Antonello Guerrera Profile picture
Apr 5, 2018 17 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
What is going on in #Italy after March 4th elections and the subsequent political deadlock? A quick and concise update on the thrilling party negatiotions/talks that officially started yesterday. Thread coming up shortly. 🇮🇹
1. Here I am (sorry I had to get some food at the 24h supermarket 😊). Well, the deadlock stays but there are some very interesting news that, at least, keep new elections at bay for now. And, beside the M5S-LEGA populist liaison, there is a new potential alliance at sight
2. But let’s go through it. The first thing is that M5S populist and young leader Di Maio has explicitly opened to an alliance either with right-wing LEGA or with centre-left PD (Renzi’s party). “Let’s make a coalition pact like in Germany” Di Maio said.
3. At first yesteday Di Maio stated that M5S will not ally at all with centre-right if Berlusconi is in it (only LEGA would be ok) and PD if former PM Renzi is still involved. Today he changed a bit his rethoric and it is quite decisive.
4. Today Di Maio said that M5S is available also to a coalition with PD “in its entirety”. So the issue Renzi seemed to be much less important today, if PD makes a deal with M5S on a few points of a shared coalition program, like Merkel and Spd have done in Germany.
5. I won’t bore you with all the shapes of the Machiavelian Italian politics, but Di Maio strategy is of a finest tactical quality, despite his young age. Vetoeing any involvement of Berlusconi and (at first) Renzi, Di Maio wants to divide and split both centre-right and PD
6. And this strategy may well work. Berlusconi is in trouble now. Today his centre-right coalition partner, Salvini, for instance, said a very important sentence with regard to a cooperation with Di Maio’s M5S: “Any other solution would be improvised, everyone understands that”
7. Is Salvini’s LEGA going to quit the centre-right coalition with Berlusconi and join alone M5S?
This is not impossible as I said more than once in the past. Berlusconi is the devil for many M5S militants and Salvini doesn’t defend anymore that often the integrity of centreright
8. Secondly, Di Maio and Salvini argued more than once recently about who should be the prime minister in case of a populist M5S-LEGA coalition. Di Maio sounds inflexible: “The PM position must go to M5S”, that is himself. Salvini has softened his position during the last days.
9. Right-wing, xenofobic and eurosceptic Salvini of course wants to become the new PM because he leads the most voted coalition (Di Maio the most voted party)
Today he basically asked Di Maio to be more flexible on the issue but he sounded less belligerent than in the past
10. And what about PD? Di Maio’s offer has likely divided even more the party, split into two factions: the (still?) largest one who wants to stay at the opposition and stay away from populists and those who instead think that a deal with M5S is possible. Di Maio’s strategy works
12. And you know what the funniest (& tragic) thing is? Despite now considering them a potential coalition partner, M5S (and its followers online) have always despised and offended PD. That’s also why, according to some polls, the majority of M5S members prefer LEGA to PD
13. So the huge dilemma for PD now is: should we strike a deal with those (M5S) who hate us in order to avoid a populist and eurosceptic government LEGA-M5S? Or better being the main opposition party now to be ready and politically “fit” for the next general election?
14. In any case, a government M5S-LEGA (as I supposed more than once in the past) is still the most likely one right now. Apart economy, M5S shares more issues with LEGA than PD. But Berlusconi who wants to stay in the game. Salvini has to pass over his dead body to join Di Maio.
15. We’ll see what happens in the next days, but Salvini and Di Maio look more and more on the same frequency, while PD is to split to be a reliable coalition partner.
16. Today president Mattarella ended the first round of formal negotiations with no deal reached. Next round will take place next week but informal talks will go on meanwhile. Anyway, new elections are more unlikely today. The President understood that a deal is possible.
17. Enough for now, won’t bore you any more tonight but I will keep you posted with all the most crucial developments from Italy. Good night 🇮🇹

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More from @antoguerrera

Jul 30, 2018
Daisy Osakue, a young talented Italian athlete, (👇🏻) was the case today in #Italy. There is a long recent list of allegedly racially-motivated attacks. Was Daisy attacked because she is black? Is #Italy racist? Or is #Italy becoming more racist, given the new government? THREAD
First of all, I must say that I will try to handle this thorny subject as much sensitive and deep as possible, trying to avoid easy and superficial simplifications, despite it is not simple given the Twitter shortness. But I will try to do my best.
1. There is a very common saying in #Italy: “Italiani brava gente”, which means “Italians are good people”. This motto spread easily after the Second World War. It was mainly a way for Italians to subtly distance themselves from the German Nazis, former allies. But is this true?
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May 30, 2018
How #Italy has plunged into the maybe worst political crisis of its recent history and why this man below, one of the most xenophobic & eurosceptic leaders, Matteo Salvini, is the real winner so far and might become the game changer of Italian politics in the future. THREAD 🇮🇹
1. Let's start from the second point. Why a far right leader like Salvini, who distinguished himself in the past for his rash and violent attacks against migrants and Europe, is supposed to gain more votes and getting more and more decisive in the next months? Let's see.
2. First reason of all: the worldwide populist Zeitgeist. Ok, but there are many more specific reasons related to Italy and what happened in the last few months. In a few words, Salvini has won all his political bets, so far. And he is getting more and more influential.
Read 34 tweets
May 14, 2018
Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹
1. As I have been personally saying since the first election results (see here ) and despite a broad general skepticism on it in #Italy, a LEGA-M5S government was the only possible, given the circumstances after the vote. So, now we are very close to it.
2. Five Stars Movement (M5S) leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini have been negotiating for days on a coalition contract (like in Germany). There have reportedly agreed on many points (we'll see later). But the big hurdle is: who is going to be the new Prime Minister?
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Mar 30, 2018
Yesterday a big anti-terrorism operation took place in #Italy. Several suspect terrorists allegedly linked to ISIS have been detained or are wanted. They’re connected to Anis Amri, the perpetrator of 2016 Berlin terrorist attack, were allegedly planning to attack Italy 👉🏻THREAD
1. Everything started with the arrest on Wednesday of Elmahdi Halili, 23 years old, a guy born in Italy of Moroccan origin and living near Turin. He had been already arrested a few years ago for terrorist propaganda, he is the writer of the 1st Italian known ISIS manifesto
2. This time something was different though. Halili seemed to have upgraded his terrorist linked activity: in fact he allegedly turned into a jihadist recruiter, according to prosecutors, “raising” a dozen of potential terrorists to prepare a terrorist attack, likely in #Italy
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Mar 14, 2018
Hello all. Sorry for the late hour, but I wanted to give you just some quick updates on #Italy’s political deadlock. As I had hinted here in the past, despite many discarded it in the 1st place, a sort of “populist” collaboration between LEGA and M5S is more likely
I tell you why
1. Today LEGA leader Salvini and M5S leader Di Maio had a phone call. It is the 1st actual, concrete contact between the two after #Italyelection2018, after pretending to ignore each other. It was “a frank and kind call”, they said. But what did they discuss on the phone?
2. Well, according to official statements, they primarily discussed the question of the two Parliaments speakers (House of reps + Senate, it is the first stel after elections), stressing the fact that the matter is “unrelated” to the formation of a potential government
Read 23 tweets
Mar 4, 2018
Hello all, I will shortly start a live-tweeting on #ItalyElection2018 night. I will try to keep you posted with all the latest news, exit polls, vote projections until late (tomorrow morning shift, ouch)🇮🇹
Meanwhile, here you can find a guide to the vote
1. Turnout at 7 pm estimated at 57%. Not so much for #Italy standards. Not a good news for Renzi, in theory.
2. The Constitutional referendum turnout at 7 pm had a similar trend. Then (in 2016) the final turnout was 68,48%. If it stays so also today, it would be the lowest turnout in Italy republican history
In fact, it was 75% in 2013, 81% in 2008, 84% in 2006
Read 38 tweets

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