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Mar 26, 2018 11 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ It's time to deconstruct this article @cleantechnica republished on #Tesla Energy. I enjoy the site and there is some good reporting there, but I respectfully submit that this article is so materially misleading that it ought to be retracted. $TSLA…
2/ Let's start with this claim. Did you know that Tesla Energy grew by a 'whopping 516%' in 2017? Me neither. Because it didn't. $TSLA
3/ Tesla Energy consists of SolarCity and their battery business. It did $1.116B in combined revenue in 2017. How did these same businesses do in 2016? Go to the last SolarCity 10K. In 2016 SolarCity did $730.3MM in revenue. $TSLA
4/ It takes some math, but you can calculate how Tesla's battery business did in 2016 from the 10K Tesla published for that year. It did $97.3MM in revenue. $TSLA
5/ Therefore, in 2016, 'Tesla Energy' had revenues of $730.3MM + $97.3MM = $827.6MM. In 2017 it grew that business to $1.116B. That's 35% growth. 35% is impressive. But it is not 'a whopping 516%'. It's not even close. And extremely misleading. $TSLA
6/ As of Q4 2017, Tesla no longer breaks out the solar and battery businesses separately. But up until Q3 it did, and the results weren't pretty on the battery side. Negative gross profit (imagine on a net basis!) $TSLA
7/ Not to mention that solar installations collapsed in 2017 versus previous year $TSLA
8/ So what is $TSLA Energy worth? The author assumes they will double the business in 2018, assigns a 4.5X revenue multiple to the FORWARD number, and come up with 'over $10B and growing'. The author is implying that Tesla Energy is worth about $60 a share on it's own.
9/ SolarCity brought a mountain of debt to $TSLA. Here again from the last 10K they filed, for the year 2016. I challenge you to figure out the accounting, but it is several billion dollars of debt.
10/ Even in this environment, I doubt the equity value of a negative gross margin battery business + a solar business with a combined trailing 12 month revenue of $1.1B is anywhere near $10B, net of debt. $TSLA
11/ To the folks at @cleantechnica - republishing articles like this do more damage to the movement you support (green energy) than good. They provide fodder to people who claim this is all hype. Please consider retracting it from your site.

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More from @TESLAcharts

Oct 8, 2018
1/ On Friday, September 21, Fred published his weekly leak of $TSLA Model 3 production numbers. Below is a summary. Fred had them at 46,000 on that Friday.
2/ A week later, on Friday, September 28, Fred posted the news-moving headline that $TSLA had already achieved Model 3 production targets (51,000) with 'two days to go'. He also quoted 77,400 total cars produced, including Models S and X.
3/ $TSLA went on to report 53,229 Model 3s produced for the quarter, with 5,300 coming in the last week, and a total of 80,142, including Models S and X.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
1/ If you are on twitter debating the finer points of various potential debt refi options for $TSLA, please stop. Issuing equity would be very much easier and is what’s required here. Whatever is stopping them from issuing equity is also going to hinder a debt raise of any kind.
2/ Any refi deal would require due diligence. Nobody is investing billions of new money in a company under active regulatory investigation without a close inspection of the books. If a close inspection of the $TSLA books wasn’t a hinderance, they’d go the equity route.
3/ Now, it is not to say that $TSLA won’t *announce* some kind of raise - pending due diligence. They’ve already done that with $420 funding secured. I knew funding secured was a lie in part because per the blog post that day no due diligence had yet been done.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
1/ As long as we are going to use twitter to express what should and should not be legal in the world of business, I figured I'd contribute to the debate. $TSLA
2/ It should not be legal to demonstrate a technology that you know actually won't ever be practical in order to extract more regulatory credits. If a CEO were to do that, it should definitely be illegal. $TSLA
3/ It should not be legal to demonstrate a technology that you know actually doesn't work in order to facilitate a shareholder vote on a related party bailout. If a CEO were to do that, it should definitely be illegal. $TSLA
Read 7 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
1/ In this thread I will show, through simple arithmetic and logic, that if $TSLA experiences a material drop in demand in Q4, it will have very little choice but to urgently raise capital. And if it can’t raise capital? Big trouble.
2/ Before diving in, my typical disclosures: I’m long Tesla puts, this is not investment advice, do your own research, Elon is a baby jaguar, etc. $TSLA
3/ Let’s start by estimating $TSLA’s cash balance at the end of Q3. We turn to the infamous WSJ article from mid-August. Let’s take $TSLA at its word. Assume $TSLA ended Q3 with $2.5B in cash, up from $2.24 at the end of Q2.
Read 17 tweets
Sep 30, 2018
1/ Yesterday, while Elon was not admitting or denying committing securities fraud, the Shorty Air Force did a little flyover of Fremont. I'm pleased to present a summary of what was found.

H/T @Paul91701736
2/ This area seems to be particularly interesting. Let's have a closer look, shall we?

H/T @Paul91701736
3/ I didn't know it was legal to paint cars outside in the San Francisco area. Unless this is a meat packing factory of some sort, it seems very sus bro.

H/T @Paul91701736
Read 14 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1/ How did the credit market digest the news that the CEO of the most amazing example of The-CEO-Is-The-Stock ever was charged with fraud by the SEC? Let's have a look. $TSLA
2/ The flagship straight bond blew out to very near the all-time high yield. This bond is due in 2025. With an 84 handle and an 8.3% yield to maturity, the bond market is basically closed to $TSLA.
3/ The credit default swaps on those bonds blew out to very near the all-time high cost to insure. You don't have to be an expert in the CDS market to know this isn't a good sign. This market is pricing in a very serious risk of default. $TSLA
Read 5 tweets

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