Co-owner of Russia's Summa group detained. It’s a very important story about Putin 4.0 Let me explain 1/…
2/ Info on reasons for Magomedov’s arrest is patchy. It happens amid conflict with Transneft over price of Summa stake in NMTP #coincidence
3/ Private Summa and Transneft, Russian oil pipeline monopoly, are about to end 7 years of troubled partnership in NMTP, Russia's largest port, where they jointly control 50,1% shares…
4/ Summa reportedly wants to get a fair market price for its crown jewel, while Transneft doesn't want to pay much. And when the conflict is at its peak, the police suddenly goes after some skeletons in Magomedov's closet (hard to find a Russian oligarch that doesn't have them)
5/ If it's really about NMTP, the outcome is easy to predict. It's going to be another Sistema vs. Rosneft, with SOE easily winning against an oligarch…
6/ Few years back It wasn't that easy for powerful CEOs of Russian SOEs to go after private assets they like just using courts and police. For example, Igor Sechin had to pay for many private assets that Rosneft acquired, and not only to TNK-BP, but to Igor Makarov's Itera
7/ Main reason for that - the Kremlin used to care about FDI and Russia's reputation among investors in London, NYC or Frankfurt. YUKOS affair or the whole @Billbrowder issue were seen as negative scenarios to be avoided. But not anymore following sanctions, CATSA etc.
8/ As conflict with the West deepens, many Russian players (powerful SOEs, friends of Putin, siloviks) feel emboldened to go after assets they like using simple tools. Putting your hard-grained opponent in prison is the best negotiation tactic for a business dispute in Russia
9/ Why care about what foreign investors will think, when FDI is not coming to Russia anyway because of sanctions? The argument about Russia's reputation in the West is loosing currency in the Kremlin, and so are people who were in charge of handling ties to EU/US business elite
10/ If Sechin can go after Bashneft, why can't other friends of Putin who are on the sanctions lists go after assets they like? Redistribution of assets may become major trend in Russia under Putin 4.0. Rising level of Russia-West confrontation following #Skrypal helps a lot

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More from @AlexGabuev

Oct 5, 2018
Disclosure of identities of 305 #GRU operatives, the largest intelligence blunder in modern Russian history is entirely of domestic making, and only all-penetrating corruption and state erosion are to blame. Here is how it works 👇1/
When crosschecking identities of #GRU operatives disclosed by the Dutch authorities, @bellingcat and @the_ins_ru went through the register of Russian traffic police. One of the cars was registered at Komsomolsky Prospekt 20, one of #GRU barracks that hosts cyber unit 26165 2/
There are 305 individuals who have their cars registered using the same address, and the database contains their full names, DOB, ID data, cell phone numbers etc. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 21, 2018
For the first time in history Chinese troops will participate in Vostok-2018, the largest miltary drills Moscow held since Zapad-81 that brought together troops from USSR and Warsaw Pact countries. This is a milestone for Sino-Russian military ties, and it's very important 1/
Since 2005 China has participated in numerous joint drills with Russia, mostly under SCO "Peace Mission" umbrella. It included 8 naval drills (in 2018 both navies trained in Baltic and East China seas) + 2 missile-defense computer simulations aimed at countering U.S. THAAD 2/
China participates in "Peace Mission" again this year, the drills will be held Aug 22-29 at Chebarkul range with 700 PLA personnel, 2 J-11 fighters, 4 JH-7 bomber-fighters, 6 transport jets + tanks and armored vehicles. But Vostok-2018 will bring it to a different level 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 27, 2018
Great read by @BethanyAllenEbr &co on @thedailybeast. Reason why Trump tries to be friends with Russia might be not only collusion/kompromat, but an idea of Henry the K that U.S. can work with Russia to box in China. Here is why it won't work 1/…
According to @thedailybeast, Kissinger has pitched his "Nixon reversed strategy" to @realDonaldTrump couple of times, and the administration was debating this idea. According to earlier report by @Reuters, Team Trump has discussed this idea with Russia 2/…
One should notice that in his opening remarks in Helsinki Trump has invited Putin to discuss China and "our mutual friend President Xi," a fact that has worried some ppl in China as @markhleonard noticed recently in the @FT 3/…
Read 13 tweets

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