or older. For Chamber of deputies is 18 or older. Majority of the young vote for M5S in Italy. So, make 2+2...

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More from @antoguerrera

Jul 30, 2018
Daisy Osakue, a young talented Italian athlete, (👇🏻) was the case today in #Italy. There is a long recent list of allegedly racially-motivated attacks. Was Daisy attacked because she is black? Is #Italy racist? Or is #Italy becoming more racist, given the new government? THREAD
First of all, I must say that I will try to handle this thorny subject as much sensitive and deep as possible, trying to avoid easy and superficial simplifications, despite it is not simple given the Twitter shortness. But I will try to do my best.
1. There is a very common saying in #Italy: “Italiani brava gente”, which means “Italians are good people”. This motto spread easily after the Second World War. It was mainly a way for Italians to subtly distance themselves from the German Nazis, former allies. But is this true?
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How #Italy has plunged into the maybe worst political crisis of its recent history and why this man below, one of the most xenophobic & eurosceptic leaders, Matteo Salvini, is the real winner so far and might become the game changer of Italian politics in the future. THREAD 🇮🇹
1. Let's start from the second point. Why a far right leader like Salvini, who distinguished himself in the past for his rash and violent attacks against migrants and Europe, is supposed to gain more votes and getting more and more decisive in the next months? Let's see.
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May 14, 2018
Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹
1. As I have been personally saying since the first election results (see here ) and despite a broad general skepticism on it in #Italy, a LEGA-M5S government was the only possible, given the circumstances after the vote. So, now we are very close to it.
2. Five Stars Movement (M5S) leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini have been negotiating for days on a coalition contract (like in Germany). There have reportedly agreed on many points (we'll see later). But the big hurdle is: who is going to be the new Prime Minister?
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Apr 5, 2018
What is going on in #Italy after March 4th elections and the subsequent political deadlock? A quick and concise update on the thrilling party negatiotions/talks that officially started yesterday. Thread coming up shortly. 🇮🇹
1. Here I am (sorry I had to get some food at the 24h supermarket 😊). Well, the deadlock stays but there are some very interesting news that, at least, keep new elections at bay for now. And, beside the M5S-LEGA populist liaison, there is a new potential alliance at sight
2. But let’s go through it. The first thing is that M5S populist and young leader Di Maio has explicitly opened to an alliance either with right-wing LEGA or with centre-left PD (Renzi’s party). “Let’s make a coalition pact like in Germany” Di Maio said.
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Yesterday a big anti-terrorism operation took place in #Italy. Several suspect terrorists allegedly linked to ISIS have been detained or are wanted. They’re connected to Anis Amri, the perpetrator of 2016 Berlin terrorist attack, were allegedly planning to attack Italy 👉🏻THREAD
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2. This time something was different though. Halili seemed to have upgraded his terrorist linked activity: in fact he allegedly turned into a jihadist recruiter, according to prosecutors, “raising” a dozen of potential terrorists to prepare a terrorist attack, likely in #Italy
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Mar 14, 2018
Hello all. Sorry for the late hour, but I wanted to give you just some quick updates on #Italy’s political deadlock. As I had hinted here in the past, despite many discarded it in the 1st place, a sort of “populist” collaboration between LEGA and M5S is more likely
I tell you why
1. Today LEGA leader Salvini and M5S leader Di Maio had a phone call. It is the 1st actual, concrete contact between the two after #Italyelection2018, after pretending to ignore each other. It was “a frank and kind call”, they said. But what did they discuss on the phone?
2. Well, according to official statements, they primarily discussed the question of the two Parliaments speakers (House of reps + Senate, it is the first stel after elections), stressing the fact that the matter is “unrelated” to the formation of a potential government
Read 23 tweets

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