Antonello Guerrera Profile picture
Mar 14, 2018 23 tweets 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Hello all. Sorry for the late hour, but I wanted to give you just some quick updates on #Italy’s political deadlock. As I had hinted here in the past, despite many discarded it in the 1st place, a sort of “populist” collaboration between LEGA and M5S is more likely
I tell you why
1. Today LEGA leader Salvini and M5S leader Di Maio had a phone call. It is the 1st actual, concrete contact between the two after #Italyelection2018, after pretending to ignore each other. It was “a frank and kind call”, they said. But what did they discuss on the phone?
2. Well, according to official statements, they primarily discussed the question of the two Parliaments speakers (House of reps + Senate, it is the first stel after elections), stressing the fact that the matter is “unrelated” to the formation of a potential government
3. Did the say the truth? Hard to say that. But let’s go more in depth. First of all, usually the choice of the Parliament speakers is not fully unrelated to the formation of government and executive. They are the 2nd and the 3rd most prominent roles in #Italy after the president
4. This means that their choice is usually made in relation to the government and usually is orchestrated by the first party in collaboration with the opposition. Apart from their institutional prominence, without the two speakers, the Parliament cannot legiferate.
5. But apart from this: both Salvini and Di Maio, on different occasions out of their call, have then repeated two similar issues: to cut politicians’ priviledges, as AGI agency tonight reports. Just a coincidence?
6. Of course, let’s be clear, this is far too little to say that LEGA and M5S are building up a common political platform to rule the country in the near future. But Di Maio and Salvini are undoubtedly getting closer. And the outcome can be anything from now on, I suppose.
7. For instance, some days ago, la Stampa newspaper reported a M5S internal opinion poll in which the outcome was: most militants prefer a collaboration with LEGA and Salvini instead of one with PD (centre-left). Astonishing but not that much if you know M5S enough
8. But, to get to the point: is a M5S-LEGA populist goverment or political collaboration really possible today? I explained that here several days ago (see below 👇🏻), when looked really unlikely to many. Now I’m giving you just some - important - updates
9. There is one thing that really divides LEGA and M5S: economics policies. LEGA want a flax tax down to 15% (such a radical move in Italy) and have a more “Trumpian” approach. M5S instead are more visionary, they want a universal basic income and a big welfare state.
10. This is the biggest hurdle for any potential sort of M5S-LEGA collaboration: either they soften their different stances on economics and then find a rational compromise or they might avoid such matters, which I think is an impossible case for any credible government
11. What is more, despite their rage against Europe institutions in the past, M5S and LEGA now look to diverge on such topics more than in the past on euro currency and EU. And that makes a potential alliance harder. I will try to explain this simple.
12. LEGA’s Salvini has never abandoned his very harsh rethoric against euro currency and EU. He wants to radically change them or, as last option, make Italy quit euro. Di Maio, instead, has changed his position on recent weeks. And not just by a little.
13. Despite previous contrary statements by several M5S leader (Grillo in frontline), now Di Maio pledges confidence in Europe, which must be reformed, yes. But he doesn’t talk anymore about abandoning EU and euro currency. And today Moscovici appreciated it between the lines.
14. To keep it short, now Di Maio and M5S look (or want to look) much more institutional, rational and less radical/instictive than in the past with respect to EU and euro matters. This might play a big role, both in Italy with President Mattarella and in Brussels
15. What is more, another hurdle to a M5S-LEGA alliance is Berlusconi. The problem is that Salvini’s LEGA still belongs to the centre-right coalition. LEGA Parliament representatives were elected under the centre-right coalition umbrella. And now taking them out of it is hard.
16. Indeed, according to a few articles, Berlusconi is reportedly furious towards Salvini flirting with M5S and Di Maio, after he was degraded by Salvini himself who is now the centreright leader because LEGA (unexpectedly) got more votes than Berlusconi’s FORZA ITALIA
17. Berlusconi would prefer a coalition government made up of the whole centre-right block joined by PD, but this is very unlikely as PD (centre-left, Former Renzi’s) would never accept (in theory) to govern with a populist xenophobic party like LEGA
18. On the other hand, Berlusconi publicy abhor M5S, more than once he compared them to a new Nazism, so it is very unlikely that he might ally with M5S together with Salvini, as Salvini himself would prefer
#ItalyElection2018 #Italy
19. This explains once more why the outcome of #ItalyElection2018 is the perfect deadlock for #Italy. As I personally hinted more than once immediately after the first exit polls, paradoxically a M5S-LEGA axis or new elections are still the most likely (but complicated) scenarios
20. At the same time, even these two scenarios are really hard to realize. Nobody wants new election here in #Italy. But every alliance or new grand coalition look impossible at this moment at least until a party decides to renounce to its political nature for a broader coalition
21. So let’s see what happens. I will keep you posted. Sure, a potential coalition LEGA-M5S would radically change #Italy and maybe also Europe: both Salvini and Di Maio have already stated that the 3% deficit threshold is meaningless under certain circumstances. Good night. 🌙
Ps. Just a quick thing I forgot: to go to new elections a new electoral law is anyway needed as the latest one (approved only last year) proved itself wrong on many aspects (oh, #Italy...). But who will negotiate and approve it? And how soon? It might take several months at least

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More from @antoguerrera

Jul 30, 2018
Daisy Osakue, a young talented Italian athlete, (👇🏻) was the case today in #Italy. There is a long recent list of allegedly racially-motivated attacks. Was Daisy attacked because she is black? Is #Italy racist? Or is #Italy becoming more racist, given the new government? THREAD
First of all, I must say that I will try to handle this thorny subject as much sensitive and deep as possible, trying to avoid easy and superficial simplifications, despite it is not simple given the Twitter shortness. But I will try to do my best.
1. There is a very common saying in #Italy: “Italiani brava gente”, which means “Italians are good people”. This motto spread easily after the Second World War. It was mainly a way for Italians to subtly distance themselves from the German Nazis, former allies. But is this true?
Read 28 tweets
May 30, 2018
How #Italy has plunged into the maybe worst political crisis of its recent history and why this man below, one of the most xenophobic & eurosceptic leaders, Matteo Salvini, is the real winner so far and might become the game changer of Italian politics in the future. THREAD 🇮🇹
1. Let's start from the second point. Why a far right leader like Salvini, who distinguished himself in the past for his rash and violent attacks against migrants and Europe, is supposed to gain more votes and getting more and more decisive in the next months? Let's see.
2. First reason of all: the worldwide populist Zeitgeist. Ok, but there are many more specific reasons related to Italy and what happened in the last few months. In a few words, Salvini has won all his political bets, so far. And he is getting more and more influential.
Read 34 tweets
May 14, 2018
Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹
1. As I have been personally saying since the first election results (see here ) and despite a broad general skepticism on it in #Italy, a LEGA-M5S government was the only possible, given the circumstances after the vote. So, now we are very close to it.
2. Five Stars Movement (M5S) leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini have been negotiating for days on a coalition contract (like in Germany). There have reportedly agreed on many points (we'll see later). But the big hurdle is: who is going to be the new Prime Minister?
Read 34 tweets
Apr 5, 2018
What is going on in #Italy after March 4th elections and the subsequent political deadlock? A quick and concise update on the thrilling party negatiotions/talks that officially started yesterday. Thread coming up shortly. 🇮🇹
1. Here I am (sorry I had to get some food at the 24h supermarket 😊). Well, the deadlock stays but there are some very interesting news that, at least, keep new elections at bay for now. And, beside the M5S-LEGA populist liaison, there is a new potential alliance at sight
2. But let’s go through it. The first thing is that M5S populist and young leader Di Maio has explicitly opened to an alliance either with right-wing LEGA or with centre-left PD (Renzi’s party). “Let’s make a coalition pact like in Germany” Di Maio said.
Read 17 tweets
Mar 30, 2018
Yesterday a big anti-terrorism operation took place in #Italy. Several suspect terrorists allegedly linked to ISIS have been detained or are wanted. They’re connected to Anis Amri, the perpetrator of 2016 Berlin terrorist attack, were allegedly planning to attack Italy 👉🏻THREAD
1. Everything started with the arrest on Wednesday of Elmahdi Halili, 23 years old, a guy born in Italy of Moroccan origin and living near Turin. He had been already arrested a few years ago for terrorist propaganda, he is the writer of the 1st Italian known ISIS manifesto
2. This time something was different though. Halili seemed to have upgraded his terrorist linked activity: in fact he allegedly turned into a jihadist recruiter, according to prosecutors, “raising” a dozen of potential terrorists to prepare a terrorist attack, likely in #Italy
Read 17 tweets
Mar 4, 2018
Hello all, I will shortly start a live-tweeting on #ItalyElection2018 night. I will try to keep you posted with all the latest news, exit polls, vote projections until late (tomorrow morning shift, ouch)🇮🇹
Meanwhile, here you can find a guide to the vote
1. Turnout at 7 pm estimated at 57%. Not so much for #Italy standards. Not a good news for Renzi, in theory.
2. The Constitutional referendum turnout at 7 pm had a similar trend. Then (in 2016) the final turnout was 68,48%. If it stays so also today, it would be the lowest turnout in Italy republican history
In fact, it was 75% in 2013, 81% in 2008, 84% in 2006
Read 38 tweets

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