Thread by @felicitycallard

OK, here goes.

My current "What happened around pensions, USS & UUK in 2015?" folder. [This follows on from: threadreaderapp.com/thread/9731361…].

Same aim as the one from 2014: to serve the #ucustrike #ussstrike. Please distribute / send additions / corrections.

First, I need to add a couple of missing things to the 2014 timeline. I was trying to find Imperial College London’s response to UUK on USS’s consultation, but the link on their website no longer works. But it has been stored elsewhere. #ucustrike #ussstrikes

25 Nov 2014 [from doc properties] "Imperial College London’s response to UUK on USS’s consultation" warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…. They strongly question the assumptions within the model, & argue for greater transparency #ussstrikes #ucustrike

20 Nov 2014: Imperial College London's "Report on USS Pension Valuation
Working party on pension valuation". Note the key points from the Executive Summary warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…

20 Nov 2014: Imperial College London's "Report on USS Pension Valuation | Working party on pension valuation". warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…. The working party was largely drawn from the mathematics department #ussstrikes #ucustrike

Call out to those working in #histsci & #STS on mathematics/statistics. What should I/we be reading to understand central contributions of mathematicians & statisticians in contesting USS/UUK assumptions?

Back to 2015. I finished 2014 with Bill Galvin's letter of 18 Dec to Jane Hutton & Saul Jacka warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… (Hutton & Jacka's ltr re 'mistakes & misinformation' was sent to Anton Muscatelli but passed on by him to USS; see warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…) #ucustrike #ussstrikes

12 Jan 2015: Jane Hutton & Saul Jacka respond to Bill Galvin's letter. Read the whole letter. warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… First page attached. warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… … #ussstrikes #ucustrike

12 Jan 2015: Jane Hutton & Saul Jacka's response to Bill Galvin's letter warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…. Close of letter particularly important (UUK's 22 Oct submission to which they refer can be found here: blogs.warwick.ac.uk/files/dennisle… (p.7)) #ussstrike #ucustrike

15 Jan 2015: Hutton reports she has finally received letter from Muscatelli 'acknowledging the error in the life expectancy statements. He did not apologise, nor has a correction been published.' See her/Jacka's ltr (17 Nov 2014) warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…

18 Jan 2015: Dennis Leech blog post "Is the USS de–risking deficit based on sound thinking about the universities' intentions?" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… – in which he reflects on UUK Response to USS Consultation (2 Dec 2014) employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/… #ucustrike #ussstrike

26 Jan 2015: Dennis Leech blog post "Worrying dogmatism of the USS trustees" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/mo… He reflects on Bill Galvin's letter of 18 Dec 2014 to Hutton/Jacka warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… 1st half of blog post attached.

26 Jan 2015: Dennis Leech blog post "Worrying dogmatism of the USS trustees" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/mo… … He reflects on Bill Galvin's letter of 18 Dec 2014 to Hutton/Jacka warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… … 2nd half of blog post attached.

29 Jan 2015: USS EPF news item: "Update on the USS - Update 29 January 2015" employerspensionsforum.co.uk/epf-news/updat…

29 Jan 2015 update on EPF website links to 2 docs. The first is "The Joint Negotiating Committee (JNC) proposal for reform of the USS - A Summary for USS Members, 29th January 2015". Author in doc properties is Alistair Jarvis employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/… #ucustrikes #ucustrike

29 Jan 2015 "The Joint Negotiating Committee (JNC) proposal for reform of the USS - A Summary for USS Members, 29th January 2015" closes with a section on the legal status of the document employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/… … #ucustrikes #ucustrike

29 Jan 2015 update on EPF website links to 2 docs. The second is "A briefing for employees - ‘What do the proposed USS reforms mean for me?’" Author in doc properties is Alistair Jarvis. employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/… #ucustrike #ussstrike

29 Jan 2015 Incidentally, you can, today (18 March 2018) buy the online benefits estimator website (benefitestimator2015.com) mentioned on the first page of the briefing for $499 (employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/…) #ucustrike #USSstrikes

29 Jan 2015 "A briefing for employees - ‘What do the proposed USS reforms mean for me?’" [author in doc properties: Alistair Jarvis] Whole thing is worth reading; look at how, specifically, each answer addresses the question employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/…

#ucustrike #ussstrike

29 Jan 2015 "A briefing for employees - ‘What do the proposed USS reforms mean for me?’" employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/…
[author in doc properties: Alistair Jarvis]
2 examples.

Q: Is this the first step towards providing all USS benefits on a DC basis? (see p.3)

29 Jan 2015 "A briefing for employees - ‘What do the proposed USS reforms mean for me?’" employerspensionsforum.co.uk/sites/default/… …
[author in doc properties: Alistair Jarvis]
2nd example.

Q: How confident are the stakeholders & the Trustee that we will not be back here in 3 years’ time?

24 Jan 2015 [out of chronological order]: Dennis Leech blog post "Correspondence between actuarial scientists and USS trustees very revealing" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/mo…
[incidentally, notice use of term 'herd' again]

#ucustrike #ussstrikes

12 Feb 2015: Dennis Leech blog post "USS doublethink" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… #ucustrike #ussstrikes

8 Feb 2015 [out of chronological order]: @FT: "Listed: highest-paid pension fund CEOs | Multimillion-dollar salaries at some of the world’s largest schemes has prompted condemnation" ft.com/content/623683… Article includes section on USS #ucustrike #ussstrikes

16 Feb 2015: Dennis Leech blog "Why the UCU will find it hard to get any credit from the USS" dealhttps://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/entry/why_the_ucu/
#ucustrike #ussstrikes

21 Feb 2015: @Telegraph "Final salary pension? Your retirement income is at risk". Alan Rubenstein, CEO of Pensions Protection Fund (PPF), warns that for many, their DB pensions might not be safe telegraph.co.uk/finance/person…

#ussstrikes #ucustrike

22 Feb 2015: Dennis Leech contests the logic of the @telegraph article blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… #ucustrike #ussstrikes

23 Feb 2015: Dennis Leech blog blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… -- with an implicit reference back to the Pensions Protection Fund article from @Telegraph that appeared 2 tweets ago telegraph.co.uk/finance/person…

17 Feb 2015 [out of chronological order]: @JoWolffBSG "The university final salary pension scheme is a parable for our times". Strapline: "The final salary scheme has to give way, but this creates an equality issue ... " theguardian.com/education/2015…

28 Feb 2015: Jane Hutton reports that she received a reply re her complaint to USS re life expectancy statements. She notes she is 'not satisfied with the reply, and will take the matter further'. Is this reply from USS stored anywhere? warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… #ussstrikes

12 March 2015: Dennis Leech blog "The USS agreement is not a basis for a lasting settlement" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… #ucustrike #ussstrike

I've tried to find USS circular "2014 Formal Valuation: information for members", Dec 2014 that Dennis Leech refers to in blog post above. No luck yet with Wayback Machine. Can anyone help? NB We shd note that the redesign of USS website makes it more difficult to find things.

17 March 2015: Dennis Leech "USS issue is fundamentally an intellectual dispute" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… #ucustrike #ussstrikes "The fact that so many university managements are unthinkingly following the USS management & going along with this is a real intellectual failure ..."

17 March: @ProfPensions reports that "USS hires chief financial risk officer" responsible for "overseeing the integration of all risk management strategies" professionalpensions.com/professional-p… (paywall that I can't get behind) #ucustrikes #ussstrikes

USS website also reports the hiring of a new Chief Financial Risk Officer web.archive.org/web/2015052804… #ussstrikes #ucustrike

21 March 2015: Dennis Leech blog "Suggestions for member responses to the USS consultation" – in light of their own understanding "& the information & mis-information which has been circulated by UUK & the USS trustees" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…
#ucustrike #ussstrikes

21 March 2015: Dennis Leech blog "Suggestions for member responses to the USS consultation". This is a long blog entry. I've excerpted 2 parts of it. Part 1 blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…

21 March 2015: Dennis Leech blog "Suggestions for member responses to the USS consultation". This is a long blog entry. I've excerpted 2 parts of it. Part 2 blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… …

21 March 2015: Dennis Leech blog blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… – all the links mentioned (e.g. to First Actuarial report) are available in my "What happened around pensions, USS & UUK in 2014?" folder threadreaderapp.com/thread/9731361…

26 March 2015 [date from doc properties]: Nicholas Barr "What reform directions for USS?"warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…

26 March 2015: Nicholas Barr "What reform directions for USS?"warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis…. The paper ends with section 6: Strategic questions

27 March 2015: Jane Hutton reports that she & Saul Jacka were invited by Bill Galvin, CEO of USS, to meet him in London 'in a spirit of openness and transparency'. She provides an account of the meeting & who was present warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statis… #ucustrike #ussstrikes

27 March 2015: Conversation between Bill Galvin, Jane Hutton, Saul Jacka et al. Dennis Leech comments on those present in that meeting in his blog of 1 April 2015 blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…

27 March 2015: USS Consultation announced on USS website web.archive.org/web/2015041906…. Consultation page available here: web.archive.org/web/2015041202… #ucustrike #USSstrikes

[Archival & procedural point:] The redesign of the USS website [& hence need to use Wayback Machine], & the patchy coverage of relevant items on the UUK website are making this a laborious process. Also, a lot of the relevant links are now dead. 1/2

ussconsultation.co.uk is now for sale. Only thing I found using Wayback Machine is attached web.archive.org/web/2015081605…. Are there items stored on new uss.co.uk? Any one care to help? What are policies of USS & UUK around easy access to historical material?
2/2

USS spring consultation: "Consultation by Employers with Affected Employees on Proposals for Changes for Changes to Universities Superannuation Scheme" document [doc properties has 12 March 2015 as creation date] imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… #ussstrikes #ucustrike

USS spring consultation 2015: Important question: Is this doc imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… stored on current USS website, or in the Wayback machine? I haven't been able to locate so far. Much of the material I'm posting I've gleaned from other websites (& not from UUK, USS, etc)

30 March 2015: Dennis Leech: "Very misleading statement by the USS trustee" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… focuses on "Background information: Scheme funding position" (pp. 11–12 of imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…. Both pages are reproduced here #USSstrikes #ucustrike

30 March 2015: Dennis Leech blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… describes funding background from trustee (pp. 11–12 USS imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…) as 'highly misleading to say the least' & asks 'whether the trustee is fulfilling its fiduciary duty to always act in...best interests of members'

30 March 2015: Dennis Leech blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… …, wrt 'funding background from trustee' (pp. 11–12 USS imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… …) discusses contested issue of life expectancy, and uses phrase 'follow the herd' to describe USS

30 March 2015: Dennis Leech blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en… … …, wrt 'funding background from trustee' (pp. 11–12 USS consultation imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… … …) critiques behaviour of both USS & of universities #ussstrikes

31 March 2015: Mike Otsuka lse.ac.uk/researchAndExp… provides an extensive account of his thinking in relation to the USS consultation. Excerpts of the long post are attached. facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…

31 March 2015: Mike Otsuka lse.ac.uk/researchAndExp… critiques USS consultation's proposal to refuse UUK's compromise & argues 'irreversible steps should not now be taken which presuppose a given outcome' to any 'review of the contested funding methodology' facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…

31 March 2015: Mike Otsuka, facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…, links to a note defending First Actuarial's approach to the valuation (ucu.org.uk/media/6937/UCU…). Web link no longer works, but Otsuka's note (updated 23 Oct 2015) is available here drive.google.com/file/d/1R2A40M…

2 April 2015: Dennis Leech blog post "UUK gibberish about USS" blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…, in which he comments on "USS - the need for reform" which he states was published by UUK as part of consultation document.

Trying to track down "USS – the need for reform", currently without success. *Can anyone help?* I found another UUK EPF doc w exactly same title [stored on SOAS website], but it's dated back to 2010. Would be interesting to compare the 2 docs soas.ac.uk/payroll/file62… #USSstrike

USS employer consultation doc (see March 18 tweets in this thread) on p.2 says:

'a paper setting out the need for reform, prepared by Universities UK, is available' at ussconsultation.co.uk' but that website is now not USS owned

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

I've been thinking a lot about the closed epistemic communities (ta @gailfdavies @CLIVEYB) & limited epistemic access to much of what is contained in grey lit documents from UUK/USS. Both are central to understanding this political moment #LiveSTSplus #USSstrike

In searching for "USS – the need for reform", I did find something I missed in Jan 2015 timeline: "The USS reform communications pack" (15 Jan 2015, by UUK EPF); author in doc properties is Alistair Jarvis. This I found on Manchester site, not UUK's documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?D…

While I haven't done super-thorough search for on UUK or EPF website, it doesn't seem to be easily available on either.

Much UUK/EPF/USS documentation survives through being stored on various university websites, not, it seems, on websites of orgs that produced it. #USSstrike

Please note I corrected above tweet--in a follow on tweet--very shortly after posting.The exact document stored on Manchester website doesn't seem to be stored at UUK/EPF, but much of content within that doc is still available on the EPF website under news item for 29 Jan 2015.

But content is not exactly the same. There is a section in Comms pack stored in Manchester site titled "Why is reform of the USS both necessary & urgent?" (documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?D…, p.12), which doesn't appear to be in either of docs here: employerspensionsforum.co.uk/epf-news/updat…

In section "Why is reform of the USS both necessary and urgent?" (pp. 12-13) documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?D… (author in doc properties Alistair Jarvis), there is discussion of the "increasingly competitive global education market"

13 March 2015 [out of chronological order]: "USS: formal consultation responses" from UCU. Provides "points for members to consider in response to the prompt questions" ucu.org.uk/circ/pdf/UCUHE…

16 March 2015 [date from doc properties]: Guidance for USS Consultation from Keele UCU keeleucu.co.uk/wp-content/upl…. Has section on "The need for a more meaningful valuation method." #USSstrike

16 March 2015: Keel UCU "Guidance for USS Consultation". Amongst its sources (which include blogs.warwick.ac.uk/files/dennisle…), it includes recent article in 'The Actuary', by former vice-chair of Bank of England, critical of thinking behind derisking theactuary.com/features/2015/…

5 March 2015: "Riders on the storm": 'Instead of pension & life funds acting as economic stabilisers, they are compounding instability in financial markets. Ashok Gupta explains why a more long-term approach is recommended by a Bank of England study' theactuary.com/features/2015/…

2 April 2015 [back to chronological order]: EPF news item "USS Employer Consultation": Click for further information on the USS Employer Consultation which commenced on 16 March 2015 and will end on 22 May 2015. But it is no longer possible to click.

2 April 2015: EPF news item "USS Employer Consultation": The previous tweet was missing its weblink: employerspensionsforum.co.uk/epf-news/uss-e…

6 April 2015: Mike Otsuka post: "DC contributions in the hybrid scheme will be too little too late", in which he argues there is "a fairly serious design flaw in the proposed hybrid DB/DC scheme." facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…

6 April 2015: Mike Otsuka post facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…: Otsuka links to 2 additional resources -- a modelling of "USS DB versus DC 10-40 yrs" drive.google.com/file/d/0B7G5ZY… & his earlier piece on CDC (dated 15 March 2015) facebook.com/mike.otsuka.9/…

7 April 2015: USS announces that Professor Sir David Eastwood is appointed as new Chairman of its trustee board web.archive.org/web/2015041906… [the web archive doesn't seem to have the actual page stored]

20 April 2015: "Modelling member outcomes. Proposed changes issued for consultation: 1/75ths accrual rate, £55,000 salary threshold, employee contribution rate of 8%" UUK 'heat map' showing proposed changes to benefits. Circulated in consultation period warwick.ac.uk/insite/news/in…

20 April 2015: "Modelling member outcomes". The 'heat maps' warwick.ac.uk/insite/news/in… model the impact of proposed changes to benefits for members of both the final salary & CRB sections of USS (according to income & years till retirement). Here's the hybrid v. CRB maps (pp. 5-6)

20 April 2015: "Modelling member outcomes". The 'heat maps' warwick.ac.uk/insite/news/in… model impact of proposed changes to benefits for members of both final salary & CRB sections of USS (according to income & years till retirement). Here's the hybrid v. final salary maps (pp. 7-8)

Incidentally, is this stored anywhere on UUK website? I've downloaded from Warwick University website, which seems to have one of best repositories of grey literature relating to recent history of UUK/USS

25 April 2015: Dennis Leech post: "Misleading picture of USS pension changes in UUK 'heat map'". Leech claims 'The figures are actually very misleading and disingenuous because they use over-optimistic assumptions & selective evidence' blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…

25 Apr 2015: Leech: "Misleading picture of USS pension changes in UUK 'heat map'". Leech raises possibility of 'pension misspelling', criticises methods used to value pension funds, & anticipates that in future DC section will expand or entirely replace DB blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…

Asides from Naomi Oreskes (histsci.fas.harvard.edu/people/naomi-o…), who else should I/we be reading to understand scientific consensus & dissent in sciences involving complex, probabilistic forecasting? #LiveSTSplus

2 April 2015 [out of chronological order]: The Pensions Regulator: "Final guidance published on transfers from DB to DC schemes" thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/press/pn15-21.…

11 May 2015: Ros Altmann appointed Pensions Minister at Department for Work & Pensions ft.com/content/8986f5…

19 May 2015: Dennis Leech comments on appointment of Ros Altmann – Mike Otsuka adds a further comment blogs.warwick.ac.uk/dennisleech/en…

The 2 Ros Altmann pieces to which Leech & Otsuka refer are: (1) "Scare stories about USS liabilities are overblown" (10 Nov 2013) blogs.warwick.ac.uk/files/dennisle…

The second Ros Altmann piece to which Leech & Otsuka refer is: (2) A section of "What will the end of final-salary pensions mean for academics?" 12 March 2015 [I attach the last paragraph] timeshighereducation.com/features/what-…

6 May 2015 [out of chronological order] Aon: Global Pension Risk Survey 2015 aon.com/unitedkingdom/…, which comments on 'announcement in the 2014 Budget of DC pensions flexibilities, which came into effect in April 2015'