FWIW, my bet's on MV = PQ sticking around within #crypto with iterative extensions including some of those already put forth by @alexhevans@sall@wintonARK@sbmckeon and more (no disrespect to Jimmy here at all).
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2/ Everyone's welcome 2 their own opinion rn, the models + market will tell the truth over time. If MV = PQ proves a valid way to analyze the economies of #cryptonetworks, as it has proved useful in physical economies, then that will materialize clearly through the research & #'s
3/ As an identity, MV = PQ is a relatively harmless mathematical tool, fits nicely with mapping money flows, and dimensioning both the supply & demand sides of an economy.
4/ To begin, MV = PQ is overly simplistic, and that's where I believe extensions from Baumol-Tobin, Queueing Theory, Treasury Mgmt, etc etc, will come in & be tested over time. Equity valuations have grown to be enormously complex from relatively simple roots 🙂
5/ I'm also excited to see all the things we can learn & apply to #crypto from 100+ years of work surrounding MV = PQ and the Quantity Theory of Money. Lots left to dig up.
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1/ A PoS industry is rapidly emerging that will someday rival PoW in profits and wealth creation.
2/ That's billions in profit and tens of billions in wealth creation for PoS providers (at current PoW levels), with at least an order of magnitude of headroom.
3/ This is despite PoW & PoS having a shared destiny as commodity industries with thin margins.
PoW will converge on the cost of electricity and PoS on the cost of crypto-capital (?).
1/ While new crypto value capture mechanisms can rise to prominence in bull markets, they are tested, hardened and de-risked by bear markets.
2/ Only those that survive multiple crypto bear markets establish themselves as reliable “value capture mechanisms.”
3/ Store of value (SoV) = only crypto value capture mechanism that's significantly de-risked, but that doesn’t mean SoV is the only one that will ever work.
1/ Many tokens currently face stagnant cryptoeconomies, as supply was never spent or earned, but instead brought into existence via balance sheet swaps.
2/ “Balance sheet swaps”= investors in ICOs swapping assets with the issuer, giving birth to a native token without it ever having to go into *circulation.*
3/ Most ICO investors then held the token on their balance sheets, as they never planned to be on the supply-side or demand-side of the network.
1/ When studying non-fungible #cryptoassets, I'm seeing two types discussed: "functionals" and "investment instruments."
2/ "Functionals" are non-fungibles that are meant to be used, a means to access services like ticketing, voting, payment, and more. Best existing examples?
3/ "Investment instrument" non-fungibles are held for their store of value characteristics, be they solely digital things, or derivations of meatspace assets (real estate, art, cars, etc).
1/ Get ready for a predictable #crypto pattern: in the coming months, we will see an increasing number of #Bitcoin maximalists tormenting “altcoin investors” for straying from the mother ship.
2/ The maximalist drum will get louder as we go deeper into the bear market, with #bitcoin falling less than most other coins, and its dominance index growing. coinmarketcap.com/charts/#domina…
3/ #Bitcoin is the benchmark after all, the market beta of crypto, with most everything oscillating at a higher amplitude than $BTC.