Back in Berlin from this year's British-German #Königswinter Conference.
The best summary was incidentally provided by a border guard at Heathrow, who said to me upon seeing my destination:
"Please tell your friends we are still European". /1
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A few more impressions: Everything started off with a clear political signal as the German official delegation arrived in the UK en route from Dublin.
Main message: EU-27 are the priority, and Berlin is 100% behind Ireland. /2
Most striking was the mood between Germans and Brits:
Brexit now seems to be more and more an accepted reality, with less grudge.
The deep regret is still there, though with a willingness to look ahead. /3
Nevertheless, the German-British debate had the feeling of a couple that is close to settling its divorce, arranging where to meet occassionally after the UK moves out.
In particular for UK officials clear that EU is a forum for exchange that they will miss. /4
Joint declaration for a German-UK strategic dialogue is a start, but at the end only damage control exercise.
The two countries will be living in different worlds - at next year's Königswinter, the UK will have left the EU. /5
In discussions on world politics, classic roles seemed reversed - while Berlin is focused on concrete issues, London seemed occupied with the search for its place in the world post-#Brexit. /6
Finally, on the shape of EU-UK-relations, still a lot to negotiate for. #Brexit will not be reversed, but on issues like customs union, alignment with signal market, security cooperation there is a lot of flux below the surface. /ends
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Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government
First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.
Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
Second, in decision-making at the EU level they acted (largely) constructive. Voting data from the Council revealed no strong increase in vetos or 'no' votes after Eurosceptic parties entered nat. governments.
Exceptions to this are migration and institutional questions
Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.
Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.
UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
On transition, they echo EU call for full single market and customs union participation of the UK.
Even more, they call for a long transition and clear extension mechanism.
Otherwise, Japanese companies would need to trigger 'do deal' contigency planning.
Equally blunt are their positions on the future relationship, incl calls for
- no tarriffs
- the UK to remain within a customs regime with the EU
- regulatory coherence
- UK participation in EU programmes
In short, please don't change anything that might rock the boat.
The #Skripal case is very serious, and has the potential to become much more serious still. But it is also the first real test of UK position in foreign and security after #Brexit.
Mainly the EU institutions. The UK briefed its allies inter alia via the EU’s Political & Security Committee, and @eucopresident put #Skripal on the agenda of next week’s #EUCO. /2
First, sanctions. While it is far from clear whether the EU will currently back up the UK on sanctions ag Russia, it is equally clear that any sanctions put forward by the UK wd be far more effective if adopted at EU level /3
First major discussion point is of course that UK wants #Brexit transition to last until new relationship is in place.
3 things to learn from that:
a) A sense of realism is taking hold in Westminster on #Brexit. As long argued, a time limited transition is dangerous esp. for the UK, as it creates a new cliff edge. There is very little chance of a fully fledged future relationship negotiated, agreed and fully ratified by 2021
b) The EU strategy of making the UK ask for an extension has worked. If the EU had proposed this, it would have seemed like it wants to keep the UK close indefinitely.
Now it is clear that it is the UK, for economic reasons, that needs this potentially very long transition
The EU's guidelines for transition would mean all the obligations but no representation for the UK in the first 21 months after #Brexit.
More strikingly, it would put it in a worse position than Norway in terms of sovereinty. Here are five striking differences:
1. For every EU law, the EEA decides whether it has 'EEA relevance', i.e. for the single market. If not, or only partially, EEA countries only have to adopt it partially or not at all.
The UK will have to accept all EU law during transition, even if it is not relevant to the SM
2. EEA countries can agree with the EU on derogations when implementing EU law, e.g. geographical application, institutionals adjustments, exceptions.
No of EEA derogations until 2012:
Norway: 55
Iceland: 349
Liechtenstein: 1056