Thread by @antoguerrera

Hello all, I will shortly start a live-tweeting on #ItalyElection2018 night. I will try to keep you posted with all the latest news, exit polls, vote projections until late (tomorrow morning shift, ouch)🇮🇹
Meanwhile, here you can find a guide to the vote

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1. Turnout at 7 pm estimated at 57%. Not so much for #Italy standards. Not a good news for Renzi, in theory.
#ItalyElection2018

2. The Constitutional referendum turnout at 7 pm had a similar trend. Then (in 2016) the final turnout was 68,48%. If it stays so also today, it would be the lowest turnout in Italy republican history
In fact, it was 75% in 2013, 81% in 2008, 84% in 2006
#ItalyElection2018

3. Meanwhile, this is probably gonna be the protest against Berlusconi most appreciated by Berlusconi himself.
#femen
#Italy2018Elecitions

4. Final turnout estimated at 67-71%. Would be likely the lowest one in Italy's republican history. In theory not a good news for Renzi and a good one for populist parties
#ItalyElection2018

5. Meanwhile, fake news are proliferating online. Here one which falsely reports "found 500k electoral ballots with votes for PD (Renzi's democratic party). Already 9k sharings on Facebook. Wake up @facebook
#ItalianElection2018
palermo.repubblica.it/cronaca/2018/0…

6. Tic toc tic toc... just 27 minutes to go
#Italyelection2018

7. Seven minutes to the first OFFICIAL exit poll
#Italyelection2018

8. BREAKING: ITALY FIRST EXIT POLL
BERLUSCONI 13-16%
LEGA 13-16%
5 STARS 29-32%
PD 20,5-23,5%
LEU (left) 3-5%
#ItalyElection2018

9. (this was a RAI exit poll for the Senate. Camera exit poll very similar, according to RAI)

10. EXIT POLL COALITIONS (SENATE, RAI)

CENTRE-RIGHT 33,5-36,5
M5S 29-32
CENTRE-LEFT 25-28

#ItalyElection2018

11. EXIT POLL COALITIONS (LOW CHAMBER, RAI)
CENTRE-RIGHT 33-36%
M5S 29,5-32,5%
CENTRE-LEFT 24,5-27,5%
#Italyelection2018

12. BEWARE
1) Please don't take these exit polls for granted. Five years ago they got it wrong even by 6-7 points
2) Exit polls don't take in consideration first-past-the-post seats (1/3 of the total)
#Italyelection2018

13. It is to early to give facts now just with such exit polls. But we can say a few things:
- FIVE STAR 1st party? Kinda sure
- CENTRE-RIGHT 1st bloc? Very likely
- PD PERFORMANCE? Likely poor
- ITALY SPLIT IN 3 BLOCKS? Looks like that
#Italyelection2018

14. Populist and eurosceptic parties around 50 per cent in Italy right now. Quite alarming for Europe
#ItalyElection2018

15. SECOND EXIT POLL VERY SIMILAR TO THE 1ST ONE
#ItalyElection2018

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16. Is Italy going to shake Europe again? LEGA + M5S + Italy Brotherhood around 50%. More than half Italians MIGHT have voted for populist and eurosceptic parties, according to exit polls. Put your helmet on, in case of
#Italyelection2018

17. If exit polls are confirmed, it is extremely likely that even a Grand Coalition between Renzi's PD and Berlusconi will be very hard to build up. PD too weak and Berlusconi looks weaker than coalition partner LEGA
#ItalyElection2018

18. If exit polls are confirmed, Italy comes up as a very divided country: split in three political blocks. And also: it lookes like North of the country mainly for centre-right, centre slightly for PD, South massively for Five Star M5S
#ItalyElection2018

19. And also, if exit polls are right, the easiest govern to form might be one with Five Star and LEGA allied. That would be the most populist and the most eurosceptic govern of Italy EVER
#Italyelection2018

20. Just phantasizing, but: is a coalition between M5S and LEGA possible? M5S has always excluded any alliance. But this time can be different. This time they have a chance to govern. And LEGA may externally support their executive
#ItalyElection2018

21. EXIT POLL SEATS LOW CHAMBER (tecne mediaset)
CENTRE-LEFT: 113-163 seats
CENTRE-RIGHT: 214-264
M5S: 196-246
LEU (left): 16-22
TIE: 39
MAJORITY: 316
#ItalyElection2018

22. If exit polls are right, the populist front has the biggest chance ever to govern a country. Such a country: Italy.
#ItalyElection2018

23. Meanwhile, turnout is now expected to reach 74%, more than earlier predictions. Maybe still the lowest one in Italy republican history but this can change a few things, giving some relief to PD and Berlusconi. We'll see
#ItalyElection2018

24. BREAKING. FIRST VOTE PROJECTION (based on 12% votes)
M5S 33,1%
LEGA 17,3%
BERLUSCONI 14,1%
PD 18,7%.
If this trend will be confirmed, this is the end of Italy as we knew it
#ItalyElection2018

25. If this 1st projection is true, this would be an astonishing game changer in Italy (and Europe):
- Populist front ABOVE 50%
- DISASTER for traditional parties: Renzi + Berlusconi around 30%
- DISASTER for centre-left
- RENZI likely to resign if PD under 20%
#ItalyElection2018

26. BEWARE
Don't forget that all those percentages are related to seats on a proportional basis (2/3 of the total). The remaining seats (1/3 of the total) are chosen by first-past-the-post contests
#Italyelection2018

27. Some days ago I tried to explain why Renzi was likely going to suffer a massive defeat in #ItalyElection2018. Here you can find why: anatomy of a former wonder boy

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28. One of M5S leaders, Di Battista, is already talking of a likely "triumph". Then he adds delighted with a grin: "For the 1st time other parties will have to come to talk with us. It's the 1st time. And we'll set the rules"
#Italyelection2018

29. PD and centre-right representatives are already saying that a coalition with M5S is out of question. Centre-right ones are also confident that LEGA will not abandon their coalition. I am skeptical about this. LEGA can might be tempted, IMHO
#Italyelection2018

30. PROJECTION SENATE (RAI, 7% of votes)
M5S 31,8%
PD 19,6%
LEGA 15,9%
BERLUSCONI 14,2%
FDI (right) 4,4%
LEU 3,5%
#ItalyElection2018

31. PROJECTION SENATE SWG BASED ON ACTUAL COUNT (40%)
M5S 33.6%
PD 18.3%
LEGA 17.4%
BERLUSCONI 14.1%
FDI (right) 4%
LEU 3.3%
#ItalyElection2018

32. If this trend is confirmed, here are some scenarios are:
- M5S minority government with LEGA support (but M5S and LEGA might not have a majority at the Senate)
- new elections (very likely)
- Pd and Berlusconi look too weak to form a "grand coalition"
#ItalyElection2018

33. Another interesting point: if ever centre-right succeeds to get a Parliament majority and form a government, TAJANI (endorsed by Berlusconi) is out. According to coalition rules, SALVINI is going to be PM,cause LEGA is expected to be the 1st coalition party
#ItalyElection2018

34. LEGA vicesecretary Giorgetti: "First we will talk with our coalition allies, we know what to do". Note: he says "first". And after? Five stars? Simply doesn't rule it out, like Salvini in the past sometimes. Anyway, we'll see. No speculations.
#ItalyElection2018

35. ITALY RESULT PROJECTION SENATE RAI BASED ON ACTUAL COUNT (23%)

M5S 32.5%
PD 19%
LEGA 15.8%
BERLUSCONI 14.5%
FDI (right) 4.1%

#ItalyElection2018

36. UPDATE. There are still many IFs, but here are a few certain things in this #ItalyElection2018
- M5S 1st party
- Centre-right 1st coalition
- Italy split in 3
- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes
- Renzi's PD collapsing
- Perfect hung parliament looming

37. Another aspect that might make M5S success even bigger: all previous projections were mainly based on Senate, elected by Italian citizens aged 25 or older. For Chamber of deputies is 18 or older. Majority of the young vote for M5S in Italy. So, make 2+2...
#ItalyElections2018