Thread by @antoguerrera

Hello all. Sorry for the late hour, but I wanted to give you just some quick updates on #Italy’s political deadlock. As I had hinted here in the past, despite many discarded it in the 1st place, a sort of “populist” collaboration between LEGA and M5S is more likely
I tell you why

1. Today LEGA leader Salvini and M5S leader Di Maio had a phone call. It is the 1st actual, concrete contact between the two after #Italyelection2018, after pretending to ignore each other. It was “a frank and kind call”, they said. But what did they discuss on the phone?

2. Well, according to official statements, they primarily discussed the question of the two Parliaments speakers (House of reps + Senate, it is the first stel after elections), stressing the fact that the matter is “unrelated” to the formation of a potential government
#Italy

3. Did the say the truth? Hard to say that. But let’s go more in depth. First of all, usually the choice of the Parliament speakers is not fully unrelated to the formation of government and executive. They are the 2nd and the 3rd most prominent roles in #Italy after the president

4. This means that their choice is usually made in relation to the government and usually is orchestrated by the first party in collaboration with the opposition. Apart from their institutional prominence, without the two speakers, the Parliament cannot legiferate.
#Italy

5. But apart from this: both Salvini and Di Maio, on different occasions out of their call, have then repeated two similar issues: to cut politicians’ priviledges, as AGI agency tonight reports. Just a coincidence?
#Italy

6. Of course, let’s be clear, this is far too little to say that LEGA and M5S are building up a common political platform to rule the country in the near future. But Di Maio and Salvini are undoubtedly getting closer. And the outcome can be anything from now on, I suppose.
#Italy

7. For instance, some days ago, la Stampa newspaper reported a M5S internal opinion poll in which the outcome was: most militants prefer a collaboration with LEGA and Salvini instead of one with PD (centre-left). Astonishing but not that much if you know M5S enough
#Italy

8. But, to get to the point: is a M5S-LEGA populist goverment or political collaboration really possible today? I explained that here several days ago (see below 👇🏻), when looked really unlikely to many. Now I’m giving you just some - important - updates

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @antoguerrera view original on Twitter

9. There is one thing that really divides LEGA and M5S: economics policies. LEGA want a flax tax down to 15% (such a radical move in Italy) and have a more “Trumpian” approach. M5S instead are more visionary, they want a universal basic income and a big welfare state.
#Italy

10. This is the biggest hurdle for any potential sort of M5S-LEGA collaboration: either they soften their different stances on economics and then find a rational compromise or they might avoid such matters, which I think is an impossible case for any credible government
#Italy

11. What is more, despite their rage against Europe institutions in the past, M5S and LEGA now look to diverge on such topics more than in the past on euro currency and EU. And that makes a potential alliance harder. I will try to explain this simple.
#Italy
#ItalyElection2018

12. LEGA’s Salvini has never abandoned his very harsh rethoric against euro currency and EU. He wants to radically change them or, as last option, make Italy quit euro. Di Maio, instead, has changed his position on recent weeks. And not just by a little.
#ItalyElection2018
#Italy

13. Despite previous contrary statements by several M5S leader (Grillo in frontline), now Di Maio pledges confidence in Europe, which must be reformed, yes. But he doesn’t talk anymore about abandoning EU and euro currency. And today Moscovici appreciated it between the lines.

14. To keep it short, now Di Maio and M5S look (or want to look) much more institutional, rational and less radical/instictive than in the past with respect to EU and euro matters. This might play a big role, both in Italy with President Mattarella and in Brussels
#Italy

15. What is more, another hurdle to a M5S-LEGA alliance is Berlusconi. The problem is that Salvini’s LEGA still belongs to the centre-right coalition. LEGA Parliament representatives were elected under the centre-right coalition umbrella. And now taking them out of it is hard.

16. Indeed, according to a few articles, Berlusconi is reportedly furious towards Salvini flirting with M5S and Di Maio, after he was degraded by Salvini himself who is now the centreright leader because LEGA (unexpectedly) got more votes than Berlusconi’s FORZA ITALIA
#Italy

17. Berlusconi would prefer a coalition government made up of the whole centre-right block joined by PD, but this is very unlikely as PD (centre-left, Former Renzi’s) would never accept (in theory) to govern with a populist xenophobic party like LEGA
#ItalyElection2018
#Italy

18. On the other hand, Berlusconi publicy abhor M5S, more than once he compared them to a new Nazism, so it is very unlikely that he might ally with M5S together with Salvini, as Salvini himself would prefer
#ItalyElection2018 #Italy

19. This explains once more why the outcome of #ItalyElection2018 is the perfect deadlock for #Italy. As I personally hinted more than once immediately after the first exit polls, paradoxically a M5S-LEGA axis or new elections are still the most likely (but complicated) scenarios

20. At the same time, even these two scenarios are really hard to realize. Nobody wants new election here in #Italy. But every alliance or new grand coalition look impossible at this moment at least until a party decides to renounce to its political nature for a broader coalition

21. So let’s see what happens. I will keep you posted. Sure, a potential coalition LEGA-M5S would radically change #Italy and maybe also Europe: both Salvini and Di Maio have already stated that the 3% deficit threshold is meaningless under certain circumstances. Good night. 🌙

Ps. Just a quick thing I forgot: to go to new elections a new electoral law is anyway needed as the latest one (approved only last year) proved itself wrong on many aspects (oh, #Italy...). But who will negotiate and approve it? And how soon? It might take several months at least