1/ On Friday, September 21, Fred published his weekly leak of $TSLA Model 3 production numbers. Below is a summary. Fred had them at 46,000 on that Friday. 2/ A week later, on Friday, September 28, Fred posted the news-moving headline that $TSLA had already achieved Model 3 production targets (51,000) with 'two days to go'. He also quoted 77,400 total cars produced, including Models S and X.

1/ If you are on twitter debating the finer points of various potential debt refi options for $TSLA, please stop. Issuing equity would be very much easier and is what’s required here. Whatever is stopping them from issuing equity is also going to hinder a debt raise of any kind. 2/ Any refi deal would require due diligence. Nobody is investing billions of new money in a company under active regulatory investigation without a close inspection of the books. If a close inspection of the $TSLA books wasn’t a hinderance, they’d go the equity route.

1/ As long as we are going to use twitter to express what should and should not be legal in the world of business, I figured I'd contribute to the debate. $TSLA 2/ It should not be legal to demonstrate a technology that you know actually won't ever be practical in order to extract more regulatory credits. If a CEO were to do that, it should definitely be illegal. $TSLA

1/ In this thread I will show, through simple arithmetic and logic, that if $TSLA experiences a material drop in demand in Q4, it will have very little choice but to urgently raise capital. And if it can’t raise capital? Big trouble. 2/ Before diving in, my typical disclosures: I’m long Tesla puts, this is not investment advice, do your own research, Elon is a baby jaguar, etc. $TSLA

1/ Yesterday, while Elon was not admitting or denying committing securities fraud, the Shorty Air Force did a little flyover of Fremont. I'm pleased to present a summary of what was found.

$TSLA
H/T @Paul91701736 2/ This area seems to be particularly interesting. Let's have a closer look, shall we?

$TSLA
H/T @Paul91701736

1/ How did the credit market digest the news that the CEO of the most amazing example of The-CEO-Is-The-Stock ever was charged with fraud by the SEC? Let's have a look. $TSLA 2/ The flagship straight bond blew out to very near the all-time high yield. This bond is due in 2025. With an 84 handle and an 8.3% yield to maturity, the bond market is basically closed to $TSLA.

1/ Hey @elonmusk - since I’m such a nice guy, I’ll spell out for you how the @InsideEVs Jul/Aug deliveries report, and your retweet of it, boxes you in for whatever ‘deliveries burst week’ spin you are currently drafting. $TSLA 2/ There will be two headline numbers on deliveries. Total for the quarter, and some amazing number in the last week. Let’s just imagine 51,000 for the quarter and 10,000 during burst week. $TSLA

1/ In this thread, I will show by deductive reasoning that the @INSIDEEVS estimates of $TSLA Model 3 deliveries for July and August are almost certainly overstated by a material amount. 2/ We begin with the claim: according to @INSIDEEVS, $TLSA delivered 14,250 Model 3s in July and 17,800 for August, or 32,050 quarter to date. Add another ~500 or so for Canada (estimate provided by @ElectronComm), for a grand total of ~32,500.

1/ The magician’s tool is diversion to create false illusions. For 15 months the non-stop focus has been on production of Model 3s. 5k on the way to 10k per week etc. The deliveries diversion began with the ‘delivery hell’ tweet and Kimbal on CNBC talking like a robot. $TSLA 2/ If the magician is diverting attention away from production, I’m keenly interested in production. The underlying assumptions of all the 5k/10k talk have been that sustainable demand existed to support it and no unmanageable production constraints would impede it . $TSLA

1/ I get a lot of inquiries about my background and many dox attempts, so it is time to come clean. I was born Tesla Preston Fitzgerald Charts, first child of Jack and Jillian Charts, in Wichita, Kansas, in the shadow of the Koch Brothers global headquarters. $TSLA 2/ Jack Charts was a mid-level ad man for Koch, and as a bright young member of the Koch 'family' I was admitted to the prestigious but secretive Koch Kindergarten Academy for Future Planet Haters. Hidden in the basement of globally headquarters, KKAFPH was wonderful. $TSLA

1/ Attention $TSLAQ in the Los Angels area. Apparently there are hundreds of $TSLA vehicles hidden in this underground parking structure. Address is the corner of Campus Drive and Waterfront Drive, Playa Vista. 2/ I’m told the entirety of this building has $TSLA vehicles underground.

1/ Time for some fun. I decided to dig into $TLRY after opening a small put position late last week. I've literally never seen anything like this. If this isn't a sign of a bubble top - I don't know what is. Disclosure: not investment advice, do your own research, etc. 2/ So what is $TLRY? It is a cannabis company based in British Columbia, Canada. It recently completed an IPO in the US. Pot stocks are hot these days, of course, because Canada is about to go 'full legal' in the coming weeks.

1/ When this is over, a hard look at the $TSLA enablers is in order. Let's have a look at one of them now, since things seem to be accelerating. Nomura. It wasn't even a year ago when they decided to make a big splash with an outlandish price target. This was pre-Ark, of course. 2/ You could always count on Nomura to give Ben a run for his money, with a well-timed report meant to deflect whatever bad $TSLA news was flowing that day. The timing become too coincidental, the pattern too similar to ignore.

1/ You can always count on Ben Kallo from Baird to pump up the stock for Elon when the going gets tough. There's no silliness he won't promote. The day after the fakeover tweet, he dutifully came out and proclaimed $420 wasn't enough for $TSLA. Looks like a great call now. 2/ Last September, it was a nicely timed story about how the gigafactory was ramping up and it would be a huuuge advantage for $TSLA. Except batteries have been and continue to be the key constraint for Model 3 production. Another great call.

1/ Well hello there...
$TSLA 2/ I know that smell
$TSLA

1/ When you create no economic value and you must live from capital raise to capital raise, it is critical to manipulate the media so as to create the illusions needed to keep the pump going. This thread shows one small example of how $TSLA likely does this. 2/ The @business Model 3 tracker popularized by @tsrandall uses VINs spotted in the wild to estimate production rates. $TSLA knows this. To date, there are approximately 35,000 more VINs registered with the NHTSA than cumulative production, or about 10 weeks supply.

1/ I started this account after years of lurking. Accounts like @Tweetermeyer, @markbspiegel, @enertuition, Montana, Bosshogg, and many others provided me with useful information and free entertainment.
$TSLA 2/ Like most, I hesitated to bring my thoughts and skills to this unbelievable stock because I saw no upside in it for me. I might get doxxed. Some of the bulls are nuts and might try to disrupt my life. Blah blah blah. $TSLA

1/ On August 7, 2018, the CEO of a $50B+ public company took to twitter and - by any and all reasonable interpretations - committed one of the most glaring and high profile cases of securities fraud in history. $TSLA 2/ To believe that his motivations were anything other than to burn the 'haters and short sellers' is to believe in farting unicorns. His intent couldn't be more clear. His violation more flagrant. $TSLA

1/ Here is the unofficial $TSLAQ guide to the latest from Fred. Link here:

electrek.co/2018/08/30/tes…

$TSLA 2/ "Tesla is really behind on deliveries for the Model 3. It is insane they waited this long to address it, since the launch party was 13 months ago"

$TSLA

1/ Figured I'd get my two cents in on the Friday night news dump and the follow up 'behind the scenes' NYT piece. The first thing that jumps out is everything is Elon, in the first person. His deal. His proposal. Oh - and Elon hired ALL the bankers. $TSLA 2/ More first person talk, and of course, he's even more convinced he coulda woulda shoulda got funding... $TSLA

1/ I have some distinct memories from the afternoon of August 7. My feed was filled with less-than-gracious $TSLA bulls, taunting me for what an idiot shorty I was. I remember telling them to give this a few days, that this was likely the exact opposite of what it seemed. 2/ I remember brilliant members of $TSLAQ quickly coming out and saying the same thing. Saying it was a bs tweet born of desperation, not a clever move from a powerful sage. And here we are, 18 days later, after countless moronic press stories to the contrary, totally vindicated.