Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture
Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of EU/Europe Division at SWP (@SWP_Europe). All views are personal.
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May 24, 2018 7 tweets 3 min read
Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

Four points stand out in particular: First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.

Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
May 16, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular: First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
Apr 16, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
Back in Berlin from this year's British-German #Königswinter Conference.

The best summary was incidentally provided by a border guard at Heathrow, who said to me upon seeing my destination:

"Please tell your friends we are still European". /1 A few more impressions: Everything started off with a clear political signal as the German official delegation arrived in the UK en route from Dublin.

Main message: EU-27 are the priority, and Berlin is 100% behind Ireland. /2
Mar 16, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Japanese Business Represenation have today released a statement on #Brexit that is quite remarkable.

Very direct calls to UK and EU-27 on transition, future relationship and third party agreements

jbce.org/brexit/jbce-ke… On transition, they echo EU call for full single market and customs union participation of the UK.

Even more, they call for a long transition and clear extension mechanism.

Otherwise, Japanese companies would need to trigger 'do deal' contigency planning.
Mar 15, 2018 8 tweets 4 min read
The #Skripal case is very serious, and has the potential to become much more serious still. But it is also the first real test of UK position in foreign and security after #Brexit.

A balanced thread. /1 What’s missing after #Brexit?

Mainly the EU institutions. The UK briefed its allies inter alia via the EU’s Political & Security Committee, and @eucopresident put #Skripal on the agenda of next week’s #EUCO. /2
Feb 21, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
UK position paper on transition has leaked here: assets.bwbx.io/documents/user…

First major discussion point is of course that UK wants #Brexit transition to last until new relationship is in place.

3 things to learn from that: a) A sense of realism is taking hold in Westminster on #Brexit. As long argued, a time limited transition is dangerous esp. for the UK, as it creates a new cliff edge. There is very little chance of a fully fledged future relationship negotiated, agreed and fully ratified by 2021
Jan 29, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
The EU's guidelines for transition would mean all the obligations but no representation for the UK in the first 21 months after #Brexit.

More strikingly, it would put it in a worse position than Norway in terms of sovereinty. Here are five striking differences: 1. For every EU law, the EEA decides whether it has 'EEA relevance', i.e. for the single market. If not, or only partially, EEA countries only have to adopt it partially or not at all.

The UK will have to accept all EU law during transition, even if it is not relevant to the SM
Dec 20, 2017 5 tweets 2 min read
EU Commission has published the draft mandate for #Brexit transition talks.

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

A couple of noteworthy points:
/1
(1) As expected, Com demands that whole of EU acquis should continue to apply to the UK, incl. all four freedoms, Euroatom, justice and home affairs, even down to the current UK's opt out regime.

This crucially includes primacy of EU law and direct effect
Dec 8, 2017 8 tweets 3 min read
First impressions on joint report on first phase of #Brexit negotiations:

This is the first real milestone towards orderly Brexit. It should both put political fictions of exit from Brexit & chaotic no deal scenario to bed.

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
/1
Substantial agreements are in place for guarantuing citizen's rights, including legal protection for the foreseeable for 8 years after Brexit.

Key is 'reciprocal protection' and avoidance of any unnecessary administrative burdens.
/2
Nov 10, 2017 6 tweets 2 min read
Theresa May's new Op-Ed on #Brexit. telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/0…

Main proposal is to enshrine Brexit Day 29 March 2019 in UK law This is again a strategic choice for internal reasons (fix Brexit date!) with devastating consequences for UK position in negotiations